Posts written by David Scott (1530)

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 29, 2025

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 12.71 5.55 7.20
Leicester Tigers 8.29 3.27 5.00
Sale Sharks 6.88 4.73 2.20
Gloucester 6.71 -9.04 15.70
Saracens 2.37 9.68 -7.30
Northampton Saints 1.94 7.50 -5.60
Bristol -0.23 9.58 -9.80
Harlequins -2.17 -2.73 0.60
Exeter Chiefs -8.54 1.23 -9.80
Newcastle Falcons -17.20 -19.02 1.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 26 25 – 7 9.30 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 27 55 – 19 36.50 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Apr 27 40 – 7 12.90 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Apr 27 48 – 31 6.60 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 79 – 17 11.70 TRUE

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks May 10 Leicester Tigers 7.90
2 Bristol vs. Bath May 11 Bath -6.40
3 Harlequins vs. Gloucester May 11 Gloucester -2.40
4 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons May 11 Saracens 26.10
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints May 12 Northampton Saints -4.00
Add a comment

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17

By

Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.24 12.09 0.10
Bulls 10.33 8.83 1.50
Glasgow 8.00 9.39 -1.40
Stormers 6.51 6.75 -0.20
Munster 4.01 9.28 -5.30
Sharks 2.50 -2.94 5.40
Lions 0.85 6.73 -5.90
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Edinburgh 0.76 0.09 0.70
Connacht -1.65 -0.76 -0.90
Scarlets -1.76 -10.65 8.90
Cardiff Rugby -1.92 -2.55 0.60
Ospreys -1.93 -2.51 0.60
Ulster -2.01 2.52 -4.50
Benetton -4.95 1.02 -6.00
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -8.57 -16.17 7.60
Dragons -16.70 -15.41 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Munster Apr 26 26 – 21 -2.00 FALSE
2 Glasgow vs. Bulls Apr 26 19 – 26 5.00 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Connacht Apr 27 26 – 7 6.10 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Dragons Apr 27 57 – 24 14.70 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Leinster Apr 27 35 – 22 -11.90 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Benetton Apr 27 56 – 5 12.00 TRUE
7 Ulster vs. Sharks Apr 27 19 – 22 2.10 FALSE
8 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Apr 27 25 – 25 -4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Ospreys May 10 Sharks 9.90
2 Munster vs. Ulster May 10 Munster 8.50
3 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby May 11 Bulls 17.80
4 Benetton vs. Glasgow May 11 Glasgow -7.50
5 Leinster vs. Zebre May 11 Leinster 26.30
6 Stormers vs. Dragons May 11 Stormers 28.70
7 Connacht vs. Edinburgh May 11 Connacht 3.10
8 Lions vs. Scarlets May 12 Lions 8.10

 

Add a comment

Top 14 Predictions for Round 23

By

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.57 8.76 4.80
Toulon 5.86 5.32 0.50
Bordeaux Begles 5.37 3.96 1.40
Stade Rochelais 1.22 4.85 -3.60
Clermont 1.19 0.41 0.80
Montpellier 0.93 -0.96 1.90
Racing 92 0.64 2.75 -2.10
Bayonne 0.48 -1.69 2.20
Lyon 0.47 -0.18 0.60
Castres Olympique -0.07 -0.09 0.00
Section Paloise -0.65 1.38 -2.00
Stade Francais -2.05 1.86 -3.90
USA Perpignan -3.55 -0.66 -2.90
Vannes -7.69 -10.00 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 154 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Section Paloise Apr 27 27 – 22 7.50 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 27 10 – 21 13.10 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Lyon Apr 27 39 – 31 5.30 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 27 19 – 13 10.50 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Apr 27 52 – 6 18.20 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. Toulon Apr 27 29 – 19 -7.50 FALSE
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Apr 28 49 – 24 8.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont May 11 Castres Olympique 5.60
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise May 11 Lyon 7.40
3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne May 11 Racing 92 6.80
4 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain May 11 Stade Toulousain -1.30
5 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais May 11 USA Perpignan 5.30
6 Vannes vs. Stade Rochelais May 11 Stade Rochelais -1.60
7 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles May 12 Montpellier 1.20

 

Add a comment

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 12

By

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.32 11.43 0.90
Crusaders 10.88 8.99 1.90
Blues 10.65 14.92 -4.30
Hurricanes 9.06 10.97 -1.90
Brumbies 5.55 6.19 -0.60
Reds 2.04 1.35 0.70
Highlanders -3.28 -2.50 -0.80
Western Force -5.13 -6.41 1.30
Waratahs -5.83 -5.17 -0.70
Moana Pasifika -7.42 -11.25 3.80
Fijian Drua -8.30 -7.98 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Western Force Apr 25 56 – 22 20.30 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Blues Apr 25 35 – 21 -6.20 FALSE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Apr 26 34 – 15 3.60 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Apr 26 10 – 43 -8.90 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 26 29 – 35 1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Western Force May 02 Blues 19.80
2 Fijian Drua vs. Reds May 03 Reds -6.80
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 03 Hurricanes 0.20
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs May 03 Brumbies 14.90
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika May 04 Highlanders 7.60

 

Add a comment

NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.39 9.29 0.10
Panthers 5.79 8.50 -2.70
Sharks 4.90 5.10 -0.20
Roosters 3.99 7.44 -3.50
Sea Eagles 3.48 2.97 0.50
Cowboys 3.46 4.11 -0.70
Bulldogs 2.76 0.07 2.70
Broncos 1.24 -1.82 3.10
Raiders -0.40 -3.61 3.20
Dolphins -0.83 -1.96 1.10
Warriors -1.34 -1.68 0.30
Rabbitohs -3.71 -4.35 0.60
Dragons -3.75 -4.55 0.80
Knights -3.82 -0.05 -3.80
Eels -6.47 -3.02 -3.50
Titans -6.99 -5.50 -1.50
Wests Tigers -7.71 -10.97 3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Apr 24 42 – 18 -0.60 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 46 – 18 9.10 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Knights Apr 25 26 – 12 5.10 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Apr 25 24 – 16 17.00 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Titans Apr 26 50 – 18 11.70 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 26 10 – 26 7.30 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Dolphins Apr 27 40 – 28 2.50 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sharks Apr 27 20 – 18 -10.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Eels May 02 Sharks 11.40
2 Roosters vs. Dolphins May 02 Roosters 1.80
3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights May 03 Rabbitohs 0.10
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys May 03 Cowboys -4.80
5 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 03 Dragons -4.00
6 Titans vs. Bulldogs May 04 Bulldogs -9.70
7 Panthers vs. Broncos May 04 Panthers 1.50
8 Storm vs. Raiders May 04 Storm 9.80

 

Add a comment

AFL Predictions for Week 9

By

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Collingwood 21.15 5.39 15.80
Brisbane Lions 17.88 22.65 -4.80
Western Bulldogs 17.27 18.20 -0.90
Hawthorn Hawks 15.90 21.95 -6.10
Geelong Cats 14.66 15.04 -0.40
Adelaide Crows 10.22 2.69 7.50
GWS Giants 8.73 9.08 -0.40
Sydney Swans 6.69 12.60 -5.90
Fremantle Dockers 5.82 5.99 -0.20
Carlton Blues 5.73 5.01 0.70
Port Adelaide Power 2.29 7.63 -5.30
Gold Coast Suns 0.51 -6.41 6.90
St Kilda Saints -3.42 0.89 -4.30
Melbourne Demons -7.88 -0.21 -7.70
Essendon Bombers -11.02 -10.15 -0.90
Richmond Tigers -30.84 -31.00 0.20
North Melbourne -32.14 -37.08 4.90
West Coast Eagles -33.97 -34.67 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers Apr 24 83 – 63 23.90 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 25 107 – 66 29.40 TRUE
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 25 85 – 67 4.40 TRUE
4 St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 26 73 – 118 -4.70 TRUE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Apr 26 97 – 88 51.20 TRUE
6 GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 26 81 – 113 8.00 FALSE
7 Gold Coast Suns vs. Sydney Swans Apr 27 117 – 79 -0.50 FALSE
8 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats Apr 27 94 – 76 -0.80 FALSE
9 Hawthorn Hawks vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 27 124 – 74 63.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne May 01 Essendon Bombers 21.10
2 St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers May 02 St Kilda Saints 1.80
3 Western Bulldogs vs. Port Adelaide Power May 03 Western Bulldogs 26.00
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton Blues May 03 Adelaide Crows 15.50
5 Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats May 03 Collingwood 17.50
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons May 03 Melbourne Demons -15.10
7 Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants May 04 Sydney Swans 2.00
8 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers May 04 Hawthorn Hawks 46.70
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns May 04 Brisbane Lions 21.40

 

Add a comment
April 22, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 16

By

Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.93 12.09 1.80
Bulls 9.42 8.83 0.60
Glasgow 8.91 9.39 -0.50
Munster 4.78 9.28 -4.50
Stormers 4.04 6.75 -2.70
Sharks 1.94 -2.94 4.90
Edinburgh 1.30 0.09 1.20
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Lions -0.12 6.73 -6.80
Connacht -0.68 -0.76 0.10
Ulster -1.45 2.52 -4.00
Benetton -2.48 1.02 -3.50
Cardiff Rugby -2.69 -2.55 -0.10
Ospreys -3.24 -2.51 -0.70
Scarlets -3.45 -10.65 7.20
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -9.11 -16.17 7.10
Dragons -15.39 -15.41 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Sharks Apr 19 17 – 18 6.50 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Benetton Apr 19 31 – 42 10.90 FALSE
3 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 20 19 – 36 5.00 FALSE
4 Stormers vs. Connacht Apr 20 34 – 29 11.70 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Bulls Apr 20 13 – 16 1.90 FALSE
6 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 20 23 – 31 -9.80 TRUE
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Apr 20 41 – 17 16.10 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Glasgow Apr 20 6 – 14 -13.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Munster Apr 26 Munster -2.00
2 Glasgow vs. Bulls Apr 26 Glasgow 5.00
3 Lions vs. Connacht Apr 27 Lions 6.10
4 Ospreys vs. Dragons Apr 27 Ospreys 14.70
5 Scarlets vs. Leinster Apr 27 Leinster -11.90
6 Stormers vs. Benetton Apr 27 Stormers 12.00
7 Ulster vs. Sharks Apr 27 Ulster 2.10
8 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Apr 27 Edinburgh -4.90

 

Add a comment

Top 14 Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.64 8.76 3.90
Toulon 6.50 5.32 1.20
Bordeaux Begles 6.10 3.96 2.10
Montpellier 1.21 -0.96 2.20
Clermont 1.12 0.41 0.70
Castres Olympique 0.93 -0.09 1.00
Bayonne 0.65 -1.69 2.30
Lyon 0.59 -0.18 0.80
Stade Rochelais 0.39 4.85 -4.50
Racing 92 0.03 2.75 -2.70
Section Paloise -0.84 1.38 -2.20
Stade Francais -1.43 1.86 -3.30
USA Perpignan -3.82 -0.66 -3.20
Vannes -8.36 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 147 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Vannes Apr 20 32 – 13 14.30 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. Montpellier Apr 20 32 – 23 7.00 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 20 22 – 26 0.50 FALSE
4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 20 21 – 27 -7.10 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Apr 20 29 – 28 6.10 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Clermont Apr 20 31 – 24 13.20 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Apr 20 28 – 24 2.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Section Paloise Apr 27 Bayonne 7.50
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais Apr 27 Bordeaux Begles 13.10
3 Clermont vs. Lyon Apr 27 Clermont 5.30
4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Apr 27 Montpellier 10.50
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Apr 27 Stade Toulousain 18.20
6 Vannes vs. Toulon Apr 27 Toulon -7.50
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Apr 28 Racing 92 8.40

 

Add a comment

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 12.76 5.55 7.20
Leicester Tigers 6.28 3.27 3.00
Sale Sharks 6.01 4.73 1.30
Saracens 3.25 9.68 -6.40
Gloucester 1.68 -9.04 10.70
Northampton Saints 0.90 7.50 -6.60
Bristol 0.81 9.58 -8.80
Harlequins -0.16 -2.73 2.60
Exeter Chiefs -3.51 1.23 -4.70
Newcastle Falcons -17.25 -19.02 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 19 34 – 35 -14.30 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 20 24 – 26 -11.70 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Apr 20 29 – 43 3.90 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 20 36 – 14 4.60 TRUE
5 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 19 – 36 5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Apr 26 Sale Sharks 9.30
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Apr 27 Bath 36.50
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Apr 27 Leicester Tigers 12.90
4 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Apr 27 Northampton Saints 6.60
5 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Apr 28 Gloucester 11.70

 

Add a comment

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 11

By

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.76 11.43 0.30
Blues 11.42 14.92 -3.50
Crusaders 9.99 8.99 1.00
Hurricanes 8.72 10.97 -2.30
Brumbies 5.89 6.19 -0.30
Reds 1.27 1.35 -0.10
Highlanders -2.39 -2.50 0.10
Western Force -4.56 -6.41 1.90
Waratahs -5.83 -5.17 -0.70
Fijian Drua -7.68 -7.98 0.30
Moana Pasifika -8.04 -11.25 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Brumbies Apr 18 0 – 24 -8.70 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 18 25 – 22 1.90 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Apr 19 28 – 14 0.50 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Apr 19 46 – 10 16.10 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Apr 19 17 – 17 -10.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Western Force Apr 25 Chiefs 20.30
2 Reds vs. Blues Apr 25 Blues -6.20
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Apr 26 Moana Pasifika 3.60
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Apr 26 Crusaders -8.90
5 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Apr 26 Brumbies 1.20

 

Add a comment
Earlier posts »