AFL Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 31.57 | 26.06 | 5.50 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 21.12 | 22.83 | -1.70 |
| Brisbane Lions | 20.96 | 26.20 | -5.20 |
| Geelong Cats | 20.94 | 26.75 | -5.80 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 16.95 | 10.24 | 6.70 |
| Adelaide Crows | 16.69 | 15.32 | 1.40 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 10.22 | 6.56 | 3.70 |
| Collingwood | 9.49 | 11.76 | -2.30 |
| Sydney Swans | 8.70 | 0.56 | 8.10 |
| GWS Giants | 5.47 | 9.54 | -4.10 |
| Melbourne Demons | -0.33 | 1.64 | -2.00 |
| St Kilda Saints | -5.07 | -7.63 | 2.60 |
| Carlton Blues | -9.58 | -4.77 | -4.80 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -14.75 | -14.65 | -0.10 |
| North Melbourne | -20.58 | -21.71 | 1.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -30.85 | -29.44 | -1.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -32.15 | -27.89 | -4.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -36.80 | -39.36 | 2.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans | Mar 19 | 99 – 82 | 24.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs | Mar 20 | 88 – 94 | -3.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Mar 21 | 60 – 128 | -31.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints | Mar 21 | 74 – 78 | 26.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 21 | 118 – 70 | 16.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers | Mar 22 | 133 – 70 | 22.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne | Mar 22 | 111 – 94 | -9.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 26 | Geelong Cats | 15.20 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. GWS Giants | Mar 27 | Collingwood | 15.00 |
| 3 | St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions | Mar 28 | Brisbane Lions | -15.00 |
| 4 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 28 | Fremantle Dockers | 52.10 |
| 5 | Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne | Mar 28 | North Melbourne | -11.60 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 29 | Port Adelaide Power | 33.10 |
| 7 | Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 29 | Melbourne Demons | -9.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »