Top 14 Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 14.79 | 11.56 | 3.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.09 | 4.78 | 0.30 |
| Montpellier | 4.63 | -0.21 | 4.80 |
| Clermont | 4.09 | 1.88 | 2.20 |
| Section Paloise | 3.58 | 2.21 | 1.40 |
| Stade Rochelais | 2.55 | 1.22 | 1.30 |
| Stade Francais | 2.05 | -2.17 | 4.20 |
| Lyon | 0.64 | -0.45 | 1.10 |
| Toulon | 0.63 | 3.49 | -2.90 |
| Racing 92 | 0.41 | 1.88 | -1.50 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.45 | 0.59 | -1.00 |
| Bayonne | -2.41 | 1.48 | -3.90 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.13 | -3.37 | -1.80 |
| Montauban | -17.59 | -10.00 | -7.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais | Mar 01 | 26 – 31 | 4.20 | FALSE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Bayonne | Mar 01 | 38 – 15 | 12.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Toulon | Mar 01 | 13 – 13 | 7.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Racing 92 | Mar 01 | 41 – 17 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 01 | 42 – 21 | 12.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montauban | Mar 01 | 68 – 13 | 37.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 02 | 39 – 17 | 3.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont vs. Montpellier | Mar 22 | Clermont | 6.00 |
| 2 | Montauban vs. Bayonne | Mar 22 | Bayonne | -8.70 |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique | Mar 22 | Racing 92 | 7.40 |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise | Mar 22 | Stade Rochelais | 5.50 |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Stade Francais | Mar 22 | Toulon | 5.10 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Lyon | Mar 22 | USA Perpignan | 0.70 |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain | Mar 23 | Stade Toulousain | -3.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »