Posts written by David Scott (1539)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

December 27, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.65 6.34 1.30
La Rochelle 5.96 6.88 -0.90
Montpellier 5.04 4.18 0.90
Racing 92 4.64 4.86 -0.20
Toulon 4.11 4.09 0.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.00 5.27 -1.30
Stade Francais 3.55 -1.05 4.60
Clermont 2.35 4.05 -1.70
Castres Olympique 1.86 2.87 -1.00
Lyon 1.61 3.10 -1.50
Section Paloise -0.78 -2.12 1.30
Aviron Bayonnais -1.71 -4.26 2.50
USA Perpignan -4.94 -2.75 -2.20
Brive -6.08 -4.20 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Toulon vs. Lyon Dec 23 21 – 3 8.00 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Clermont Dec 24 20 – 16 -2.60 FALSE
3 La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 24 8 – 12 9.40 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Dec 24 38 – 10 15.60 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais Dec 24 22 – 22 8.30 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Dec 24 22 – 18 13.20 TRUE
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Dec 25 10 – 48 10.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Dec 31 Bordeaux Begles 5.50
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Toulon Jan 01 Aviron Bayonnais 0.70
3 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Jan 01 Castres Olympique 3.70
4 Lyon vs. Brive Jan 01 Lyon 14.20
5 Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise Jan 01 Stade Francais 10.80
6 USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle Jan 01 La Rochelle -4.40
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 02 Clermont 1.20

 

December 6, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

By

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.71 16.79 0.90
Ulster 10.04 9.27 0.80
Bulls 8.62 7.84 0.80
Munster 7.56 9.78 -2.20
Stormers 6.88 7.14 -0.30
Sharks 4.49 6.95 -2.50
Edinburgh 3.99 3.58 0.40
Connacht 0.92 -1.60 2.50
Glasgow 0.49 -0.00 0.50
Lions -0.91 -1.74 0.80
Ospreys -2.63 -0.83 -1.80
Scarlets -4.67 -1.23 -3.40
Benetton -5.28 -3.68 -1.60
Cardiff Rugby -5.42 -7.42 2.00
Dragons -8.98 -11.81 2.80
Zebre -16.78 -16.99 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 69 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Ospreys Dec 03 25 – 10 10.80 TRUE
2 Edinburgh vs. Munster Dec 03 17 – 38 2.80 FALSE
3 Stormers vs. Dragons Dec 04 34 – 26 21.60 TRUE
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Dec 04 17 – 45 -11.30 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Benetton Dec 04 38 – 19 9.70 TRUE
6 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 04 45 – 9 17.00 TRUE
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 04 38 – 29 12.30 TRUE
8 Lions vs. Scarlets Dec 05 32 – 15 7.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Dec 24 Sharks 9.40
2 Stormers vs. Bulls Dec 24 Stormers 2.30
3 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 24 Ulster -5.10
4 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 24 Glasgow 0.50
5 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 25 Benetton 15.50
6 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 27 Dragons 0.40
7 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 27 Ospreys 6.00
8 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 Leinster -6.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.11 6.34 1.80
La Rochelle 6.41 6.88 -0.50
Racing 92 5.99 4.86 1.10
Montpellier 4.61 4.18 0.40
Toulon 3.61 4.09 -0.50
Bordeaux Begles 3.55 5.27 -1.70
Clermont 2.68 4.05 -1.40
Stade Francais 2.20 -1.05 3.30
Lyon 2.11 3.10 -1.00
Castres Olympique 1.40 2.87 -1.50
Section Paloise -0.37 -2.12 1.80
Aviron Bayonnais -2.12 -4.26 2.10
USA Perpignan -4.51 -2.75 -1.80
Brive -6.40 -4.20 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Dec 04 19 – 7 1.50 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Brive Dec 04 33 – 13 16.10 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Dec 04 19 – 14 4.50 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. La Rochelle Dec 04 27 – 14 1.50 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Dec 04 34 – 13 18.90 TRUE
6 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Dec 05 26 – 22 8.70 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Dec 05 14 – 31 5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Lyon Dec 23 Toulon 8.00
2 Brive vs. Clermont Dec 24 Clermont -2.60
3 La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 24 La Rochelle 9.40
4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Dec 24 Montpellier 15.60
5 Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais Dec 24 Section Paloise 8.30
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Dec 24 Stade Toulousain 13.20
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Dec 25 Racing 92 10.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 4.83 7.93 -3.10
Sale Sharks 4.43 4.14 0.30
Harlequins 3.91 3.92 -0.00
Gloucester 3.52 5.92 -2.40
Exeter Chiefs 2.74 3.67 -0.90
Northampton Saints 1.32 3.99 -2.70
Saracens 1.10 -5.00 6.10
London Irish -0.15 -1.65 1.50
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -4.00 -2.43 -1.60
Bath -6.30 -9.15 2.80
Newcastle Falcons -8.46 -8.76 0.30
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 57 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Dec 03 13 – 19 -5.70 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 04 26 – 26 -5.00 FALSE
3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Dec 04 34 – 19 5.60 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 04 39 – 17 11.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 London Irish vs. Saracens Dec 24 London Irish 3.30
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Dec 24 Sale Sharks -8.40
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Dec 25 Exeter Chiefs 13.50
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Dec 25 Leicester Tigers 5.80
5 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 28 Harlequins 12.40

 

November 29, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

By

Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.05 16.79 1.30
Ulster 9.71 9.27 0.40
Bulls 7.83 7.84 -0.00
Stormers 7.50 7.14 0.40
Munster 6.64 9.78 -3.10
Edinburgh 4.91 3.58 1.30
Sharks 4.06 6.95 -2.90
Connacht 0.44 -1.60 2.00
Glasgow -0.23 -0.00 -0.20
Lions -1.40 -1.74 0.30
Ospreys -2.21 -0.83 -1.40
Scarlets -4.18 -1.23 -2.90
Cardiff Rugby -4.63 -7.42 2.80
Benetton -4.80 -3.68 -1.10
Dragons -9.60 -11.81 2.20
Zebre -16.06 -16.99 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 61 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Scarlets Nov 26 36 – 19 16.00 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 26 36 – 15 31.30 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Nov 26 24 – 17 -6.40 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Nov 26 43 – 26 13.90 TRUE
5 Leinster vs. Glasgow Nov 27 40 – 5 21.50 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Connacht Nov 27 24 – 17 11.00 TRUE
7 Lions vs. Dragons Nov 28 33 – 25 13.90 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 28 0 – 35 16.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Ospreys Dec 03 Sharks 10.80
2 Edinburgh vs. Munster Dec 03 Edinburgh 2.80
3 Stormers vs. Dragons Dec 04 Stormers 21.60
4 Zebre vs. Glasgow Dec 04 Glasgow -11.30
5 Connacht vs. Benetton Dec 04 Connacht 9.70
6 Bulls vs. Cardiff Rugby Dec 04 Bulls 17.00
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 04 Leinster 12.30
8 Lions vs. Scarlets Dec 05 Lions 7.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.01 6.34 1.70
La Rochelle 6.81 6.88 -0.10
Racing 92 5.28 4.86 0.40
Montpellier 4.64 4.18 0.50
Toulon 4.32 4.09 0.20
Bordeaux Begles 3.36 5.27 -1.90
Clermont 2.65 4.05 -1.40
Lyon 2.48 3.10 -0.60
Stade Francais 1.80 -1.05 2.90
Castres Olympique 1.63 2.87 -1.20
Section Paloise -0.61 -2.12 1.50
Aviron Bayonnais -2.49 -4.26 1.80
USA Perpignan -4.41 -2.75 -1.70
Brive -6.21 -4.20 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 La Rochelle vs. Castres Olympique Nov 27 53 – 7 9.60 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 27 35 – 14 12.80 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. Brive Nov 27 22 – 6 11.70 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Nov 27 12 – 17 5.00 FALSE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 27 23 – 20 -1.70 FALSE
6 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 28 21 – 14 0.30 TRUE
7 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Nov 28 46 – 12 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Lyon Dec 04 Aviron Bayonnais 1.50
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Brive Dec 04 Bordeaux Begles 16.10
3 Clermont vs. Montpellier Dec 04 Clermont 4.50
4 Stade Francais vs. La Rochelle Dec 04 Stade Francais 1.50
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Dec 04 Stade Toulousain 18.90
6 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Dec 05 Castres Olympique 8.70
7 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Dec 05 Toulon 5.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.14 7.93 -2.80
Sale Sharks 4.43 4.14 0.30
Harlequins 3.88 3.92 -0.00
Gloucester 2.99 5.92 -2.90
Exeter Chiefs 2.74 3.67 -0.90
Northampton Saints 1.86 3.99 -2.10
Saracens 1.10 -5.00 6.10
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
London Irish -0.73 -1.65 0.90
Bristol -4.32 -2.43 -1.90
Bath -6.27 -9.15 2.90
Newcastle Falcons -7.88 -8.76 0.90
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 34 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Nov 26 21 – 12 4.90 TRUE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 26 24 – 21 -7.30 FALSE
3 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Nov 27 25 – 20 14.30 TRUE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Nov 28 33 – 31 11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Dec 03 Harlequins -5.70
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 04 Leicester Tigers -5.00
3 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Dec 04 Gloucester 5.60
4 London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 04 London Irish 11.60

 

November 15, 2022

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.68 7.93 -2.20
Sale Sharks 4.96 4.14 0.80
Harlequins 3.62 3.92 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 3.31 3.67 -0.40
Gloucester 3.25 5.92 -2.70
Northampton Saints 1.86 3.99 -2.10
Saracens 1.10 -5.00 6.10
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
London Irish -1.27 -1.65 0.40
Bristol -4.85 -2.43 -2.40
Bath -6.27 -9.15 2.90
Newcastle Falcons -8.46 -8.76 0.30
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 12 19 – 18 -8.50 FALSE
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 13 21 – 27 18.70 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Nov 13 22 – 17 9.70 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Nov 14 45 – 39 3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Nov 26 Harlequins 4.90
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 26 Exeter Chiefs -7.30
3 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Nov 27 Sale Sharks 14.30
4 Leicester Tigers vs. London Irish Nov 28 Leicester Tigers 11.50

 

November 8, 2022

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8

By

Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.43 16.79 0.60
Ulster 10.22 9.27 1.00
Bulls 7.52 7.84 -0.30
Stormers 7.40 7.14 0.30
Munster 7.04 9.78 -2.70
Sharks 5.64 6.95 -1.30
Edinburgh 5.52 3.58 1.90
Glasgow 0.39 -0.00 0.40
Connacht 0.04 -1.60 1.60
Lions -0.81 -1.74 0.90
Ospreys -1.90 -0.83 -1.10
Scarlets -4.08 -1.23 -2.80
Benetton -5.42 -3.68 -1.70
Cardiff Rugby -6.20 -7.42 1.20
Dragons -10.19 -11.81 1.60
Zebre -16.57 -16.99 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Benetton Oct 29 37 – 0 8.20 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Leinster Oct 29 5 – 35 -15.70 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Stormers Oct 30 22 – 31 -3.00 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Zebre Oct 30 47 – 7 8.70 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Ulster Oct 30 14 – 15 1.30 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Connacht Oct 30 19 – 22 3.90 FALSE
7 Bulls vs. Sharks Oct 31 40 – 27 5.00 TRUE
8 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Oct 31 17 – 25 -7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Scarlets Nov 26 Stormers 16.00
2 Ulster vs. Zebre Nov 26 Ulster 31.30
3 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Nov 26 Edinburgh -6.40
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Nov 26 Bulls 13.90
5 Leinster vs. Glasgow Nov 27 Leinster 21.50
6 Munster vs. Connacht Nov 27 Munster 11.00
7 Lions vs. Dragons Nov 28 Lions 13.90
8 Sharks vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 28 Sharks 16.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.34 6.34 2.00
La Rochelle 5.75 6.88 -1.10
Racing 92 4.47 4.86 -0.40
Montpellier 4.23 4.18 0.00
Toulon 3.82 4.09 -0.30
Bordeaux Begles 3.59 5.27 -1.70
Clermont 3.46 4.05 -0.60
Castres Olympique 2.70 2.87 -0.20
Stade Francais 2.30 -1.05 3.40
Lyon 2.14 3.10 -1.00
Section Paloise -0.82 -2.12 1.30
Aviron Bayonnais -2.08 -4.26 2.20
USA Perpignan -4.65 -2.75 -1.90
Brive -5.99 -4.20 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. La Rochelle Nov 06 17 – 19 -5.60 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 06 20 – 25 13.20 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Castres Olympique Nov 06 26 – 20 5.90 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Nov 06 44 – 20 14.70 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Nov 06 16 – 16 13.50 FALSE
6 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 07 33 – 7 0.50 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. Montpellier Nov 07 16 – 26 7.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Castres Olympique Nov 27 La Rochelle 9.60
2 Montpellier vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 27 Montpellier 12.80
3 Section Paloise vs. Brive Nov 27 Section Paloise 11.70
4 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Nov 27 Stade Francais 5.00
5 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 27 Bordeaux Begles -1.70
6 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 28 Lyon 0.30
7 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Nov 28 Racing 92 7.50

 

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