Posts written by David Scott (427)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 29, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.70 14.78 1.90
Taranaki 4.78 7.04 -2.30
Auckland 4.47 6.11 -1.60
Counties Manukau 4.36 5.70 -1.30
Tasman 4.16 9.54 -5.40
Waikato 1.50 -0.26 1.80
Wellington 1.34 -1.62 3.00
Otago 1.23 -0.34 1.60
North Harbour -0.07 -1.27 1.20
Bay of Plenty -2.72 -3.98 1.30
Manawatu -2.87 -3.59 0.70
Hawke’s Bay -8.55 -5.85 -2.70
Northland -9.75 -12.37 2.60
Southland -17.20 -16.50 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 24 20 – 45 -10.50 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 25 46 – 17 5.60 TRUE
3 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 25 33 – 21 -1.30 FALSE
4 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 26 42 – 26 -2.80 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 10 – 8 21.80 TRUE
6 Manawatu vs. Tasman Aug 27 35 – 20 -7.00 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. Otago Aug 27 30 – 24 22.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 Auckland 7.00
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Aug 31 Wellington -0.10
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 01 Canterbury -21.20
4 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 02 Otago 8.10
5 Southland vs. Northland Sep 02 Northland -3.50
6 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 Taranaki 4.40
7 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 03 Waikato 1.30
8 North Harbour vs. Auckland Sep 03 Auckland -0.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.08 4.33 0.70
Sharks 4.09 2.15 1.90
Lions 3.60 7.41 -3.80
Western Province 2.99 3.30 -0.30
Blue Bulls 0.58 2.32 -1.70
Pumas -8.67 -10.63 2.00
Griquas -10.42 -11.62 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Aug 25 51 – 15 -7.00 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 26 30 – 24 6.00 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Aug 26 20 – 21 4.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Sep 01 Blue Bulls 15.50
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 02 Sharks 3.50
3 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 02 Lions 16.80

 

August 22, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 25

Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.52 8.49 3.00
Broncos 8.46 4.36 4.10
Raiders 5.02 9.94 -4.90
Panthers 4.19 6.08 -1.90
Sharks 2.69 5.84 -3.20
Cowboys 2.66 6.90 -4.20
Roosters 1.26 -1.17 2.40
Dragons -0.63 -7.74 7.10
Eels -0.79 -0.81 0.00
Rabbitohs -0.99 -1.82 0.80
Sea Eagles -1.69 -2.98 1.30
Wests Tigers -3.75 -3.89 0.10
Bulldogs -5.66 -1.34 -4.30
Warriors -6.79 -6.02 -0.80
Knights -8.60 -16.94 8.30
Titans -8.95 -0.98 -8.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 176 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Titans Aug 17 30 – 18 11.60 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 18 36 – 18 8.20 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 18 24 – 12 12.70 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Storm Aug 19 12 – 44 -13.80 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 22 – 18 9.40 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Sharks Aug 19 16 – 26 6.00 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 20 22 – 26 5.90 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 20 30 – 16 -3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 24 Broncos 12.70
2 Raiders vs. Knights Aug 25 Raiders 17.10
3 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 25 Cowboys -2.90
4 Titans vs. Bulldogs Aug 26 Titans 0.20
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs Aug 26 Storm 16.00
6 Sharks vs. Roosters Aug 26 Sharks 4.90
7 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Aug 27 Sea Eagles -1.10
8 Panthers vs. Dragons Aug 27 Panthers 8.30

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 18.18 14.78 3.40
Taranaki 6.47 7.04 -0.60
Auckland 6.25 6.11 0.10
Tasman 6.14 9.54 -3.40
Counties Manukau 5.56 5.70 -0.10
Waikato 0.31 -0.26 0.60
Otago -0.25 -0.34 0.10
Wellington -0.35 -1.62 1.30
North Harbour -1.37 -1.27 -0.10
Bay of Plenty -4.82 -3.98 -0.80
Manawatu -4.85 -3.59 -1.30
Hawke’s Bay -6.45 -5.85 -0.60
Northland -11.53 -12.37 0.80
Southland -15.90 -16.50 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Otago Aug 17 19 – 17 3.10 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 18 0 – 39 -1.20 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Aug 19 24 – 16 14.70 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Waikato Aug 19 34 – 29 11.30 TRUE
5 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Aug 19 16 – 14 3.60 TRUE
6 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 20 28 – 23 -4.40 FALSE
7 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 20 29 – 41 2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. North Harbour Aug 24 North Harbour -10.50
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 25 Bay of Plenty 5.60
3 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 25 Counties Manukau -1.30
4 Wellington vs. Taranaki Aug 26 Taranaki -2.80
5 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 26 Auckland 21.80
6 Manawatu vs. Tasman Aug 27 Tasman -7.00
7 Canterbury vs. Otago Aug 27 Canterbury 22.40

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.08 4.33 0.70
Sharks 3.67 2.15 1.50
Lions 3.60 7.41 -3.80
Western Province 3.41 3.30 0.10
Blue Bulls 1.70 2.32 -0.60
Pumas -9.78 -10.63 0.80
Griquas -10.42 -11.62 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Lions Aug 18 39 – 3 2.40 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Aug 19 40 – 41 1.50 FALSE
3 Griquas vs. Pumas Aug 20 21 – 27 4.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Blue Bulls Aug 25 Blue Bulls -7.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 26 Cheetahs 6.00
3 Western Province vs. Sharks Aug 26 Western Province 4.20

 

August 15, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 24

Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.10 8.49 1.60
Broncos 8.52 4.36 4.20
Raiders 5.81 9.94 -4.10
Cowboys 3.91 6.90 -3.00
Panthers 3.40 6.08 -2.70
Roosters 1.71 -1.17 2.90
Sharks 1.44 5.84 -4.40
Sea Eagles -0.35 -2.98 2.60
Dragons -0.69 -7.74 7.00
Eels -0.83 -0.81 -0.00
Rabbitohs -1.77 -1.82 0.00
Wests Tigers -4.19 -3.89 -0.30
Warriors -6.01 -6.02 0.00
Bulldogs -6.99 -1.34 -5.70
Knights -7.19 -16.94 9.70
Titans -8.92 -0.98 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 168 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 28 – 14 7.70 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Knights Aug 11 10 – 29 15.00 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Aug 11 32 – 10 8.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 12 42 – 16 9.10 TRUE
5 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 12 16 – 13 13.60 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 12 24 – 16 2.00 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 13 16 – 36 -5.50 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 13 30 – 26 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Titans Aug 17 Eels 11.60
2 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 18 Rabbitohs 8.20
3 Broncos vs. Dragons Aug 18 Broncos 12.70
4 Knights vs. Storm Aug 19 Storm -13.80
5 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 19 Roosters 9.40
6 Cowboys vs. Sharks Aug 19 Cowboys 6.00
7 Raiders vs. Panthers Aug 20 Raiders 5.90
8 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Aug 20 Sea Eagles -3.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 4.88 4.33 0.50
Lions 4.54 7.41 -2.90
Sharks 3.67 2.15 1.50
Western Province 2.47 3.30 -0.80
Blue Bulls 1.90 2.32 -0.40
Griquas -10.00 -11.62 1.60
Pumas -10.20 -10.63 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 12 31 – 47 6.80 FALSE
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Aug 12 45 – 34 3.90 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 12 25 – 30 20.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Lions Aug 18 Western Province 2.40
2 Blue Bulls vs. Cheetahs Aug 19 Blue Bulls 1.50
3 Griquas vs. Pumas Aug 20 Griquas 4.70

 

August 14, 2017

Belated Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

What Happened?

My apologies for the late predictions. Note first of all that they are exactly as I would have made them prior to the games being played because I just run my programs to implement the prediction algorithm. The results should help you believe that, I only got two correct.

Why did I miss this? I never expected such a schedule with some teams playing 3 games in 8 days, not to mention the Lions having only two games in 8 days apart and the Pumas only having to play 2 games.

Are there any more weeks like that? Surely this has been controversial in South Africa.

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.66 4.33 1.30
Lions 5.25 7.41 -2.20
Sharks 2.96 2.15 0.80
Blue Bulls 2.46 2.32 0.10
Western Province 1.91 3.30 -1.40
Pumas -10.20 -10.63 0.40
Griquas -10.78 -11.62 0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Aug 09 20 – 28 5.00 FALSE
2 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 09 34 – 45 -11.40 TRUE
3 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 09 44 – 34 -9.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Sharks Aug 12 Lions 6.80
2 Western Province vs. Blue Bulls Aug 12 Western Province 3.90
3 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 12 Cheetahs 20.90

 

August 8, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 23

Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.95 8.49 2.50
Broncos 7.45 4.36 3.10
Raiders 4.68 9.94 -5.30
Cowboys 4.41 6.90 -2.50
Panthers 2.90 6.08 -3.20
Sharks 2.51 5.84 -3.30
Eels 1.74 -0.81 2.50
Roosters 0.86 -1.17 2.00
Sea Eagles 0.08 -2.98 3.10
Dragons -2.02 -7.74 5.70
Rabbitohs -2.29 -1.82 -0.50
Wests Tigers -4.63 -3.89 -0.70
Warriors -4.87 -6.02 1.10
Bulldogs -6.48 -1.34 -5.10
Titans -7.60 -0.98 -6.60
Knights -9.75 -16.94 7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 160 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Eels Aug 03 4 – 20 -2.60 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Aug 04 24 – 26 4.90 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Aug 04 8 – 26 -0.30 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Aug 05 26 – 10 -4.00 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Broncos Aug 05 0 – 54 -4.20 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 05 12 – 30 4.90 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 06 36 – 18 -0.10 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 28 – 14 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Aug 10 Rabbitohs 7.70
2 Eels vs. Knights Aug 11 Eels 15.00
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Aug 11 Broncos 8.40
4 Dragons vs. Titans Aug 12 Dragons 9.10
5 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 12 Storm 13.60
6 Panthers vs. Cowboys Aug 12 Panthers 2.00
7 Warriors vs. Raiders Aug 13 Raiders -5.50
8 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 13 Sea Eagles -1.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 14.78 14.78 0.00
Tasman 9.54 9.54 0.00
Taranaki 7.04 7.04 0.00
Auckland 6.11 6.11 0.00
Counties Manukau 5.70 5.70 0.00
Waikato -0.26 -0.26 0.00
Otago -0.34 -0.34 0.00
North Harbour -1.27 -1.27 0.00
Wellington -1.62 -1.62 0.00
Manawatu -3.59 -3.59 0.00
Bay of Plenty -3.98 -3.98 0.00
Hawke’s Bay -5.85 -5.85 0.00
Northland -12.37 -12.37 0.00
Southland -16.50 -16.50 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Otago Aug 17 North Harbour 3.10
2 Tasman vs. Canterbury Aug 18 Canterbury -1.20
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Southland Aug 19 Hawke’s Bay 14.70
4 Taranaki vs. Waikato Aug 19 Taranaki 11.30
5 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Aug 19 Counties Manukau 3.60
6 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 20 Bay of Plenty -4.40
7 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 20 Manawatu 2.00