AFL Predictions for Week 20
Team Ratings for Week 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle Dockers | 25.32 | 6.56 | 18.80 |
| Geelong Cats | 22.98 | 26.75 | -3.80 |
| Brisbane Lions | 20.31 | 26.20 | -5.90 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 16.95 | 22.83 | -5.90 |
| Adelaide Crows | 16.07 | 15.32 | 0.80 |
| Sydney Swans | 15.99 | 0.56 | 15.40 |
| Melbourne Demons | 8.27 | 1.64 | 6.60 |
| GWS Giants | 8.17 | 9.54 | -1.40 |
| Collingwood | 4.09 | 11.76 | -7.70 |
| Western Bulldogs | 3.54 | 26.06 | -22.50 |
| St Kilda Saints | 1.11 | -7.63 | 8.70 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -2.79 | 10.24 | -13.00 |
| Carlton Blues | -5.01 | -4.77 | -0.20 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -5.43 | -14.65 | 9.20 |
| North Melbourne | -15.06 | -21.71 | 6.70 |
| West Coast Eagles | -30.35 | -39.36 | 9.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -35.87 | -29.44 | -6.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -36.29 | -27.89 | -8.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 153 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 09 | 111 – 73 | 17.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. North Melbourne | Jul 10 | 89 – 85 | 21.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 11 | 87 – 73 | 18.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 11 | 86 – 73 | -6.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 11 | 39 – 103 | -14.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 11 | 128 – 49 | 21.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 12 | 86 – 70 | 50.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 12 | 111 – 65 | 43.70 | TRUE |
| 9 | Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 12 | 149 – 59 | 63.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 20
Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints | Jul 16 | Geelong Cats | 32.90 |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows | Jul 17 | Sydney Swans | 10.90 |
| 3 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jul 18 | Fremantle Dockers | -19.70 |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 18 | Melbourne Demons | -23.30 |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues | Jul 18 | Collingwood | 9.10 |
| 6 | West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 18 | Brisbane Lions | -39.70 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 19 | Hawthorn Hawks | -52.80 |
| 8 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 19 | Gold Coast Suns | 4.70 |
| 9 | Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants | Jul 19 | GWS Giants | -33.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »