Top 14 Predictions for Round 16
Team Ratings for Round 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 14.45 | 11.56 | 2.90 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.19 | 4.78 | 0.40 |
| Stade Rochelais | 3.67 | 1.22 | 2.50 |
| Section Paloise | 3.15 | 2.21 | 0.90 |
| Clermont | 2.98 | 1.88 | 1.10 |
| Montpellier | 2.67 | -0.21 | 2.90 |
| Stade Francais | 2.32 | -2.17 | 4.50 |
| Toulon | 1.39 | 3.49 | -2.10 |
| Racing 92 | 0.99 | 1.88 | -0.90 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.33 | 0.59 | -0.30 |
| Lyon | -0.97 | -0.45 | -0.50 |
| Bayonne | -1.75 | 1.48 | -3.20 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.67 | -3.37 | -2.30 |
| Montauban | -15.86 | -10.00 | -5.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 105 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 25 | 10 – 13 | 5.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais | Jan 25 | 28 – 33 | 10.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Lyon | Jan 25 | 35 – 34 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Jan 25 | 59 – 22 | 16.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Montpellier | Jan 25 | 30 – 27 | 5.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Montauban | Jan 25 | 31 – 8 | 15.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais | Jan 26 | 32 – 27 | 5.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 16
Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Clermont | Feb 01 | Castres Olympique | 3.80 |
| 2 | Montauban vs. Bordeaux Begles | Feb 01 | Bordeaux Begles | -14.60 |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais | Feb 01 | Montpellier | 6.80 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 01 | Racing 92 | 13.20 |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon | Feb 01 | Stade Rochelais | 11.10 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne | Feb 01 | Stade Toulousain | 22.70 |
| 7 | Section Paloise vs. Toulon | Feb 02 | Section Paloise | 8.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »