NFL Predictions for Week 1
Team Ratings for Week 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 12.03 | 12.03 | -0.00 |
| Patriots | 8.11 | 8.11 | -0.00 |
| Rams | 6.16 | 6.16 | 0.00 |
| Texans | 5.51 | 5.51 | -0.00 |
| Lions | 5.20 | 5.20 | 0.00 |
| Bills | 4.81 | 4.81 | 0.00 |
| Jaguars | 4.17 | 4.17 | 0.00 |
| Broncos | 4.07 | 4.07 | -0.00 |
| Vikings | 2.79 | 2.79 | 0.00 |
| Ravens | 2.53 | 2.53 | 0.00 |
| Packers | 1.72 | 1.72 | 0.00 |
| Bears | 1.18 | 1.18 | 0.00 |
| Chargers | 1.16 | 1.16 | 0.00 |
| Eagles | 0.73 | 0.73 | -0.00 |
| 49ers | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.00 |
| Bengals | 0.39 | 0.39 | -0.00 |
| Steelers | -0.43 | -0.43 | -0.00 |
| Colts | -0.74 | -0.74 | -0.00 |
| Chiefs | -1.34 | -1.34 | 0.00 |
| Falcons | -1.39 | -1.39 | -0.00 |
| Giants | -2.38 | -2.38 | 0.00 |
| Browns | -2.50 | -2.50 | -0.00 |
| Saints | -3.38 | -3.38 | -0.00 |
| Cowboys | -3.42 | -3.42 | 0.00 |
| Buccaneers | -3.95 | -3.95 | 0.00 |
| Dolphins | -3.99 | -3.99 | -0.00 |
| Commanders | -4.65 | -4.65 | 0.00 |
| Panthers | -4.66 | -4.66 | -0.00 |
| Raiders | -5.72 | -5.72 | -0.00 |
| Cardinals | -7.49 | -7.49 | 0.00 |
| Titans | -8.81 | -8.81 | 0.00 |
| Jets | -9.84 | -9.84 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Week 1
Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seahawks vs. Patriots | Sept 10 | Seahawks | 3.90 |
| 2 | Rams vs. 49ers | Sept 11 | Rams | 5.50 |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Bears | Sept 14 | Bears | -5.80 |
| 4 | Bengals vs. Buccaneers | Sept 14 | Bengals | 4.30 |
| 5 | Lions vs. Saints | Sept 14 | Lions | 8.60 |
| 6 | Texans vs. Bills | Sept 14 | Texans | 0.70 |
| 7 | Colts vs. Ravens | Sept 14 | Ravens | -3.30 |
| 8 | Jaguars vs. Browns | Sept 14 | Jaguars | 6.70 |
| 9 | Steelers vs. Falcons | Sept 14 | Steelers | 1.00 |
| 10 | Titans vs. Jets | Sept 14 | Titans | 1.00 |
| 11 | Raiders vs. Dolphins | Sept 14 | Dolphins | -1.70 |
| 12 | Chargers vs. Cardinals | Sept 14 | Chargers | 8.70 |
| 13 | Vikings vs. Packers | Sept 14 | Vikings | 1.10 |
| 14 | Eagles vs. Commanders | Sept 14 | Eagles | 5.40 |
| 15 | Giants vs. Cowboys | Sept 14 | Giants | 1.00 |
| 16 | Chiefs vs. Broncos | Sept 15 | Broncos | -5.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »