Posts written by David Scott (1745)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 8, 2025

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.79 11.43 0.40
Blues 11.77 14.92 -3.10
Hurricanes 9.63 10.97 -1.30
Crusaders 9.45 8.99 0.50
Brumbies 4.70 6.19 -1.50
Reds 1.83 1.35 0.50
Highlanders -2.19 -2.50 0.30
Western Force -5.01 -6.41 1.40
Waratahs -6.07 -5.17 -0.90
Fijian Drua -7.68 -7.98 0.30
Moana Pasifika -7.70 -11.25 3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 04 27 – 15 14.30 TRUE
2 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs Apr 05 45 – 28 1.10 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Apr 05 14 – 31 -12.50 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 19 – 18 6.40 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Highlanders Apr 05 29 – 20 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Apr 11 Hurricanes 3.70
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Apr 11 Chiefs -13.90
3 Blues vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 12 Blues 23.00
4 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua Apr 12 Highlanders 9.50
5 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 12 Reds 0.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.44 9.29 1.10
Panthers 6.60 8.50 -1.90
Sharks 4.68 5.10 -0.40
Roosters 3.85 7.44 -3.60
Sea Eagles 3.18 2.97 0.20
Bulldogs 2.70 0.07 2.60
Cowboys 2.24 4.11 -1.90
Broncos 0.75 -1.82 2.60
Warriors -1.24 -1.68 0.40
Knights -1.55 -0.05 -1.50
Dolphins -2.57 -1.96 -0.60
Raiders -2.71 -3.61 0.90
Rabbitohs -2.75 -4.35 1.60
Dragons -4.30 -4.55 0.30
Titans -4.82 -5.50 0.70
Eels -5.82 -3.02 -2.80
Wests Tigers -8.70 -10.97 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 03 24 – 20 -5.30 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 04 18 – 22 8.60 FALSE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 04 20 – 14 -4.70 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 05 23 – 22 1.60 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Apr 05 10 – 36 3.10 FALSE
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 46 – 24 11.40 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 06 24 – 48 -2.40 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 06 20 – 0 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Panthers Apr 10 Panthers -6.20
2 Dragons vs. Titans Apr 11 Dragons 3.50
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 11 Roosters -0.10
4 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Apr 12 Sharks 4.50
5 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Apr 12 Cowboys -2.00
6 Eels vs. Raiders Apr 12 Raiders -3.10
7 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 13 Storm 15.20
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Apr 13 Knights 10.10

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 24.22 21.95 2.30
Brisbane Lions 18.34 22.65 -4.30
Geelong Cats 17.09 15.04 2.10
Collingwood 13.76 5.39 8.40
Western Bulldogs 12.46 18.20 -5.70
GWS Giants 11.53 9.08 2.40
Sydney Swans 11.07 12.60 -1.50
Adelaide Crows 9.10 2.69 6.40
St Kilda Saints 4.51 0.89 3.60
Fremantle Dockers 2.66 5.99 -3.30
Carlton Blues 1.92 5.01 -3.10
Gold Coast Suns 1.74 -6.41 8.20
Port Adelaide Power 1.29 7.63 -6.30
Melbourne Demons -10.73 -0.21 -10.50
Essendon Bombers -11.08 -10.15 -0.90
North Melbourne -30.41 -37.08 6.70
Richmond Tigers -32.32 -31.00 -1.30
West Coast Eagles -37.53 -34.67 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 63 – 46 10.20 TRUE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 04 85 – 46 38.80 TRUE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 05 91 – 90 4.50 TRUE
4 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 05 90 – 118 -41.90 TRUE
5 North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans Apr 05 52 – 117 -25.00 TRUE
6 GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 06 132 – 51 56.40 TRUE
7 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 06 72 – 89 12.00 FALSE
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 06 97 – 81 -1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Apr 10 Adelaide Crows 3.00
2 Collingwood vs. Sydney Swans Apr 11 Collingwood 2.70
3 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns Apr 12 Gold Coast Suns -32.10
4 Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 12 Carlton Blues 39.50
5 Western Bulldogs vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 12 Brisbane Lions -5.90
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Apr 12 Melbourne Demons 0.40
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Fremantle Dockers Apr 13 Fremantle Dockers -35.00
8 St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants Apr 13 GWS Giants -7.00
9 Port Adelaide Power vs. Hawthorn Hawks Apr 13 Hawthorn Hawks -11.90

 

April 1, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.06 12.09 1.00
Glasgow 9.54 9.39 0.10
Bulls 8.88 8.83 0.10
Munster 5.32 9.28 -4.00
Stormers 4.77 6.75 -2.00
Edinburgh 2.13 0.09 2.00
Lions 1.40 6.73 -5.30
Sharks 1.11 -2.94 4.10
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ulster -0.58 2.52 -3.10
Connacht -1.42 -0.76 -0.70
Ospreys -1.72 -2.51 0.80
Scarlets -3.25 -10.65 7.40
Benetton -3.99 1.02 -5.00
Cardiff Rugby -4.21 -2.55 -1.70
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -9.74 -16.17 6.40
Dragons -15.60 -15.41 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Mar 29 38 – 5 21.50 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Stormers Mar 29 38 – 34 -0.90 FALSE
3 Connacht vs. Munster Mar 30 24 – 30 -3.70 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Zebre Mar 30 63 – 24 21.60 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Mar 30 38 – 22 -1.50 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Leinster Mar 30 7 – 10 -7.40 TRUE
7 Benetton vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 30 20 – 19 7.00 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Lions Mar 30 42 – 0 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Sharks Apr 19 Edinburgh 6.50
2 Lions vs. Benetton Apr 19 Lions 10.90
3 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Apr 20 Ospreys 5.00
4 Stormers vs. Connacht Apr 20 Stormers 11.70
5 Munster vs. Bulls Apr 20 Munster 1.90
6 Dragons vs. Scarlets Apr 20 Scarlets -9.80
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Apr 20 Leinster 16.10
8 Zebre vs. Glasgow Apr 20 Glasgow -13.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 21

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Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.71 8.76 3.90
Toulon 6.83 5.32 1.50
Bordeaux Begles 5.89 3.96 1.90
Montpellier 1.35 -0.96 2.30
Clermont 0.68 0.41 0.30
Stade Rochelais 0.67 4.85 -4.20
Castres Olympique 0.66 -0.09 0.80
Lyon 0.46 -0.18 0.60
Bayonne 0.37 -1.69 2.10
Racing 92 0.12 2.75 -2.60
Section Paloise -0.58 1.38 -2.00
Stade Francais -1.50 1.86 -3.40
USA Perpignan -3.92 -0.66 -3.30
Vannes -8.03 -10.00 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Mar 30 28 – 14 5.30 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Mar 30 28 – 26 -0.10 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 30 33 – 19 5.20 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Mar 30 38 – 32 9.00 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Mar 30 55 – 10 16.30 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. USA Perpignan Mar 30 20 – 20 2.70 FALSE
7 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 31 36 – 31 0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Vannes Apr 20 Castres Olympique 14.30
2 Lyon vs. Montpellier Apr 20 Lyon 7.00
3 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Apr 20 Section Paloise 0.50
4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Apr 20 Stade Toulousain -7.10
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Apr 20 Stade Rochelais 6.10
6 Toulon vs. Clermont Apr 20 Toulon 13.20
7 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Apr 20 USA Perpignan 2.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 12.15 14.92 -2.80
Chiefs 11.94 11.43 0.50
Hurricanes 9.26 10.97 -1.70
Crusaders 9.13 8.99 0.10
Brumbies 4.70 6.19 -1.50
Reds 1.67 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -1.80 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.40 -6.41 1.00
Waratahs -5.43 -5.17 -0.30
Fijian Drua -7.36 -7.98 0.60
Moana Pasifika -8.34 -11.25 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 28 57 – 12 16.70 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Mar 28 34 – 27 11.10 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 29 29 – 45 23.60 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Western Force Mar 29 28 – 24 11.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Reds Apr 04 Chiefs 14.30
2 Moana Pasifika vs. Waratahs Apr 05 Moana Pasifika 1.10
3 Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders Apr 05 Crusaders -12.50
4 Blues vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 Blues 6.40
5 Western Force vs. Highlanders Apr 05 Western Force 0.40

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.73 5.55 8.20
Sale Sharks 4.22 4.73 -0.50
Leicester Tigers 4.03 3.27 0.80
Gloucester 3.42 -9.04 12.50
Bristol 3.07 9.58 -6.50
Northampton Saints 2.23 7.50 -5.30
Harlequins 1.63 -2.73 4.40
Saracens 1.51 9.68 -8.20
Exeter Chiefs -4.48 1.23 -5.70
Newcastle Falcons -18.58 -19.02 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Mar 29 27 – 24 9.90 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Harlequins Mar 30 47 – 28 18.50 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 30 17 – 15 25.30 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 30 53 – 28 2.30 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Mar 31 22 – 29 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 19 Northampton Saints -14.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 20 Bath -11.70
3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Apr 20 Harlequins 3.90
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 20 Saracens 4.60
5 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 Bristol 5.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.51 9.29 0.20
Panthers 7.20 8.50 -1.30
Sharks 5.16 5.10 0.10
Roosters 4.38 7.44 -3.10
Sea Eagles 4.11 2.97 1.10
Bulldogs 2.04 0.07 2.00
Cowboys 1.63 4.11 -2.50
Broncos 0.23 -1.82 2.00
Knights -0.88 -0.05 -0.80
Warriors -1.24 -1.68 0.40
Raiders -3.19 -3.61 0.40
Rabbitohs -3.28 -4.35 1.10
Titans -3.63 -5.50 1.90
Dolphins -3.75 -1.96 -1.80
Dragons -4.34 -4.55 0.20
Eels -5.77 -3.02 -2.80
Wests Tigers -8.17 -10.97 2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Mar 27 28 – 18 -9.20 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Titans Mar 28 12 – 30 13.50 FALSE
3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 28 12 – 20 -3.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 29 14 – 8 -12.50 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 29 30 – 20 7.40 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 6 – 20 8.00 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 30 26 – 12 12.70 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 30 24 – 26 -3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 03 Sharks -5.30
2 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 04 Panthers 8.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 04 Roosters -4.70
4 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 05 Eels 1.60
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Apr 05 Titans 3.10
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 Broncos 11.40
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 06 Storm -2.40
8 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 06 Bulldogs 5.90

 

AFL Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 24.22 21.95 2.30
Brisbane Lions 19.46 22.65 -3.20
Geelong Cats 17.06 15.04 2.00
Western Bulldogs 13.83 18.20 -4.40
Collingwood 12.95 5.39 7.60
GWS Giants 9.70 9.08 0.60
Adelaide Crows 8.68 2.69 6.00
Sydney Swans 8.31 12.60 -4.30
Port Adelaide Power 3.39 7.63 -4.20
Carlton Blues 2.73 5.01 -2.30
St Kilda Saints 2.41 0.89 1.50
Gold Coast Suns 2.15 -6.41 8.60
Fremantle Dockers 1.29 5.99 -4.70
Melbourne Demons -10.70 -0.21 -10.50
Essendon Bombers -11.08 -10.15 -0.90
North Melbourne -27.64 -37.08 9.40
Richmond Tigers -33.44 -31.00 -2.40
West Coast Eagles -35.71 -34.67 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 27 72 – 60 -6.30 FALSE
2 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 28 75 – 83 -12.10 TRUE
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 29 70 – 61 5.60 TRUE
4 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 29 62 – 120 6.40 FALSE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 29 135 – 53 28.80 TRUE
6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Mar 29 76 – 64 28.10 TRUE
7 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne Mar 30 114 – 78 49.50 TRUE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 30 68 – 106 -36.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 Collingwood 10.20
2 Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 04 Geelong Cats 38.80
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 05 Gold Coast Suns 4.50
4 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 05 Brisbane Lions -41.90
5 North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans Apr 05 Sydney Swans -25.00
6 GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 06 GWS Giants 56.40
7 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 06 Port Adelaide Power 12.00
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 06 Western Bulldogs -1.50

 

March 25, 2025

AFL Predictions for Week 4

By

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 25.49 21.95 3.50
Brisbane Lions 19.05 22.65 -3.60
Geelong Cats 17.47 15.04 2.40
Western Bulldogs 14.32 18.20 -3.90
Collingwood 12.95 5.39 7.60
Adelaide Crows 9.78 2.69 7.10
GWS Giants 8.43 9.08 -0.70
Sydney Swans 8.31 12.60 -4.30
Port Adelaide Power 4.81 7.63 -2.80
Carlton Blues 2.24 5.01 -2.80
Fremantle Dockers 1.13 5.99 -4.90
St Kilda Saints -1.11 0.89 -2.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.98 -6.41 4.40
Melbourne Demons -6.56 -0.21 -6.40
Essendon Bombers -12.50 -10.15 -2.40
North Melbourne -28.74 -37.08 8.30
Richmond Tigers -29.93 -31.00 1.10
West Coast Eagles -35.55 -34.67 -0.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 20 60 – 80 -24.30 TRUE
2 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Mar 21 70 – 76 3.70 FALSE
3 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Mar 22 100 – 161 -3.80 TRUE
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 22 140 – 68 41.30 TRUE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Geelong Cats Mar 22 98 – 91 -10.30 FALSE
6 Brisbane Lions vs. West Coast Eagles Mar 23 94 – 75 72.70 TRUE
7 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Mar 23 125 – 66 -33.40 FALSE
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Mar 23 65 – 68 6.00 FALSE

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 27 Port Adelaide Power -6.30
2 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 28 Western Bulldogs -12.10
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 29 Brisbane Lions 5.60
4 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 29 Melbourne Demons 6.40
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 29 St Kilda Saints 28.80
6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Mar 29 Hawthorn Hawks 28.10
7 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne Mar 30 Adelaide Crows 49.50
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 30 Fremantle Dockers -36.70
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