Top 14 Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.65 | 6.34 | 1.30 |
| La Rochelle | 5.96 | 6.88 | -0.90 |
| Montpellier | 5.04 | 4.18 | 0.90 |
| Racing 92 | 4.64 | 4.86 | -0.20 |
| Toulon | 4.11 | 4.09 | 0.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.00 | 5.27 | -1.30 |
| Stade Francais | 3.55 | -1.05 | 4.60 |
| Clermont | 2.35 | 4.05 | -1.70 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.86 | 2.87 | -1.00 |
| Lyon | 1.61 | 3.10 | -1.50 |
| Section Paloise | -0.78 | -2.12 | 1.30 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -1.71 | -4.26 | 2.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.94 | -2.75 | -2.20 |
| Brive | -6.08 | -4.20 | -1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 91 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toulon vs. Lyon | Dec 23 | 21 – 3 | 8.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brive vs. Clermont | Dec 24 | 20 – 16 | -2.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux Begles | Dec 24 | 8 – 12 | 9.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 24 | 38 – 10 | 15.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Dec 24 | 22 – 22 | 8.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique | Dec 24 | 22 – 18 | 13.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais | Dec 25 | 10 – 48 | 10.30 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier | Dec 31 | Bordeaux Begles | 5.50 |
| 2 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Toulon | Jan 01 | Aviron Bayonnais | 0.70 |
| 3 | Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 | Jan 01 | Castres Olympique | 3.70 |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Brive | Jan 01 | Lyon | 14.20 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Section Paloise | Jan 01 | Stade Francais | 10.80 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle | Jan 01 | La Rochelle | -4.40 |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 02 | Clermont | 1.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »