Posts from January 2026 (5)

January 6, 2026

Vibe graphs

From Nicola Rennie on Bluesky, a bad graph found on LinkedIn:

and a correct version of the same graph

The bad version is probably from generative AI — as Nicola says, it is bad in ways that would take substantial effort to achieve in commonly-used software, ranging from the weird bar alignment to the incorrect lengths to the incoherent choice of colours to the Slovenioid flag to the spelling of Belgıun.  It’s also a bit vague about the data source, but that’s easy to achieve by hand.

The corrected version is a lot better, but brings out that this is actually hard to interpret. What’s a “foreign” language?  If you’re Welsh or Irish, can English count? Can Spanish count for the Basques? Less politically, if you’re Czech and you speak Slovak, is that a foreign language? Is it still a foreign language if you learned it before 1992?  If you grew up in Ghent, speaking Flemish and French, and learned English at school then you know one foreign language, but if you move to London do you suddenly know two foreign languages?

You might say “language that is not an official language of where you live”,  which is less ambiguous but does require identifying all the official languages of where you live. These are typically well-known within any the country or region (though there are people who profess to be confused about whether English is an official language of New Zealand), but they can be hard to determine by database search.

Kieran Healy, of Duke, gave an excellent talk last year about “Trustworthy Data Visualisation“: having graphs you can trust is not just about reproducibility in a simple sense, but about the systems that allow you to trust what you see: The important thing is not to lose sight of the collective, cooperative character of the whole enterprise.

Cross-national comparisons require that someone in each country has collected data, that the data answer the question you are interested in, that the biases and edge cases are either unimportant or the same across the countries, that the data have been accumulated, and that someone has drawn a graph.  In the past, all these steps were done by accountable people or organisations who were (or perhaps weren’t) honestly trying to provide good information. All these steps became more accessible over the past few decades, but we may be about to lose it all again.

You might well have good and sufficient reasons to trust your vibe graphics for your purposes.  It’s hard to see how other people can have good and sufficient reasons to trust them, though.

NFL Predictions for the Wild Card Games

Team Ratings for the Wild Card Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 9.51 1.60 7.90
Patriots 8.00 -6.88 14.90
Rams 7.89 3.32 4.60
Lions 5.54 9.26 -3.70
Bills 5.24 8.28 -3.00
Jaguars 4.94 -6.28 11.20
Texans 4.88 0.65 4.20
Vikings 3.09 2.67 0.40
Broncos 3.07 3.65 -0.60
Ravens 2.84 11.27 -8.40
Packers 2.80 5.92 -3.10
49ers 2.40 -3.05 5.40
Chargers 1.77 2.67 -0.90
Eagles 1.34 12.46 -11.10
Steelers 1.13 -0.33 1.50
Bears 0.49 -3.03 3.50
Bengals 0.48 3.45 -3.00
Colts -1.15 -5.52 4.40
Falcons -1.19 -3.22 2.00
Chiefs -1.92 3.00 -4.90
Browns -2.14 -9.54 7.40
Giants -2.18 -7.54 5.40
Saints -2.73 -5.63 2.90
Cowboys -4.12 -3.23 -0.90
Dolphins -4.39 0.72 -5.10
Buccaneers -4.55 3.86 -8.40
Commanders -5.09 2.74 -7.80
Raiders -6.18 -5.45 -0.70
Panthers -6.23 -7.28 1.10
Cardinals -7.86 0.58 -8.40
Titans -9.33 -9.40 0.10
Jets -10.49 -3.87 -6.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 272 matches played, 163 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 04 3 – 13 -4.60 TRUE
2 Buccaneers vs. Panthers Jan 04 16 – 14 2.90 TRUE
3 Falcons vs. Saints Jan 05 19 – 17 2.80 TRUE
4 Bills vs. Jets Jan 05 35 – 8 14.30 TRUE
5 Bears vs. Lions Jan 05 16 – 19 -4.50 TRUE
6 Bengals vs. Browns Jan 05 18 – 20 5.80 FALSE
7 Broncos vs. Chargers Jan 05 19 – 3 -0.80 FALSE
8 Texans vs. Colts Jan 05 38 – 30 6.70 TRUE
9 Jaguars vs. Titans Jan 05 41 – 7 11.30 TRUE
10 Rams vs. Cardinals Jan 05 37 – 20 16.60 TRUE
11 Raiders vs. Chiefs Jan 05 14 – 12 -5.30 FALSE
12 Vikings vs. Packers Jan 05 16 – 3 -1.40 FALSE
13 Patriots vs. Dolphins Jan 05 38 – 10 10.10 TRUE
14 Giants vs. Cowboys Jan 05 34 – 17 -0.20 FALSE
15 Eagles vs. Commanders Jan 05 17 – 24 10.60 FALSE
16 Steelers vs. Ravens Jan 05 26 – 24 -1.80 FALSE

Predictions for the Wild Card Games

Here are the predictions for the Wild Card Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rams Jan 11 Rams -13.10
2 Bears vs. Packers Jan 11 Packers -1.30
3 Jaguars vs. Bills Jan 12 Jaguars 0.70
4 Eagles vs. 49ers Jan 12 49ers -0.10
5 Patriots vs. Chargers Jan 12 Patriots 7.20
6 Steelers vs. Texans Jan 13 Texans -2.70

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.39 13.41 -3.00
Glasgow 9.28 6.18 3.10
Stormers 8.85 4.17 4.70
Bulls 5.47 8.86 -3.40
Munster 2.90 3.65 -0.80
Ulster 2.08 -3.24 5.30
Edinburgh 2.02 2.67 -0.70
Lions -0.02 -1.19 1.20
Sharks -1.48 1.29 -2.80
Ospreys -2.05 -2.15 0.10
Connacht -2.48 -1.39 -1.10
Cardiff Rugby -3.37 -2.74 -0.60
Scarlets -3.54 -0.54 -3.00
Benetton -4.51 -2.32 -2.20
Dragons -11.13 -15.66 4.50
Zebre -12.44 -11.02 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 68 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 28 – 5 -8.50 FALSE
2 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 33 – 22 2.20 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 28 – 3 -1.40 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 04 22 – 23 1.00 FALSE
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Jan 04 13 – 8 5.50 TRUE
6 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jan 04 14 – 15 0.90 FALSE
7 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 04 52 – 17 12.60 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jan 04 47 – 10 27.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Bulls Jan 24 Edinburgh 3.60
2 Munster vs. Dragons Jan 24 Munster 21.00
3 Ospreys vs. Lions Jan 24 Ospreys 5.00
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster Jan 25 Scarlets 1.40
5 Connacht vs. Leinster Jan 25 Leinster -10.90
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Jan 25 Stormers 12.30
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Jan 25 Cardiff Rugby 8.10
8 Zebre vs. Glasgow Jan 25 Glasgow -14.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.78 11.56 2.20
Bordeaux Begles 5.72 4.78 0.90
Section Paloise 3.82 2.21 1.60
Stade Rochelais 3.62 1.22 2.40
Clermont 3.04 1.88 1.20
Montpellier 2.52 -0.21 2.70
Stade Francais 1.79 -2.17 4.00
Toulon 1.54 3.49 -2.00
Racing 92 1.50 1.88 -0.40
Castres Olympique -0.18 0.59 -0.80
Bayonne -1.25 1.48 -2.70
Lyon -1.48 -0.45 -1.00
USA Perpignan -6.10 -3.37 -2.70
Montauban -15.43 -10.00 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Jan 04 62 – 20 8.70 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Jan 04 22 – 17 0.70 TRUE
3 Montauban vs. Clermont Jan 04 19 – 34 -11.60 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Jan 04 62 – 22 8.40 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jan 04 33 – 15 7.70 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 04 30 – 27 -14.60 FALSE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Jan 05 66 – 0 5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Jan 25 Bayonne 5.40
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Jan 25 Bordeaux Begles 10.40
3 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Jan 25 Racing 92 9.50
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Jan 25 Stade Toulousain 16.50
5 Toulon vs. Montpellier Jan 25 Toulon 5.50
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montauban Jan 25 USA Perpignan 15.80
7 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 26 Clermont 5.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 10.21 10.30 -0.10
Saracens 6.62 5.03 1.60
Northampton Saints 5.60 -1.47 7.10
Leicester Tigers 4.86 5.55 -0.70
Exeter Chiefs 4.67 -4.58 9.30
Sale Sharks 4.46 6.70 -2.20
Bristol 3.93 3.66 0.30
Gloucester -4.39 4.13 -8.50
Harlequins -8.37 -3.02 -5.40
Newcastle Red Bulls -19.75 -18.45 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 45 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Jan 03 19 – 17 7.60 TRUE
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Gloucester Jan 03 25 – 19 -10.90 FALSE
3 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 04 33 – 26 13.90 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Jan 04 66 – 21 16.90 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 05 36 – 28 4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 25 Exeter Chiefs 7.70
2 Gloucester vs. Bath Jan 25 Bath -7.60
3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 25 Leicester Tigers -6.20
4 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Jan 25 Sale Sharks 5.90
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jan 25 Saracens 33.40