Top 14 Predictions for Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 13.48 | 11.56 | 1.90 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.15 | 4.78 | 0.40 |
| Section Paloise | 4.56 | 2.21 | 2.40 |
| Toulon | 3.23 | 3.49 | -0.30 |
| Stade Rochelais | 2.90 | 1.22 | 1.70 |
| Clermont | 2.42 | 1.88 | 0.50 |
| Racing 92 | 1.77 | 1.88 | -0.10 |
| Stade Francais | 1.14 | -2.17 | 3.30 |
| Montpellier | 1.09 | -0.21 | 1.30 |
| Bayonne | -0.03 | 1.48 | -1.50 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.17 | 0.59 | -0.80 |
| Lyon | -1.36 | -0.45 | -0.90 |
| USA Perpignan | -6.79 | -3.37 | -3.40 |
| Montauban | -14.51 | -10.00 | -4.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 84 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain | Dec 21 | 19 – 41 | -7.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Montauban vs. Section Paloise | Dec 21 | 17 – 53 | -11.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Dec 21 | 33 – 31 | 8.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 | Dec 21 | 20 – 20 | 6.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne | Dec 21 | 49 – 17 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Clermont | Dec 21 | 26 – 20 | -3.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon | Dec 22 | 46 – 7 | 6.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Stade Francais | Dec 28 | Bayonne | 5.30 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Lyon | Dec 28 | Castres Olympique | 7.70 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles | Dec 28 | Clermont | 3.80 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Montauban | Dec 28 | Racing 92 | 22.80 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Montpellier | Dec 29 | Section Paloise | 10.00 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais | Dec 29 | Stade Toulousain | 17.10 |
| 7 | Toulon vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 29 | Toulon | 16.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »