AFL Predictions for Week 23
Team Ratings for Week 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle Dockers | 27.65 | 6.56 | 21.10 |
| Geelong Cats | 25.39 | 26.75 | -1.40 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 19.75 | 22.83 | -3.10 |
| Sydney Swans | 19.05 | 0.56 | 18.50 |
| Adelaide Crows | 16.32 | 15.32 | 1.00 |
| Brisbane Lions | 14.26 | 26.20 | -11.90 |
| Collingwood | 7.75 | 11.76 | -4.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | 7.18 | 1.64 | 5.50 |
| Western Bulldogs | 5.53 | 26.06 | -20.50 |
| GWS Giants | 2.71 | 9.54 | -6.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | 1.64 | -7.63 | 9.30 |
| Carlton Blues | 0.86 | -4.77 | 5.60 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -5.22 | 10.24 | -15.50 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -9.15 | -14.65 | 5.50 |
| North Melbourne | -13.96 | -21.71 | 7.80 |
| West Coast Eagles | -31.02 | -39.36 | 8.30 |
| Richmond Tigers | -37.66 | -29.44 | -8.20 |
| Essendon Bombers | -39.08 | -27.89 | -11.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 180 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 30 | 72 – 97 | -3.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 31 | 78 – 41 | 32.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 01 | 88 – 107 | -4.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne | Aug 01 | 99 – 83 | 36.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. GWS Giants | Aug 01 | 63 – 75 | 1.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 01 | 154 – 78 | -15.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 02 | 84 – 73 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons | Aug 02 | 105 – 114 | 0.30 | FALSE |
| 9 | Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 02 | 73 – 145 | -39.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 23
Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne | Aug 06 | Western Bulldogs | 19.50 |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 07 | Brisbane Lions | 5.50 |
| 3 | Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 08 | Fremantle Dockers | -9.50 |
| 4 | Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 08 | Sydney Swans | 39.20 |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers | Aug 08 | Geelong Cats | 75.50 |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 08 | Adelaide Crows | 65.00 |
| 7 | GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 09 | GWS Giants | 18.90 |
| 8 | West Coast Eagles vs. Collingwood | Aug 09 | Collingwood | -27.80 |
| 9 | St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 09 | St Kilda Saints | 0.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »