AFL Predictions for Week 21
Team Ratings for Week 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle Dockers | 26.06 | 6.56 | 19.50 |
| Geelong Cats | 22.46 | 26.75 | -4.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 19.08 | 26.20 | -7.10 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 18.29 | 22.83 | -4.50 |
| Adelaide Crows | 18.12 | 15.32 | 2.80 |
| Sydney Swans | 13.93 | 0.56 | 13.40 |
| Melbourne Demons | 7.61 | 1.64 | 6.00 |
| GWS Giants | 5.43 | 9.54 | -4.10 |
| Collingwood | 5.16 | 11.76 | -6.60 |
| Western Bulldogs | 4.77 | 26.06 | -21.30 |
| St Kilda Saints | 1.63 | -7.63 | 9.30 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -4.02 | 10.24 | -14.30 |
| Carlton Blues | -6.08 | -4.77 | -1.30 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -6.17 | -14.65 | 8.50 |
| North Melbourne | -14.40 | -21.71 | 7.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -29.12 | -39.36 | 10.20 |
| Essendon Bombers | -33.55 | -27.89 | -5.70 |
| Richmond Tigers | -37.21 | -29.44 | -7.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 162 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints | Jul 16 | 102 – 75 | 32.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows | Jul 17 | 71 – 87 | 10.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jul 18 | 75 – 103 | -19.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 18 | 76 – 92 | -23.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues | Jul 18 | 90 – 69 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 18 | 69 – 93 | -39.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 19 | 52 – 122 | -52.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 19 | 68 – 77 | 4.70 | FALSE |
| 9 | Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants | Jul 19 | 67 – 64 | -33.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 21
Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood | Jul 23 | Adelaide Crows | 24.00 |
| 2 | Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 24 | Geelong Cats | -3.80 |
| 3 | Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 24 | Fremantle Dockers | 55.20 |
| 4 | Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 25 | Carlton Blues | 8.90 |
| 5 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 25 | Hawthorn Hawks | 51.80 |
| 6 | GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 25 | GWS Giants | 2.50 |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 25 | Western Bulldogs | 42.00 |
| 8 | Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 26 | Brisbane Lions | 36.20 |
| 9 | North Melbourne vs. St Kilda Saints | Jul 26 | St Kilda Saints | -16.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »