AFL Predictions for Week 3
Team Ratings for Week 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 31.33 | 26.06 | 5.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 21.82 | 22.83 | -1.00 |
| Brisbane Lions | 20.96 | 26.20 | -5.20 |
| Geelong Cats | 20.94 | 26.75 | -5.80 |
| Adelaide Crows | 16.92 | 15.32 | 1.60 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 14.19 | 10.24 | 4.00 |
| Collingwood | 9.49 | 11.76 | -2.30 |
| Sydney Swans | 8.00 | 0.56 | 7.40 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 7.86 | 6.56 | 1.30 |
| GWS Giants | 7.76 | 9.54 | -1.80 |
| Melbourne Demons | 2.03 | 1.64 | 0.40 |
| St Kilda Saints | -7.36 | -7.63 | 0.30 |
| Carlton Blues | -9.58 | -4.77 | -4.80 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -17.79 | -14.65 | -3.10 |
| North Melbourne | -18.57 | -21.71 | 3.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -28.09 | -29.44 | 1.30 |
| Essendon Bombers | -29.11 | -27.89 | -1.20 |
| West Coast Eagles | -38.81 | -39.36 | 0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 12 | 75 – 71 | 21.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Mar 13 | 83 – 145 | -48.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants | Mar 14 | 134 – 53 | 26.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers | Mar 14 | 110 – 100 | 26.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions | Mar 14 | 104 – 60 | -9.90 | FALSE |
| 6 | Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 14 | 79 – 93 | 6.80 | FALSE |
| 7 | North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power | Mar 15 | 113 – 67 | 3.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 15 | 120 – 107 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 9 | Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 15 | 131 – 72 | 65.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 3
Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans | Mar 19 | Hawthorn Hawks | 24.80 |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs | Mar 20 | Western Bulldogs | -3.40 |
| 3 | Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Mar 21 | Gold Coast Suns | -31.30 |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 21 | GWS Giants | 26.10 |
| 5 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 21 | Fremantle Dockers | 16.80 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers | Mar 22 | Port Adelaide Power | 22.30 |
| 7 | West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne | Mar 22 | North Melbourne | -9.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »