Posts written by David Scott (1745)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 11, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

Unfortunately my predictions for the first round were incorrect because I had the Dolphins playing at home, when in fact the Rabbitohs were at home. The results below use the correct home ground and show the Rabbitohs as predicted winners rather than the Dolphins.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.26 9.29 1.00
Panthers 8.71 8.50 0.20
Roosters 5.66 7.44 -1.80
Sharks 4.89 5.10 -0.20
Sea Eagles 4.13 2.97 1.20
Cowboys 2.96 4.11 -1.20
Bulldogs 0.43 0.07 0.40
Broncos -0.04 -1.82 1.80
Knights -0.38 -0.05 -0.30
Dolphins -2.07 -1.96 -0.10
Raiders -2.59 -3.61 1.00
Warriors -2.69 -1.68 -1.00
Eels -3.99 -3.02 -1.00
Rabbitohs -4.23 -4.35 0.10
Dragons -4.90 -4.55 -0.30
Titans -5.50 -5.50 -0.00
Wests Tigers -10.64 -10.97 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 02 30 – 8 -1.90 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 02 28 – 22 3.40 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 06 14 – 50 12.30 FALSE
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 07 8 – 10 -7.90 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins Mar 07 16 – 14 0.60 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Mar 08 20 – 28 -1.60 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Mar 08 42 – 12 1.90 TRUE
8 Storm vs. Eels Mar 09 56 – 18 15.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Dolphins Mar 13 Knights 4.70
2 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Mar 14 Sea Eagles -3.30
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Mar 14 Panthers 6.00
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Mar 15 Dragons 2.30
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 15 Cowboys 1.10
6 Raiders vs. Broncos Mar 15 Raiders 0.40
7 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 Eels 9.60
8 Bulldogs vs. Titans Mar 16 Bulldogs 8.90

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 23.59 21.95 1.60
Brisbane Lions 22.65 22.65 -0.00
Western Bulldogs 18.20 18.20 0.00
Geelong Cats 15.04 15.04 0.00
GWS Giants 11.68 9.08 2.60
Sydney Swans 10.97 12.60 -1.60
Port Adelaide Power 7.63 7.63 -0.00
Fremantle Dockers 5.99 5.99 0.00
Carlton Blues 5.01 5.01 -0.00
Collingwood 2.78 5.39 -2.60
Adelaide Crows 2.69 2.69 -0.00
St Kilda Saints 0.89 0.89 0.00
Melbourne Demons -0.21 -0.21 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -6.41 -6.41 0.00
Essendon Bombers -10.15 -10.15 -0.00
Richmond Tigers -31.00 -31.00 0.00
West Coast Eagles -34.67 -34.67 -0.00
North Melbourne -37.08 -37.08 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 76 – 96 1.60 FALSE
2 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 104 – 52 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Mar 13 Carlton Blues -36.00
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 14 Hawthorn Hawks 33.70
3 Geelong Cats vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 15 Geelong Cats 20.00
4 Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions Mar 15 Brisbane Lions -0.70
5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 15 Collingwood 6.20
6 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Mar 15 Western Bulldogs 55.30
7 Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints Mar 16 Adelaide Crows 12.80
8 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants Mar 16 GWS Giants -0.90
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 16 Gold Coast Suns -17.30

 

March 4, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.75 12.09 1.70
Glasgow 8.10 9.39 -1.30
Bulls 7.44 8.83 -1.40
Lions 4.79 6.73 -1.90
Munster 4.39 9.28 -4.90
Stormers 4.23 6.75 -2.50
Edinburgh 1.54 0.09 1.50
Sharks 1.35 -2.94 4.30
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ospreys -0.01 -2.51 2.50
Ulster -0.55 2.52 -3.10
Connacht -1.62 -0.76 -0.90
Scarlets -3.42 -10.65 7.20
Benetton -3.62 1.02 -4.60
Cardiff Rugby -5.70 -2.55 -3.10
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -9.65 -16.17 6.50
Dragons -15.29 -15.41 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 95 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Mar 01 28 – 34 10.80 FALSE
2 Zebre vs. Dragons Mar 01 31 – 21 11.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 38 – 14 3.00 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 02 16 – 19 7.30 FALSE
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 02 42 – 24 26.90 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Scarlets Mar 02 30 – 28 10.20 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Benetton Mar 02 38 – 30 7.40 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Ospreys Mar 02 31 – 32 16.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 09 Lions -0.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.23 8.76 3.50
Toulon 6.66 5.32 1.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.80 3.96 1.80
Stade Rochelais 1.37 4.85 -3.50
Montpellier 1.24 -0.96 2.20
Lyon 0.84 -0.18 1.00
Clermont 0.68 0.41 0.30
Section Paloise 0.63 1.38 -0.80
Castres Olympique 0.20 -0.09 0.30
Bayonne -0.04 -1.69 1.60
Racing 92 -0.50 2.75 -3.30
Stade Francais -1.66 1.86 -3.50
USA Perpignan -3.80 -0.66 -3.10
Vannes -7.92 -10.00 2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 02 27 – 20 1.10 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Mar 02 21 – 17 7.90 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Mar 02 29 – 47 6.60 FALSE
4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 02 22 – 17 3.80 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Vannes Mar 02 63 – 21 24.20 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 17 – 29 -2.20 TRUE
7 Bayonne vs. Clermont Mar 03 31 – 18 6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Mar 23 Clermont 6.20
2 Lyon vs. Vannes Mar 23 Lyon 15.60
3 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Mar 23 Section Paloise 7.70
4 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne Mar 23 Stade Francais 4.60
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Mar 23 Stade Rochelais 7.90
6 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Mar 23 Toulon 16.20
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 24 Bordeaux Begles 1.10

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

By

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 13.68 14.92 -1.20
Chiefs 13.08 11.43 1.70
Hurricanes 9.54 10.97 -1.40
Crusaders 8.71 8.99 -0.30
Brumbies 4.77 6.19 -1.40
Reds 1.60 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -1.95 -2.50 0.60
Waratahs -5.20 -5.17 -0.00
Western Force -6.03 -6.41 0.40
Fijian Drua -6.80 -7.98 1.20
Moana Pasifika -10.87 -11.25 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Feb 28 29 – 31 -6.00 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 28 29 – 24 5.10 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 01 49 – 34 11.90 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 01 29 – 33 -0.10 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 01 24 – 28 -4.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 07 Blues 12.90
2 Fijian Drua vs. Chiefs Mar 08 Chiefs -15.90
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 08 Hurricanes -16.90
4 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 08 Waratahs 4.30
5 Crusaders vs. Reds Mar 09 Crusaders 11.10

 

AFL Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 22.65 22.65 -0.00
Hawthorn Hawks 21.95 21.95 -0.00
Western Bulldogs 18.20 18.20 0.00
Geelong Cats 15.04 15.04 0.00
Sydney Swans 12.60 12.60 -0.00
GWS Giants 9.08 9.08 -0.00
Port Adelaide Power 7.63 7.63 -0.00
Fremantle Dockers 5.99 5.99 0.00
Collingwood 5.39 5.39 0.00
Carlton Blues 5.01 5.01 -0.00
Adelaide Crows 2.69 2.69 -0.00
St Kilda Saints 0.89 0.89 0.00
Melbourne Demons -0.21 -0.21 -0.00
Gold Coast Suns -6.41 -6.41 0.00
Essendon Bombers -10.15 -10.15 -0.00
Richmond Tigers -31.00 -31.00 0.00
West Coast Eagles -34.67 -34.67 -0.00
North Melbourne -37.08 -37.08 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 06 Brisbane Lions 11.60
2 Sydney Swans vs. Hawthorn Hawks Mar 07 Sydney Swans 1.60
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Mar 08 Gold Coast Suns 14.70
4 GWS Giants vs. Collingwood Mar 09 GWS Giants 14.70

 

February 25, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 12

By

Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.73 12.09 2.60
Glasgow 9.33 9.39 -0.10
Bulls 8.23 8.83 -0.60
Munster 5.60 9.28 -3.70
Stormers 3.44 6.75 -3.30
Lions 3.33 6.73 -3.40
Sharks 2.81 -2.94 5.80
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Ulster 0.35 2.52 -2.20
Edinburgh 0.34 0.09 0.30
Ospreys -1.23 -2.51 1.30
Connacht -1.69 -0.76 -0.90
Benetton -3.55 1.02 -4.60
Scarlets -4.32 -10.65 6.30
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -6.68 -2.55 -4.10
Zebre -9.49 -16.17 6.70
Dragons -15.46 -15.41 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Lions Feb 23 31 – 19 6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Mar 01 Munster 10.80
2 Zebre vs. Dragons Mar 01 Zebre 11.50
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 Lions 3.00
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 02 Bulls 7.30
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Mar 02 Leinster 26.90
6 Ulster vs. Scarlets Mar 02 Ulster 10.20
7 Connacht vs. Benetton Mar 02 Connacht 7.40
8 Glasgow vs. Ospreys Mar 02 Glasgow 16.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.56 8.76 2.80
Toulon 7.08 5.32 1.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.46 3.96 1.50
Montpellier 1.44 -0.96 2.40
Stade Rochelais 1.43 4.85 -3.40
Clermont 1.07 0.41 0.70
Lyon 0.56 -0.18 0.70
Racing 92 0.38 2.75 -2.40
Castres Olympique -0.03 -0.09 0.10
Section Paloise -0.23 1.38 -1.60
Bayonne -0.51 -1.69 1.20
Stade Francais -1.71 1.86 -3.60
USA Perpignan -3.47 -0.66 -2.80
Vannes -7.31 -10.00 2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Feb 23 30 – 25 4.60 TRUE
2 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Feb 23 23 – 6 9.60 TRUE
3 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Feb 23 21 – 26 7.70 FALSE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Feb 23 41 – 6 16.00 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Feb 23 24 – 6 14.30 TRUE
6 Vannes vs. Montpellier Feb 23 37 – 24 -2.30 FALSE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 24 22 – 18 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 02 Lyon 1.10
2 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Mar 02 Montpellier 7.90
3 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Mar 02 Racing 92 6.60
4 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 02 Stade Francais 3.80
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Vannes Mar 02 Stade Toulousain 24.20
6 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 Bordeaux Begles -2.20
7 Bayonne vs. Clermont Mar 03 Bayonne 6.30

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

By

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Blues 13.41 14.92 -1.50
Chiefs 12.86 11.43 1.40
Hurricanes 9.81 10.97 -1.20
Crusaders 8.71 8.99 -0.30
Brumbies 4.99 6.19 -1.20
Reds 1.61 1.35 0.30
Highlanders -1.68 -2.50 0.80
Waratahs -5.19 -5.17 -0.00
Western Force -6.04 -6.41 0.40
Fijian Drua -6.80 -7.98 1.20
Moana Pasifika -11.15 -11.25 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 21 49 – 24 6.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 21 56 – 36 16.20 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Fijian Drua Feb 22 38 – 34 22.00 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 22 29 – 21 -13.20 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Western Force Feb 22 42 – 45 16.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Feb 28 Highlanders -6.00
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 28 Waratahs 5.10
3 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 01 Chiefs 11.90
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 01 Blues -0.10
5 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 01 Reds -4.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.29 9.29 -0.00
Panthers 8.50 8.50 -0.00
Roosters 7.44 7.44 -0.00
Sharks 5.10 5.10 0.00
Cowboys 4.11 4.11 -0.00
Sea Eagles 2.97 2.97 -0.00
Bulldogs 0.07 0.07 -0.00
Knights -0.05 -0.05 -0.00
Warriors -1.68 -1.68 -0.00
Broncos -1.82 -1.82 -0.00
Dolphins -1.96 -1.96 -0.00
Eels -3.02 -3.02 -0.00
Raiders -3.61 -3.61 -0.00
Rabbitohs -4.35 -4.35 -0.00
Dragons -4.55 -4.55 0.00
Titans -5.50 -5.50 -0.00
Wests Tigers -10.97 -10.97 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 02 Warriors -1.90
2 Panthers vs. Sharks Mar 02 Panthers 3.40
3 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 06 Roosters 12.30
4 Wests Tigers vs. Knights Mar 07 Knights -7.90
5 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Mar 07 Dolphins 5.40
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Mar 08 Bulldogs -1.60
7 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Mar 08 Sea Eagles 1.90
8 Storm vs. Eels Mar 09 Storm 15.30

 

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