Posts written by David Scott (1680)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 17, 2026

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.87 12.36 -0.50
Blues 9.44 8.91 0.50
Hurricanes 8.95 8.29 0.70
Crusaders 7.05 8.41 -1.40
Brumbies 6.11 5.59 0.50
Reds 1.64 1.74 -0.10
Highlanders -2.50 -3.06 0.60
Waratahs -5.19 -5.84 0.70
Western Force -5.90 -6.29 0.40
Fijian Drua -7.26 -7.64 0.40
Moana Pasifika -9.62 -7.88 -1.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Western Force Mar 13 31 – 23 19.30 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Mar 14 42 – 27 -10.20 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Mar 14 29 – 18 15.00 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 14 26 – 17 12.20 TRUE
5 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 15 43 – 7 23.00 TRUE

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 20 Hurricanes -6.50
2 Brumbies vs. Chiefs Mar 20 Chiefs -2.30
3 Fijian Drua vs. Reds Mar 21 Reds -3.90
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders Mar 21 Crusaders -11.70
5 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 21 Blues -11.10
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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.16 13.41 -4.20
Glasgow 7.63 6.18 1.40
Bulls 7.61 8.86 -1.30
Stormers 6.68 4.17 2.50
Ulster 1.97 -3.24 5.20
Munster 1.90 3.65 -1.80
Lions 0.76 -1.19 2.00
Edinburgh -0.14 2.67 -2.80
Connacht -0.60 -1.39 0.80
Sharks -1.06 1.29 -2.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.00 -2.74 0.70
Scarlets -2.41 -0.54 -1.90
Ospreys -2.46 -2.15 -0.30
Benetton -4.94 -2.32 -2.60
Dragons -10.01 -15.66 5.60
Zebre -12.09 -11.02 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Mar 14 19 – 40 7.60 FALSE
2 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 14 31 – 14 7.60 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 15 19 – 32 4.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 21 Bulls 16.60
2 Scarlets vs. Zebre Mar 21 Scarlets 16.70
3 Ulster vs. Connacht Mar 21 Ulster 4.60
4 Lions vs. Edinburgh Mar 22 Lions 7.90
5 Benetton vs. Ospreys Mar 22 Benetton 4.50
6 Sharks vs. Munster Mar 22 Sharks 4.00
7 Glasgow vs. Leinster Mar 22 Glasgow 5.50
8 Stormers vs. Dragons Mar 23 Stormers 23.70

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.70 8.77 2.90
Storm 10.40 6.96 3.40
Sharks 7.65 7.25 0.40
Roosters 6.71 9.50 -2.80
Broncos 3.78 7.06 -3.30
Warriors 2.89 -1.18 4.10
Bulldogs 1.26 2.13 -0.90
Raiders -0.03 1.62 -1.60
Dolphins -0.38 1.85 -2.20
Eels -1.33 -0.37 -1.00
Sea Eagles -2.52 0.21 -2.70
Rabbitohs -2.82 -5.05 2.20
Wests Tigers -5.44 -7.26 1.80
Cowboys -5.99 -2.69 -3.30
Dragons -6.94 -6.72 -0.20
Titans -8.70 -8.02 -0.70
Knights -10.24 -14.06 3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Eels Mar 12 32 – 40 11.90 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 13 40 – 6 2.80 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 13 26 – 18 15.10 TRUE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Mar 14 44 – 16 0.90 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 14 20 – 46 -11.20 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 14 26 – 6 6.00 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Mar 15 16 – 36 16.40 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Titans Mar 15 18 – 14 13.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Bulldogs Mar 19 Raiders 2.70
2 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 20 Panthers -1.00
3 Storm vs. Broncos Mar 20 Storm 10.60
4 Knights vs. Warriors Mar 21 Warriors -9.10
5 Sharks vs. Dolphins Mar 21 Sharks 12.00
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 21 Rabbitohs 6.60
7 Eels vs. Dragons Mar 22 Eels 9.60
8 Cowboys vs. Titans Mar 22 Cowboys 6.70

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 31.33 26.06 5.30
Hawthorn Hawks 21.82 22.83 -1.00
Brisbane Lions 20.96 26.20 -5.20
Geelong Cats 20.94 26.75 -5.80
Adelaide Crows 16.92 15.32 1.60
Gold Coast Suns 14.19 10.24 4.00
Collingwood 9.49 11.76 -2.30
Sydney Swans 8.00 0.56 7.40
Fremantle Dockers 7.86 6.56 1.30
GWS Giants 7.76 9.54 -1.80
Melbourne Demons 2.03 1.64 0.40
St Kilda Saints -7.36 -7.63 0.30
Carlton Blues -9.58 -4.77 -4.80
Port Adelaide Power -17.79 -14.65 -3.10
North Melbourne -18.57 -21.71 3.10
Richmond Tigers -28.09 -29.44 1.30
Essendon Bombers -29.11 -27.89 -1.20
West Coast Eagles -38.81 -39.36 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 12 75 – 71 21.20 TRUE
2 Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 13 83 – 145 -48.50 TRUE
3 Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants Mar 14 134 – 53 26.60 TRUE
4 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 14 110 – 100 26.70 TRUE
5 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 14 104 – 60 -9.90 FALSE
6 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 14 79 – 93 6.80 FALSE
7 North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 113 – 67 3.90 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 15 120 – 107 8.60 TRUE
9 Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 15 131 – 72 65.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Sydney Swans Mar 19 Hawthorn Hawks 24.80
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 20 Western Bulldogs -3.40
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 21 Gold Coast Suns -31.30
4 GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 21 GWS Giants 26.10
5 Fremantle Dockers vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 21 Fremantle Dockers 16.80
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 22 Port Adelaide Power 22.30
7 West Coast Eagles vs. North Melbourne Mar 22 North Melbourne -9.20

 

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March 10, 2026

AFL Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 27.32 26.06 1.30
Brisbane Lions 24.94 26.20 -1.30
Geelong Cats 22.24 26.75 -4.50
Hawthorn Hawks 20.61 22.83 -2.20
Adelaide Crows 15.32 15.32 0.00
Gold Coast Suns 14.74 10.24 4.50
GWS Giants 11.77 9.54 2.20
Collingwood 11.09 11.76 -0.70
Fremantle Dockers 6.56 6.56 0.00
Sydney Swans 4.02 0.56 3.50
Melbourne Demons 1.64 1.64 0.00
St Kilda Saints -6.96 -7.63 0.70
Carlton Blues -8.23 -4.77 -3.50
Port Adelaide Power -14.65 -14.65 -0.00
North Melbourne -21.71 -21.71 0.00
Essendon Bombers -27.89 -27.89 0.00
Richmond Tigers -29.44 -29.44 -0.00
West Coast Eagles -39.36 -39.36 -0.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 40%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues Mar 05 132 – 69 16.30 TRUE
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats Mar 06 125 – 69 -5.50 FALSE
3 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 122 – 95 -2.30 FALSE
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 07 106 – 111 11.10 FALSE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Mar 08 66 – 78 -19.40 TRUE

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 12 Carlton Blues 21.20
2 Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 13 Hawthorn Hawks -48.50
3 Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants Mar 14 Western Bulldogs 26.60
4 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 14 Geelong Cats 26.70
5 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 14 Brisbane Lions -9.90
6 Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 14 Collingwood 6.80
7 North Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 North Melbourne 3.90
8 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 15 Melbourne Demons 8.60
9 Gold Coast Suns vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 15 Gold Coast Suns 65.10
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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.87 12.36 -0.50
Hurricanes 9.44 8.29 1.10
Blues 8.89 8.91 -0.00
Crusaders 7.26 8.41 -1.20
Brumbies 7.04 5.59 1.50
Reds 1.82 1.74 0.10
Highlanders -2.72 -3.06 0.30
Waratahs -5.37 -5.84 0.50
Western Force -6.39 -6.29 -0.10
Fijian Drua -8.18 -7.64 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -9.08 -7.88 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 06 57 – 24 25.20 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 19 – 59 -9.10 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 07 39 – 31 7.00 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 07 29 – 13 5.70 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 07 31 – 34 11.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Western Force Mar 13 Hurricanes 19.30
2 Fijian Drua vs. Brumbies Mar 14 Brumbies -10.20
3 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Mar 14 Crusaders 15.00
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 14 Reds 12.20
5 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 15 Blues 23.00

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.66 8.77 1.90
Storm 9.31 6.96 2.40
Sharks 8.69 7.25 1.40
Roosters 7.49 9.50 -2.00
Broncos 5.17 7.06 -1.90
Raiders 2.01 1.62 0.40
Bulldogs 1.26 2.13 -0.90
Warriors 0.84 -1.18 2.00
Dolphins 0.39 1.85 -1.50
Sea Eagles -0.18 0.21 -0.40
Eels -2.72 -0.37 -2.30
Rabbitohs -3.60 -5.05 1.50
Cowboys -4.17 -2.69 -1.50
Dragons -5.85 -6.72 0.90
Wests Tigers -7.26 -7.26 -0.00
Titans -9.47 -8.02 -1.50
Knights -12.57 -14.06 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 37.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Cowboys Mar 01 28 – 18 -11.40 FALSE
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Mar 01 15 – 14 8.80 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Eels Mar 05 52 – 4 11.30 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 06 42 – 18 -6.70 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Panthers Mar 06 0 – 26 2.30 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 07 50 – 10 19.30 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 07 28 – 29 2.60 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Mar 08 30 – 40 10.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Eels Mar 12 Broncos 11.90
2 Warriors vs. Raiders Mar 13 Warriors 2.80
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Mar 13 Roosters 15.10
4 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Mar 14 Wests Tigers 0.90
5 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 14 Storm -11.20
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 14 Panthers 6.00
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Mar 15 Sea Eagles 16.40
8 Dolphins vs. Titans Mar 15 Dolphins 13.90

 

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March 5, 2026

AFL Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 26.75 26.75 0.00
Brisbane Lions 26.20 26.20 0.00
Western Bulldogs 26.06 26.06 0.00
Hawthorn Hawks 22.83 22.83 -0.00
Adelaide Crows 15.32 15.32 0.00
Collingwood 11.76 11.76 0.00
Gold Coast Suns 10.24 10.24 0.00
GWS Giants 9.54 9.54 -0.00
Fremantle Dockers 6.56 6.56 0.00
Melbourne Demons 1.64 1.64 0.00
Sydney Swans 0.56 0.56 0.00
Carlton Blues -4.77 -4.77 -0.00
St Kilda Saints -7.63 -7.63 -0.00
Port Adelaide Power -14.65 -14.65 -0.00
North Melbourne -21.71 -21.71 0.00
Essendon Bombers -27.89 -27.89 0.00
Richmond Tigers -29.44 -29.44 -0.00
West Coast Eagles -39.36 -39.36 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues Mar 05 Sydney Swans 16.30
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Geelong Cats Mar 06 Geelong Cats -5.50
3 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 Hawthorn Hawks -2.30
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 07 Brisbane Lions 11.10
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Mar 08 Collingwood -19.40

 

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March 3, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

Not sure how I missed posting this one, but here it is for completeness.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.20 11.56 2.60
Bordeaux Begles 5.70 4.78 0.90
Montpellier 4.13 -0.21 4.30
Clermont 3.69 1.88 1.80
Section Paloise 2.97 2.21 0.80
Stade Rochelais 2.19 1.22 1.00
Stade Francais 1.55 -2.17 3.70
Lyon 1.09 -0.45 1.50
Racing 92 0.92 1.88 -1.00
Toulon 0.18 3.49 -3.30
Castres Olympique -0.09 0.59 -0.70
Bayonne -2.01 1.48 -3.50
USA Perpignan -4.63 -3.37 -1.30
Montauban -17.01 -10.00 -7.00

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Feb 15 57 – 32 11.30 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Feb 15 36 – 41 4.30 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Montauban Feb 15 73 – 12 22.40 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier Feb 15 33 – 43 5.60 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Feb 15 40 – 24 -2.30 FALSE
6 Toulon vs. Clermont Feb 15 14 – 34 4.50 FALSE
7 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 16 9 – 13 -6.40 TRUE

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 01 Castres Olympique 4.20
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Mar 01 Clermont 12.20
3 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 01 Lyon 7.40
4 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Mar 01 Montpellier 9.70
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Mar 01 Stade Francais 12.70
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Montauban Mar 01 Stade Toulousain 37.70
7 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 Section Paloise 3.80
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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.16 13.41 -4.20
Bulls 8.56 8.86 -0.30
Glasgow 7.63 6.18 1.40
Stormers 5.72 4.17 1.60
Munster 1.90 3.65 -1.80
Edinburgh 1.22 2.67 -1.50
Lions 0.76 -1.19 2.00
Ulster 0.61 -3.24 3.80
Sharks -1.06 1.29 -2.30
Connacht -1.19 -1.39 0.20
Scarlets -1.82 -0.54 -1.30
Cardiff Rugby -2.00 -2.74 0.70
Ospreys -2.46 -2.15 -0.30
Benetton -4.94 -2.32 -2.60
Dragons -10.01 -15.66 5.60
Zebre -12.09 -11.02 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Feb 28 8 – 7 -5.60 FALSE
2 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Feb 28 24 – 19 11.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Stormers Mar 01 24 – 10 -5.00 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 01 41 – 12 9.60 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Mar 01 15 – 10 -2.90 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Benetton Mar 01 15 – 15 2.50 FALSE
7 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 01 21 – 7 22.00 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Ulster Mar 01 21 – 10 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Mar 14 Edinburgh 7.60
2 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 14 Connacht 7.60
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 15 Bulls 4.80

 

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