AFL Predictions for Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 31.57 | 26.06 | 5.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | 22.36 | 26.20 | -3.80 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 21.12 | 22.83 | -1.70 |
| Geelong Cats | 20.28 | 26.75 | -6.50 |
| Adelaide Crows | 17.34 | 15.32 | 2.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 16.95 | 10.24 | 6.70 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 10.94 | 6.56 | 4.40 |
| Collingwood | 10.89 | 11.76 | -0.90 |
| Sydney Swans | 8.70 | 0.56 | 8.10 |
| GWS Giants | 4.07 | 9.54 | -5.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | 0.91 | 1.64 | -0.70 |
| St Kilda Saints | -6.47 | -7.63 | 1.20 |
| Carlton Blues | -10.81 | -4.77 | -6.00 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -17.39 | -14.65 | -2.70 |
| North Melbourne | -20.54 | -21.71 | 1.20 |
| Richmond Tigers | -31.57 | -29.44 | -2.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -32.19 | -27.89 | -4.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.16 | -39.36 | 5.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. Adelaide Crows | Mar 26 | 68 – 60 | 15.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. GWS Giants | Mar 27 | 87 – 54 | 15.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions | Mar 28 | 80 – 113 | -15.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Richmond Tigers | Mar 28 | 103 – 43 | 52.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne | Mar 28 | 69 – 81 | -11.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles | Mar 29 | 90 – 92 | 33.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons | Mar 29 | 77 – 100 | -9.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood | Apr 02 | Brisbane Lions | 22.50 |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 03 | Carlton Blues | -9.70 |
| 3 | Adelaide Crows vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 03 | Adelaide Crows | 17.40 |
| 4 | Richmond Tigers vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 04 | Port Adelaide Power | -3.20 |
| 5 | West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 04 | Sydney Swans | -31.90 |
| 6 | Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 05 | Gold Coast Suns | -5.00 |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 05 | Western Bulldogs | 63.80 |
| 8 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 06 | Hawthorn Hawks | 11.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »