Posts written by David Scott (1745)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 10, 2025

AFL Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 20.67 15.04 5.60
Collingwood 20.28 5.39 14.90
Western Bulldogs 19.90 18.20 1.70
Adelaide Crows 18.92 2.69 16.20
Brisbane Lions 14.37 22.65 -8.30
Hawthorn Hawks 12.92 21.95 -9.00
Fremantle Dockers 8.32 5.99 2.30
Gold Coast Suns 4.34 -6.41 10.80
GWS Giants 2.44 9.08 -6.60
Carlton Blues 0.23 5.01 -4.80
Sydney Swans -0.40 12.60 -13.00
Melbourne Demons -1.79 -0.21 -1.60
St Kilda Saints -3.28 0.89 -4.20
Port Adelaide Power -4.49 7.63 -12.10
Essendon Bombers -12.07 -10.15 -1.90
North Melbourne -26.66 -37.08 10.40
Richmond Tigers -32.33 -31.00 -1.30
West Coast Eagles -33.76 -34.67 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 05 59 – 81 11.80 FALSE
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 68 – 63 17.60 TRUE
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans Jun 07 36 – 80 -17.00 TRUE
4 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 07 61 – 37 19.20 TRUE
5 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 07 50 – 66 23.40 FALSE
6 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 08 62 – 52 -6.50 FALSE
7 Carlton Blues vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 08 78 – 70 13.60 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Jun 09 71 – 72 -25.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 12 Western Bulldogs -23.20
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 13 Hawthorn Hawks 5.00
3 Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 Brisbane Lions 22.90
4 Essendon Bombers vs. Geelong Cats Jun 14 Geelong Cats -21.70
5 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 14 Fremantle Dockers -46.00
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 15 Port Adelaide Power 8.30
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Jun 15 Carlton Blues -23.00

 

June 3, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.40 12.09 1.30
Bulls 11.12 8.83 2.30
Glasgow 7.51 9.39 -1.90
Stormers 5.77 6.75 -1.00
Munster 4.95 9.28 -4.30
Edinburgh 3.68 0.09 3.60
Sharks 3.09 -2.94 6.00
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Scarlets 0.62 -10.65 11.30
Lions -1.37 6.73 -8.10
Connacht -1.88 -0.76 -1.10
Cardiff Rugby -2.01 -2.55 0.50
Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30
Benetton -2.30 1.02 -3.30
Ulster -4.44 2.52 -7.00
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -12.09 -16.17 4.10
Dragons -18.16 -15.41 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Stormers May 31 36 – 18 5.30 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Edinburgh May 31 42 – 33 14.00 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Scarlets Jun 01 33 – 21 20.00 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Munster Jun 01 25 – 24 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 08 Leinster 11.40
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 08 Bulls 10.50

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.74 8.76 6.00
Toulon 5.15 5.32 -0.20
Bordeaux Begles 3.98 3.96 0.00
Stade Rochelais 2.47 4.85 -2.40
Clermont 2.45 0.41 2.00
Montpellier 1.17 -0.96 2.10
Castres Olympique 1.06 -0.09 1.20
Section Paloise 0.70 1.38 -0.70
Racing 92 0.61 2.75 -2.10
Bayonne -0.41 -1.69 1.30
Lyon -0.48 -0.18 -0.30
Stade Francais -2.88 1.86 -4.70
USA Perpignan -4.58 -0.66 -3.90
Vannes -8.26 -10.00 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Jun 01 33 – 3 5.30 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Jun 01 55 – 20 9.10 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Jun 01 25 – 27 8.00 FALSE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Jun 01 38 – 15 11.90 TRUE
5 Vannes vs. Section Paloise Jun 01 26 – 52 -1.00 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jun 02 43 – 3 19.10 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 02 27 – 10 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Toulon Jun 08 Bayonne 1.90
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Vannes Jun 08 Bordeaux Begles 18.40
3 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Jun 08 Lyon 5.40
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Jun 08 Montpellier 5.50
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 08 Section Paloise 5.90
6 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jun 08 Stade Francais 3.00
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 08 Stade Toulousain -12.00

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 14.37 11.43 2.90
Blues 11.28 14.92 -3.60
Hurricanes 10.35 10.97 -0.60
Crusaders 9.94 8.99 1.00
Brumbies 6.35 6.19 0.20
Reds 2.76 1.35 1.40
Highlanders -2.95 -2.50 -0.40
Waratahs -6.93 -5.17 -1.80
Western Force -7.15 -6.41 -0.70
Fijian Drua -8.52 -7.98 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -8.96 -11.25 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 30 24 – 41 -13.30 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 30 31 – 33 0.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Waratahs May 31 46 – 6 20.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 31 64 – 12 20.60 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Fijian Drua May 31 52 – 7 12.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jun 06 Crusaders 11.20
2 Chiefs vs. Blues Jun 07 Chiefs 6.60
3 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 07 Brumbies 0.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 10.75 5.55 5.20
Sale Sharks 6.93 4.73 2.20
Leicester Tigers 5.49 3.27 2.20
Saracens 5.27 9.68 -4.40
Gloucester 4.57 -9.04 13.60
Bristol 3.89 9.58 -5.70
Northampton Saints -1.27 7.50 -8.80
Harlequins -2.64 -2.73 0.10
Exeter Chiefs -4.28 1.23 -5.50
Newcastle Falcons -17.96 -19.02 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Harlequins Jun 01 52 – 26 9.80 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Jun 01 26 – 30 -4.90 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Jun 01 41 – 26 11.70 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Jun 01 42 – 20 31.90 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Bath Jun 01 36 – 26 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Jun 07 Bath 13.40
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Jun 08 Leicester Tigers 5.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.93 9.29 0.60
Panthers 5.33 8.50 -3.20
Sharks 4.93 5.10 -0.20
Roosters 4.83 7.44 -2.60
Sea Eagles 3.47 2.97 0.50
Bulldogs 2.31 0.07 2.20
Cowboys 1.62 4.11 -2.50
Raiders 0.92 -3.61 4.50
Dolphins 0.17 -1.96 2.10
Warriors -0.52 -1.68 1.20
Broncos -1.72 -1.82 0.10
Dragons -3.23 -4.55 1.30
Knights -3.81 -0.05 -3.80
Eels -4.13 -3.02 -1.10
Rabbitohs -4.21 -4.35 0.10
Titans -7.09 -5.50 -1.60
Wests Tigers -8.80 -10.97 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Knights May 30 20 – 6 2.40 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Storm May 31 16 – 28 -14.40 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers May 31 32 – 28 14.50 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 31 34 – 6 6.30 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 01 30 – 36 0.50 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Eels Jun 01 18 – 10 9.70 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Raiders Jun 01 24 – 26 7.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Jun 05 Sea Eagles -4.30
2 Storm vs. Cowboys Jun 06 Storm 11.30
3 Dolphins vs. Dragons Jun 06 Dolphins 6.40
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 07 Sharks 8.90
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 07 Broncos 8.40
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 Raiders 8.10
7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 08 Panthers -11.10
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 09 Bulldogs 9.40

 

AFL Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 22.28 18.20 4.10
Collingwood 22.11 5.39 16.70
Geelong Cats 20.09 15.04 5.10
Adelaide Crows 19.96 2.69 17.30
Brisbane Lions 13.33 22.65 -9.30
Hawthorn Hawks 10.53 21.95 -11.40
Fremantle Dockers 8.32 5.99 2.30
GWS Giants 5.17 9.08 -3.90
Gold Coast Suns 4.91 -6.41 11.30
Carlton Blues 0.91 5.01 -4.10
Sydney Swans -2.38 12.60 -15.00
St Kilda Saints -3.28 0.89 -4.20
Melbourne Demons -3.62 -0.21 -3.40
Port Adelaide Power -7.22 7.63 -14.90
Essendon Bombers -12.74 -10.15 -2.60
North Melbourne -27.96 -37.08 9.10
Richmond Tigers -30.36 -31.00 0.60
West Coast Eagles -32.46 -34.67 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers May 29 90 – 72 40.50 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 30 107 – 56 5.40 TRUE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Fremantle Dockers May 31 64 – 75 10.90 FALSE
4 GWS Giants vs. Richmond Tigers May 31 80 – 77 53.20 TRUE
5 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows May 31 41 – 131 -0.40 TRUE
6 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 01 63 – 91 4.30 FALSE
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Geelong Cats Jun 01 73 – 116 -41.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 05 Western Bulldogs 11.80
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 Adelaide Crows 17.60
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans Jun 07 Sydney Swans -17.00
4 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 07 Geelong Cats 19.20
5 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 07 GWS Giants 23.40
6 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 08 West Coast Eagles -6.50
7 Carlton Blues vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 08 Carlton Blues 13.60
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Jun 09 Collingwood -25.70

 

May 27, 2025

Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 14.11 11.43 2.70
Blues 10.53 14.92 -4.40
Crusaders 9.74 8.99 0.80
Hurricanes 9.24 10.97 -1.70
Brumbies 6.54 6.19 0.30
Reds 1.63 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -2.69 -2.50 -0.20
Waratahs -6.19 -5.17 -1.00
Western Force -7.15 -6.41 -0.70
Fijian Drua -7.39 -7.98 0.60
Moana Pasifika -7.85 -11.25 3.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders May 23 15 – 12 17.10 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Hurricanes May 23 27 – 31 -3.60 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika May 24 85 – 7 22.00 TRUE
4 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 24 17 – 22 3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs May 30 Chiefs -13.30
2 Brumbies vs. Crusaders May 30 Brumbies 0.80
3 Blues vs. Waratahs May 31 Blues 20.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika May 31 Hurricanes 20.60
5 Reds vs. Fijian Drua May 31 Reds 12.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.12 9.29 0.80
Panthers 5.47 8.50 -3.00
Roosters 5.33 7.44 -2.10
Sharks 4.93 5.10 -0.20
Sea Eagles 2.53 2.97 -0.40
Bulldogs 2.31 0.07 2.20
Cowboys 2.14 4.11 -2.00
Raiders 0.42 -3.61 4.00
Dolphins 0.17 -1.96 2.10
Broncos -0.78 -1.82 1.00
Warriors -0.88 -1.68 0.80
Knights -3.24 -0.05 -3.20
Dragons -3.79 -4.55 0.80
Rabbitohs -3.85 -4.35 0.50
Eels -4.27 -3.02 -1.30
Titans -7.28 -5.50 -1.80
Wests Tigers -9.33 -10.97 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins May 22 8 – 44 8.50 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles May 23 30 – 10 -6.00 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Knights May 24 6 – 25 11.20 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Sharks May 24 42 – 16 1.30 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Raiders May 25 10 – 16 3.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Knights May 30 Dragons 2.40
2 Titans vs. Storm May 31 Storm -14.40
3 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers May 31 Cowboys 14.50
4 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 31 Sea Eagles 6.30
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 01 Rabbitohs 0.50
6 Panthers vs. Eels Jun 01 Panthers 9.70
7 Roosters vs. Raiders Jun 01 Roosters 7.90

 

AFL Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 22.28 18.20 4.10
Geelong Cats 19.87 15.04 4.80
Collingwood 19.03 5.39 13.60
Brisbane Lions 15.02 22.65 -7.60
Adelaide Crows 14.48 2.69 11.80
Hawthorn Hawks 13.62 21.95 -8.30
GWS Giants 8.51 9.08 -0.60
Fremantle Dockers 6.67 5.99 0.70
Gold Coast Suns 6.57 -6.41 13.00
Sydney Swans 3.10 12.60 -9.50
Carlton Blues 0.91 5.01 -4.10
Melbourne Demons -1.32 -0.21 -1.10
St Kilda Saints -5.58 0.89 -6.50
Port Adelaide Power -7.22 7.63 -14.90
Essendon Bombers -14.43 -10.15 -4.30
North Melbourne -27.96 -37.08 9.10
West Coast Eagles -32.23 -34.67 2.40
Richmond Tigers -33.70 -31.00 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs May 22 127 – 113 6.90 TRUE
2 Essendon Bombers vs. Richmond Tigers May 23 81 – 58 18.10 TRUE
3 Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants May 24 82 – 110 8.50 FALSE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions May 24 60 – 93 16.20 FALSE
5 North Melbourne vs. Collingwood May 24 63 – 108 -47.60 TRUE
6 Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power May 24 100 – 51 20.80 TRUE
7 Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles May 25 128 – 62 55.10 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Sydney Swans May 25 131 – 78 -0.50 FALSE
9 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns May 25 61 – 80 2.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers May 29 Brisbane Lions 40.50
2 Collingwood vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 30 Collingwood 5.40
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Fremantle Dockers May 31 Gold Coast Suns 10.90
4 GWS Giants vs. Richmond Tigers May 31 GWS Giants 53.20
5 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows May 31 Adelaide Crows -0.40
6 Melbourne Demons vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 01 Melbourne Demons 4.30
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Geelong Cats Jun 01 Geelong Cats -41.10

 

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