AFL Predictions for Week 2
Team Ratings for Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 27.32 | 26.06 | 1.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 24.94 | 26.20 | -1.30 |
| Geelong Cats | 22.24 | 26.75 | -4.50 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 20.61 | 22.83 | -2.20 |
| Adelaide Crows | 15.32 | 15.32 | 0.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 14.74 | 10.24 | 4.50 |
| GWS Giants | 11.77 | 9.54 | 2.20 |
| Collingwood | 11.09 | 11.76 | -0.70 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 6.56 | 6.56 | 0.00 |
| Sydney Swans | 4.02 | 0.56 | 3.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | 1.64 | 1.64 | 0.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | -6.96 | -7.63 | 0.70 |
| Carlton Blues | -8.23 | -4.77 | -3.50 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -14.65 | -14.65 | -0.00 |
| North Melbourne | -21.71 | -21.71 | 0.00 |
| Essendon Bombers | -27.89 | -27.89 | 0.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -29.44 | -29.44 | -0.00 |
| West Coast Eagles | -39.36 | -39.36 | -0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 5 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 40%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues | Mar 05 | 132 – 69 | 16.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats | Mar 06 | 125 – 69 | -5.50 | FALSE |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Mar 07 | 122 – 95 | -2.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Brisbane Lions vs. Western Bulldogs | Mar 07 | 106 – 111 | 11.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood | Mar 08 | 66 – 78 | -19.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 2
Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 12 | Carlton Blues | 21.20 |
| 2 | Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Mar 13 | Hawthorn Hawks | -48.50 |
| 3 | Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants | Mar 14 | Western Bulldogs | 26.60 |
| 4 | Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers | Mar 14 | Geelong Cats | 26.70 |
| 5 | Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions | Mar 14 | Brisbane Lions | -9.90 |
| 6 | Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 14 | Collingwood | 6.80 |
| 7 | North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power | Mar 15 | North Melbourne | 3.90 |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 15 | Melbourne Demons | 8.60 |
| 9 | Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 15 | Gold Coast Suns | 65.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »