NRL Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.50 | 9.29 | 1.20 |
| Panthers | 6.69 | 8.50 | -1.80 |
| Sharks | 5.59 | 5.10 | 0.50 |
| Roosters | 4.42 | 7.44 | -3.00 |
| Bulldogs | 3.85 | 0.07 | 3.80 |
| Cowboys | 3.07 | 4.11 | -1.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 2.69 | 2.97 | -0.30 |
| Broncos | -0.23 | -1.82 | 1.60 |
| Raiders | -0.40 | -3.61 | 3.20 |
| Warriors | -0.79 | -1.68 | 0.90 |
| Dolphins | -1.11 | -1.96 | 0.80 |
| Knights | -3.31 | -0.05 | -3.30 |
| Rabbitohs | -4.29 | -4.35 | 0.10 |
| Dragons | -4.34 | -4.55 | 0.20 |
| Eels | -6.51 | -3.02 | -3.50 |
| Titans | -6.93 | -5.50 | -1.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -8.89 | -10.97 | 2.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Dolphins | May 08 | 16 – 20 | -2.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Titans | May 09 | 20 – 24 | 7.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Broncos | May 09 | 22 – 14 | -2.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | May 10 | 20 – 32 | -0.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Warriors | May 10 | 14 – 15 | 0.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | May 10 | 30 – 30 | -0.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Wests Tigers | May 11 | 64 – 0 | 19.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sea Eagles vs. Sharks | May 11 | 14 – 30 | 1.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Knights vs. Eels | May 16 | Knights | 6.20 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Roosters | May 16 | Bulldogs | 2.40 |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Warriors | May 17 | Dolphins | 3.20 |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Sea Eagles | May 17 | Cowboys | 3.40 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Storm | May 17 | Storm | -1.90 |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Dragons | May 18 | Broncos | 7.10 |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Titans | May 18 | Raiders | 9.50 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | May 18 | Rabbitohs | -1.60 |
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