Posts written by David Scott (1793)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 8, 2026

AFL Predictions for Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sydney Swans 26.28 0.56 25.70
Geelong Cats 24.97 26.75 -1.80
Brisbane Lions 21.20 26.20 -5.00
Hawthorn Hawks 20.22 22.83 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 19.11 6.56 12.60
Adelaide Crows 15.04 15.32 -0.30
Melbourne Demons 9.05 1.64 7.40
Carlton Blues 6.99 -4.77 11.80
Western Bulldogs 4.93 26.06 -21.10
Collingwood 3.06 11.76 -8.70
GWS Giants -0.48 9.54 -10.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.87 10.24 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -3.24 -7.63 4.40
North Melbourne -10.83 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -18.07 -14.65 -3.40
West Coast Eagles -33.36 -39.36 6.00
Richmond Tigers -33.74 -29.44 -4.30
Essendon Bombers -37.26 -27.89 -9.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 213 matches played, 151 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 03 40 – 72 17.20 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Sept 04 107 – 74 2.30 TRUE
3 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 05 141 – 88 9.60 TRUE
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Sept 05 90 – 68 20.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Sept 11 Fremantle Dockers 5.10
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows Sept 12 Brisbane Lions 17.20

 

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September 6, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

Almost a tradition that I miss the start of a competition. For completeness, here are the predictions. As always, the predictions are not affected at all by the fact that most of the games have already been played.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.37 12.37 -0.00
Montpellier 6.36 6.36 -0.00
Stade Francais 5.68 5.68 0.00
Stade Rochelais 4.97 4.97 0.00
Clermont 4.21 4.21 -0.00
Section Paloise 4.18 4.18 -0.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.70 3.70 -0.00
Racing 92 3.59 3.59 0.00
Castres Olympique -0.29 -0.29 -0.00
Toulon -0.81 -0.81 0.00
Lyon -0.94 -0.94 0.00
Bayonne -2.02 -2.02 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.39 -5.39 -0.00
Vannes -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Toulon Sept 06 Bayonne 5.30
2 Castres Olympique vs. Vannes Sept 06 Castres Olympique 16.20
3 Lyon vs. Clermont Sept 06 Lyon 1.30
4 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Sept 06 Montpellier 8.70
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Sept 06 Stade Francais 17.60
6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Sept 06 Bordeaux Begles 6.60
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 07 Stade Toulousain -0.90

 

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September 1, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 27

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Team Ratings for Round 27

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Warriors 11.28 -1.18 12.50
Panthers 10.37 8.77 1.60
Dolphins 7.08 1.85 5.20
Roosters 6.37 9.50 -3.10
Sharks 6.04 7.25 -1.20
Storm 2.18 6.96 -4.80
Sea Eagles 1.10 0.21 0.90
Rabbitohs 0.85 -5.05 5.90
Bulldogs 0.36 2.13 -1.80
Knights -0.92 -14.06 13.10
Raiders -0.96 1.62 -2.60
Cowboys -2.78 -2.69 -0.10
Eels -3.48 -0.37 -3.10
Broncos -7.25 7.06 -14.30
Titans -7.82 -8.02 0.20
Wests Tigers -11.21 -7.26 -4.00
Dragons -11.23 -6.72 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 128 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 27 20 – 46 -2.20 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Aug 28 44 – 10 13.50 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Aug 28 24 – 10 8.90 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 29 22 – 42 -2.10 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 29 12 – 26 6.10 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 24 – 10 12.00 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Knights Aug 30 46 – 32 16.80 TRUE
8 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 30 38 – 18 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 27

Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Sept 03 Bulldogs 11.60
2 Titans vs. Dolphins Sept 04 Dolphins -10.90
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sept 04 Roosters -9.50
4 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Sept 05 Warriors 14.20
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Sept 05 Cowboys 2.20
6 Sharks vs. Storm Sept 05 Sharks 7.90
7 Dragons vs. Eels Sept 05 Eels -3.70
8 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Sept 05 Panthers 21.60

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 9.30 5.18 4.10
Bay of Plenty 6.91 9.80 -2.90
Otago 6.57 5.80 0.80
Canterbury 6.56 10.29 -3.70
Taranaki 5.84 7.57 -1.70
Waikato 2.79 -0.83 3.60
Northland 1.79 -5.96 7.70
North Harbour 0.49 -4.18 4.70
Tasman 0.08 0.68 -0.60
Auckland -1.79 -2.64 0.80
Counties Manukau -1.87 3.63 -5.50
Wellington -4.24 2.70 -6.90
Southland -11.76 -10.83 -0.90
Manawatu -14.52 -15.05 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 27 21 – 36 -19.00 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 28 19 – 22 -6.60 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 29 40 – 26 0.30 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Waikato Aug 29 43 – 38 7.30 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Aug 29 43 – 40 -14.40 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Aug 30 35 – 46 2.60 FALSE
7 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 30 20 – 10 3.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Auckland Sept 03 Taranaki 10.60
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sept 04 Hawke’s Bay 5.70
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Sept 05 Bay of Plenty 24.40
4 Tasman vs. Wellington Sept 05 Tasman 7.30
5 Waikato vs. Canterbury Sept 05 Canterbury -0.80
6 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Sept 06 Counties Manukau 12.90
7 North Harbour vs. Northland Sept 06 North Harbour 1.70

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Griquas 12.86 9.78 3.10
Lions 11.49 14.61 -3.10
Pumas 4.15 5.36 -1.20
Cheetahs -0.21 -2.42 2.20
Boland Cavaliers -2.77 -4.25 1.50
Sharks -3.57 -4.65 1.10
Bulls -7.38 -2.24 -5.10
Stormers -8.39 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Stormers Aug 29 36 – 12 22.60 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Bulls Aug 29 53 – 22 4.00 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 29 52 – 26 5.10 TRUE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Griquas Aug 31 17 – 48 -10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sept 06 Griquas 4.40
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sept 07 Pumas -1.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Quarter Final

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Team Ratings for Quarter Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 24.44 26.20 -1.80
Sydney Swans 23.04 0.56 22.50
Fremantle Dockers 22.75 6.56 16.20
Geelong Cats 22.64 26.75 -4.10
Hawthorn Hawks 16.57 22.83 -6.30
Adelaide Crows 14.94 15.32 -0.40
Carlton Blues 9.31 -4.77 14.10
Melbourne Demons 9.05 1.64 7.40
Western Bulldogs 5.03 26.06 -21.00
Collingwood 3.06 11.76 -8.70
GWS Giants -0.48 9.54 -10.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.87 10.24 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -3.24 -7.63 4.40
North Melbourne -10.83 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -18.07 -14.65 -3.40
West Coast Eagles -33.36 -39.36 6.00
Richmond Tigers -33.74 -29.44 -4.30
Essendon Bombers -37.26 -27.89 -9.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 209 matches played, 148 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Aug 28 96 – 93 1.70 TRUE
2 Melbourne Demons vs. Carlton Blues Aug 29 55 – 74 3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Quarter Finals

Here are the predictions for Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 03 Fremantle Dockers 17.20
2 Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues Sept 04 Geelong Cats 2.30
3 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 05 Sydney Swans 9.60
4 Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs Sept 05 Adelaide Crows 20.90

 

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August 25, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Warriors 11.59 -1.18 12.80
Panthers 9.81 8.77 1.00
Sharks 7.99 7.25 0.70
Roosters 7.79 9.50 -1.70
Dolphins 5.67 1.85 3.80
Bulldogs 0.93 2.13 -1.20
Storm 0.55 6.96 -6.40
Sea Eagles -0.33 0.21 -0.50
Rabbitohs -0.42 -5.05 4.60
Raiders -0.96 1.62 -2.60
Knights -1.23 -14.06 12.80
Cowboys -3.01 -2.69 -0.30
Eels -5.43 -0.37 -5.10
Broncos -5.62 7.06 -12.70
Titans -6.55 -8.02 1.50
Dragons -9.79 -6.72 -3.10
Wests Tigers -10.99 -7.26 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 188 matches played, 122 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 20 14 – 22 -4.50 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 21 30 – 34 10.80 FALSE
3 Dolphins vs. Eels Aug 21 34 – 16 14.30 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 24 – 44 6.70 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 22 26 – 45 -6.10 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 22 14 – 44 -7.60 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 23 22 – 30 -11.30 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 23 24 – 25 26.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 27 Storm -2.20
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Aug 28 Sea Eagles 13.50
3 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Aug 28 Panthers 8.90
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 29 Rabbitohs -2.10
5 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 29 Roosters 6.10
6 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 Cowboys 12.00
7 Warriors vs. Knights Aug 30 Warriors 16.80
8 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 30 Sharks -9.40

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 9.79 5.18 4.60
Canterbury 7.54 10.29 -2.80
Bay of Plenty 7.34 9.80 -2.50
Otago 6.86 5.80 1.10
Taranaki 4.87 7.57 -2.70
Waikato 2.51 -0.83 3.30
North Harbour 1.66 -4.18 5.80
Northland 0.95 -5.96 6.90
Tasman 0.92 0.68 0.20
Auckland -2.22 -2.64 0.40
Counties Manukau -2.83 3.63 -6.50
Wellington -3.27 2.70 -6.00
Southland -12.24 -10.83 -1.40
Manawatu -15.70 -15.05 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Northland Aug 20 12 – 36 14.00 FALSE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Aug 21 59 – 17 26.30 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 22 46 – 17 14.10 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Auckland Aug 22 27 – 19 6.50 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 22 28 – 24 5.90 TRUE
6 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 23 45 – 12 4.90 TRUE
7 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 23 61 – 22 9.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 27 Hawke’s Bay -19.00
2 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 28 Bay of Plenty -6.60
3 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 29 Taranaki 0.30
4 Otago vs. Waikato Aug 29 Otago 7.30
5 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Aug 29 North Harbour -14.40
6 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Aug 30 Wellington 2.60
7 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 30 Northland 3.00

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Griquas 11.74 9.78 2.00
Lions 11.35 14.61 -3.30
Pumas 3.02 5.36 -2.30
Cheetahs 0.93 -2.42 3.40
Boland Cavaliers -1.65 -4.25 2.60
Sharks -4.97 -4.65 -0.30
Bulls -5.98 -2.24 -3.70
Stormers -8.25 -10.00 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 22 14 – 38 -3.50 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Stormers Aug 22 26 – 50 8.50 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 22 22 – 22 -15.10 FALSE
4 Cheetahs vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 24 33 – 24 4.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Stormers Aug 29 Lions 22.60
2 Sharks vs. Bulls Aug 29 Sharks 4.00
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 29 Pumas 5.10
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Griquas Aug 31 Griquas -10.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 24.44 26.20 -1.80
Sydney Swans 23.04 0.56 22.50
Fremantle Dockers 22.75 6.56 16.20
Geelong Cats 22.64 26.75 -4.10
Hawthorn Hawks 16.57 22.83 -6.30
Adelaide Crows 14.94 15.32 -0.40
Melbourne Demons 10.76 1.64 9.10
Carlton Blues 7.61 -4.77 12.40
Western Bulldogs 4.92 26.06 -21.10
Collingwood 3.18 11.76 -8.60
GWS Giants -0.48 9.54 -10.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.87 10.24 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -3.24 -7.63 4.40
North Melbourne -10.83 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -18.07 -14.65 -3.40
West Coast Eagles -33.36 -39.36 6.00
Richmond Tigers -33.74 -29.44 -4.30
Essendon Bombers -37.26 -27.89 -9.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 207 matches played, 147 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 20 80 – 103 15.40 FALSE
2 Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 21 96 – 159 -1.20 TRUE
3 Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants Aug 22 157 – 101 21.20 TRUE
4 Carlton Blues vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 22 119 – 82 -11.30 FALSE
5 Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 22 133 – 76 69.70 TRUE
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs Aug 22 87 – 108 10.60 FALSE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 23 95 – 104 -8.00 TRUE
8 Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne Aug 23 123 – 70 43.10 TRUE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 23 45 – 107 -34.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Aug 28 Western Bulldogs 1.70
2 Melbourne Demons vs. Carlton Blues Aug 29 Melbourne Demons 3.10

 

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