Posts written by David Scott (1745)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 9, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.97 11.56 0.40
Bordeaux Begles 4.48 4.78 -0.30
Toulon 3.95 3.49 0.50
Section Paloise 2.62 2.21 0.40
Bayonne 2.00 1.48 0.50
Stade Rochelais 1.52 1.22 0.30
Clermont 1.48 1.88 -0.40
Racing 92 1.20 1.88 -0.70
Lyon 0.23 -0.45 0.70
Castres Olympique 0.18 0.59 -0.40
Montpellier -0.68 -0.21 -0.50
Stade Francais -1.65 -2.17 0.50
USA Perpignan -3.89 -3.37 -0.50
Montauban -10.52 -10.00 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais vs. Montauban Sept 06 47 – 24 14.30 TRUE
2 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Sept 07 19 – 26 1.60 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Sept 07 15 – 17 4.90 FALSE
4 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Sept 07 32 – 7 4.20 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. Toulon Sept 07 17 – 27 2.80 FALSE
6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais Sept 07 23 – 18 10.10 TRUE
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 08 24 – 34 -3.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Montauban vs. Lyon Sept 14 Lyon -4.30
2 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Sept 14 Bayonne 9.20
3 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Sept 14 Section Paloise 10.80
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Sept 14 Stade Rochelais 6.50
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Sept 14 Stade Toulousain 22.40
6 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Sept 14 Toulon 10.30
7 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 15 Racing 92 3.20

 

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.56 7.44 1.10
Storm 8.07 9.29 -1.20
Panthers 6.62 8.50 -1.90
Sharks 5.34 5.10 0.20
Broncos 4.19 -1.82 6.00
Bulldogs 3.05 0.07 3.00
Raiders 1.90 -3.61 5.50
Dolphins 1.52 -1.96 3.50
Sea Eagles 1.02 2.97 -2.00
Warriors -0.74 -1.68 0.90
Cowboys -1.69 4.11 -5.80
Eels -1.79 -3.02 1.20
Rabbitohs -5.19 -4.35 -0.80
Dragons -5.45 -4.55 -0.90
Titans -7.67 -5.50 -2.20
Wests Tigers -7.73 -10.97 3.20
Knights -10.01 -0.05 -10.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 204 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sept 04 30 – 14 -2.50 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Sept 05 27 – 26 5.80 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sept 05 36 – 6 15.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Panthers Sept 06 20 – 40 -7.90 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Sept 06 36 – 28 2.40 TRUE
6 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Sept 06 6 – 24 2.50 FALSE
7 Dolphins vs. Raiders Sept 07 62 – 24 -0.30 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Knights Sept 07 66 – 10 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Bulldogs Sept 12 Storm 8.00
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Sept 13 Panthers -3.90
3 Sharks vs. Roosters Sept 13 Roosters -0.20
4 Raiders vs. Broncos Sept 14 Raiders 0.70

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

By

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.33 4.02 6.30
Taranaki 9.08 5.30 3.80
Bay of Plenty 8.19 6.48 1.70
Hawke’s Bay 3.87 0.68 3.20
Wellington 3.05 6.60 -3.50
Tasman 1.63 3.49 -1.90
Auckland 0.35 -0.04 0.40
Otago 0.12 -1.15 1.30
Waikato -0.18 5.46 -5.60
Counties Manukau -2.01 -0.26 -1.70
North Harbour -2.24 1.50 -3.70
Southland -5.31 -5.90 0.60
Northland -9.51 -6.54 -3.00
Manawatu -11.22 -13.45 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Sept 04 22 – 19 3.30 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Northland Sept 05 29 – 10 10.60 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Sept 06 45 – 19 0.60 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Waikato Sept 06 36 – 26 -10.80 FALSE
5 Southland vs. Canterbury Sept 06 14 – 54 -8.90 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sept 07 17 – 43 7.90 FALSE
7 Tasman vs. Auckland Sept 07 21 – 29 6.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Wellington Sept 11 Wellington -9.60
2 Waikato vs. North Harbour Sept 12 Waikato 5.10
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sept 13 Bay of Plenty 7.30
4 Otago vs. Taranaki Sept 13 Taranaki -6.00
5 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sept 14 Auckland 14.60
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Sept 14 Canterbury 11.70
7 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sept 14 Counties Manukau -0.30

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 11.59 10.01 1.60
Cheetahs 2.36 4.33 -2.00
Griquas 2.32 -2.85 5.20
Bulls 2.01 5.94 -3.90
Pumas 0.52 -4.16 4.70
Sharks -0.60 6.68 -7.30
Boland Cavaliers -4.93 -10.00 5.10
Western Province -5.26 -1.94 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Sept 06 19 – 13 1.00 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Boland Cavaliers Sept 07 40 – 22 0.40 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Griquas Sept 07 37 – 7 9.60 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Sept 07 35 – 31 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Boland Cavaliers Sept 13 Lions 20.00
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Sept 13 Griquas 3.50

 

AFL Predictions for Finals Week 2

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 27.86 15.04 12.80
Western Bulldogs 25.54 18.20 7.30
Hawthorn Hawks 23.30 21.95 1.30
Adelaide Crows 17.49 2.69 14.80
Brisbane Lions 16.38 22.65 -6.30
Collingwood 13.55 5.39 8.20
Gold Coast Suns 13.27 -6.41 19.70
GWS Giants 9.94 9.08 0.90
Fremantle Dockers 6.56 5.99 0.60
Sydney Swans 1.16 12.60 -11.40
Melbourne Demons 0.76 -0.21 1.00
Carlton Blues -4.46 5.01 -9.50
St Kilda Saints -6.98 0.89 -7.90
Port Adelaide Power -12.97 7.63 -20.60
North Melbourne -23.62 -37.08 13.50
Essendon Bombers -27.28 -10.15 -17.10
Richmond Tigers -31.46 -31.00 -0.50
West Coast Eagles -41.44 -34.67 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 211 matches played, 146 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Sept 04 55 – 79 21.00 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 05 112 – 74 11.60 TRUE
3 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 06 88 – 107 0.70 FALSE
4 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Sept 06 79 – 80 6.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 12 Hawthorn Hawks -8.30
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns Sept 13 Brisbane Lions 7.10

 

September 2, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.56 11.56 -0.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.78 4.78 -0.00
Toulon 3.49 3.49 -0.00
Section Paloise 2.21 2.21 0.00
Clermont 1.88 1.88 -0.00
Racing 92 1.88 1.88 -0.00
Bayonne 1.48 1.48 0.00
Stade Rochelais 1.22 1.22 0.00
Castres Olympique 0.59 0.59 -0.00
Montpellier -0.21 -0.21 0.00
Lyon -0.45 -0.45 -0.00
Stade Francais -2.17 -2.17 0.00
USA Perpignan -3.37 -3.37 0.00
Montauban -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Francais vs. Montauban Sept 06 Stade Francais 14.30
2 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Sept 07 USA Perpignan 1.60
3 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Sept 07 Castres Olympique 4.90
4 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Sept 07 Lyon 4.20
5 Montpellier vs. Toulon Sept 07 Montpellier 2.80
6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais Sept 07 Bordeaux Begles 10.10
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 08 Stade Toulousain -3.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 27

By

Team Ratings for Round 27

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.90 9.29 -0.40
Roosters 7.87 7.44 0.40
Panthers 6.03 8.50 -2.50
Sharks 4.45 5.10 -0.60
Bulldogs 3.94 0.07 3.90
Raiders 3.38 -3.61 7.00
Broncos 3.36 -1.82 5.20
Sea Eagles 1.31 2.97 -1.70
Dolphins 0.04 -1.96 2.00
Warriors -1.02 -1.68 0.70
Cowboys -1.69 4.11 -5.80
Eels -3.57 -3.02 -0.60
Rabbitohs -4.50 -4.35 -0.20
Dragons -4.87 -4.55 -0.30
Wests Tigers -7.42 -10.97 3.50
Titans -7.98 -5.50 -2.50
Knights -8.23 -0.05 -8.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 196 matches played, 124 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 28 28 – 4 -1.20 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Eels Aug 29 22 – 26 7.10 FALSE
3 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 29 10 – 40 6.90 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 24 – 10 13.80 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 24 – 40 -1.80 TRUE
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 30 30 – 38 -1.30 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 31 40 – 16 14.70 TRUE
8 Dolphins vs. Titans Aug 31 36 – 30 11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 27

Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sept 04 Storm -2.50
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Sept 05 Sea Eagles 5.80
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sept 05 Roosters 15.40
4 Dragons vs. Panthers Sept 06 Panthers -7.90
5 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Sept 06 Titans 2.40
6 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Sept 06 Bulldogs 2.50
7 Dolphins vs. Raiders Sept 07 Raiders -0.30
8 Eels vs. Knights Sept 07 Eels 7.70

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 6

By

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Taranaki 11.10 5.30 5.80
Canterbury 8.45 4.02 4.40
Bay of Plenty 6.18 6.48 -0.30
Wellington 4.64 6.60 -2.00
Tasman 2.64 3.49 -0.80
Hawke’s Bay 2.27 0.68 1.60
Waikato 1.18 5.46 -4.30
Auckland -0.65 -0.04 -0.60
Otago -0.88 -1.15 0.30
Counties Manukau -1.97 -0.26 -1.70
North Harbour -2.28 1.50 -3.80
Southland -3.43 -5.90 2.50
Northland -8.50 -6.54 -2.00
Manawatu -12.58 -13.45 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 29 7 – 19 -3.40 TRUE
2 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Aug 30 53 – 14 21.70 TRUE
3 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 30 22 – 43 -8.20 TRUE
4 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 30 27 – 22 -9.90 FALSE
5 Tasman vs. Otago Aug 30 31 – 27 7.30 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Auckland Aug 31 36 – 17 6.50 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Southland Aug 31 10 – 25 10.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Sept 04 Counties Manukau 3.30
2 Otago vs. Northland Sept 05 Otago 10.60
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Sept 06 Hawke’s Bay 0.60
4 Manawatu vs. Waikato Sept 06 Waikato -10.80
5 Southland vs. Canterbury Sept 06 Canterbury -8.90
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sept 07 Taranaki 7.90
7 Tasman vs. Auckland Sept 07 Tasman 6.30

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 10.03 10.01 0.00
Griquas 3.88 -2.85 6.70
Cheetahs 2.53 4.33 -1.80
Bulls 1.84 5.94 -4.10
Pumas 1.23 -4.16 5.40
Sharks -1.31 6.68 -8.00
Boland Cavaliers -3.55 -10.00 6.40
Western Province -6.65 -1.94 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 30 10 – 40 7.20 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Bulls Aug 31 44 – 5 7.20 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 31 33 – 31 7.20 TRUE
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Aug 31 13 – 39 -0.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Sept 06 Sharks 1.00
2 Western Province vs. Boland Cavaliers Sept 07 Western Province 0.40
3 Lions vs. Griquas Sept 07 Lions 9.60
4 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Sept 07 Bulls 2.80

 

August 28, 2025

AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 25.92 15.04 10.90
Western Bulldogs 25.54 18.20 7.30
Hawthorn Hawks 21.79 21.95 -0.20
Adelaide Crows 20.54 2.69 17.80
Brisbane Lions 18.32 22.65 -4.30
Gold Coast Suns 12.43 -6.41 18.80
GWS Giants 11.45 9.08 2.40
Collingwood 10.50 5.39 5.10
Fremantle Dockers 7.39 5.99 1.40
Sydney Swans 1.16 12.60 -11.40
Melbourne Demons 0.76 -0.21 1.00
Carlton Blues -4.46 5.01 -9.50
St Kilda Saints -6.98 0.89 -7.90
Port Adelaide Power -12.97 7.63 -20.60
North Melbourne -23.62 -37.08 13.50
Essendon Bombers -27.28 -10.15 -17.10
Richmond Tigers -31.46 -31.00 -0.50
West Coast Eagles -41.44 -34.67 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 207 matches played, 145 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Aug 21 56 – 90 -16.70 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 22 82 – 76 10.90 TRUE
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 23 89 – 79 6.70 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 23 104 – 93 32.70 TRUE
5 North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 23 100 – 113 -36.70 TRUE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 23 71 – 67 -13.80 FALSE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Geelong Cats Aug 23 64 – 103 -48.70 TRUE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Aug 23 51 – 118 -26.00 TRUE
9 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 23 97 – 112 35.90 FALSE
10 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 27 153 – 58 43.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Sept 04 Adelaide Crows 21.00
2 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 05 Geelong Cats 11.60
3 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 06 GWS Giants 0.70
4 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Sept 06 Fremantle Dockers 6.00

 

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