Posts written by David Scott (1661)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 23, 2025

AFL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 30.57 15.04 15.50
Western Bulldogs 25.54 18.20 7.30
Hawthorn Hawks 23.30 21.95 1.30
Brisbane Lions 21.89 22.65 -0.80
Adelaide Crows 14.77 2.69 12.10
Collingwood 11.15 5.39 5.80
Gold Coast Suns 10.16 -6.41 16.60
GWS Giants 9.94 9.08 0.90
Fremantle Dockers 6.56 5.99 0.60
Sydney Swans 1.16 12.60 -11.40
Melbourne Demons 0.76 -0.21 1.00
Carlton Blues -4.46 5.01 -9.50
St Kilda Saints -6.98 0.89 -7.90
Port Adelaide Power -12.97 7.63 -20.60
North Melbourne -23.62 -37.08 13.50
Essendon Bombers -27.28 -10.15 -17.10
Richmond Tigers -31.46 -31.00 -0.50
West Coast Eagles -41.44 -34.67 -6.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 215 matches played, 147 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 19 115 – 85 -9.20 FALSE
2 Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 20 71 – 100 5.10 FALSE

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 27 Geelong Cats 8.70
September 16, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.71 11.56 0.10
Bordeaux Begles 3.95 4.78 -0.80
Toulon 3.58 3.49 0.10
Section Paloise 3.09 2.21 0.90
Stade Rochelais 1.95 1.22 0.70
Racing 92 1.73 1.88 -0.20
Bayonne 1.63 1.48 0.20
Clermont 1.05 1.88 -0.80
Castres Olympique 0.55 0.59 -0.00
Lyon 0.40 -0.45 0.80
Montpellier -0.31 -0.21 -0.10
Stade Francais -2.12 -2.17 0.10
USA Perpignan -3.63 -3.37 -0.30
Montauban -10.69 -10.00 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Montauban vs. Lyon Sept 14 18 – 25 -4.30 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Sept 14 26 – 23 9.20 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Sept 14 34 – 10 10.80 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Sept 14 34 – 16 6.50 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Sept 14 31 – 13 22.40 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Sept 14 16 – 12 10.30 TRUE
7 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 15 44 – 32 3.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Sept 21 Clermont 4.50
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montauban Sept 21 Bordeaux Begles 21.10
3 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Sept 21 Castres Olympique 5.40
4 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Sept 21 Lyon 9.00
5 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Sept 21 USA Perpignan 1.10
6 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 21 Stade Toulousain -5.50
7 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Sept 22 Toulon 8.10

 

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.07 9.29 -1.20
Roosters 8.04 7.44 0.60
Panthers 7.21 8.50 -1.30
Sharks 5.86 5.10 0.80
Broncos 4.33 -1.82 6.10
Bulldogs 3.05 0.07 3.00
Raiders 1.76 -3.61 5.40
Dolphins 1.52 -1.96 3.50
Sea Eagles 1.02 2.97 -2.00
Warriors -1.33 -1.68 0.30
Cowboys -1.69 4.11 -5.80
Eels -1.79 -3.02 1.20
Rabbitohs -5.19 -4.35 -0.80
Dragons -5.45 -4.55 -0.90
Titans -7.67 -5.50 -2.20
Wests Tigers -7.73 -10.97 3.20
Knights -10.01 -0.05 -10.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 208 matches played, 131 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Bulldogs Sept 12 26 – 18 8.00 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Sept 13 8 – 24 -3.90 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Roosters Sept 13 20 – 10 -0.20 FALSE
4 Raiders vs. Broncos Sept 14 28 – 29 0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Sharks Sept 20 Sharks -1.10
2 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Sept 21 Panthers -1.20

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 9.65 4.02 5.60
Taranaki 8.13 5.30 2.80
Bay of Plenty 7.41 6.48 0.90
Hawke’s Bay 4.64 0.68 4.00
Tasman 2.32 3.49 -1.20
Wellington 1.39 6.60 -5.20
Auckland 1.37 -0.04 1.40
Otago 1.08 -1.15 2.20
Counties Manukau 0.90 -0.26 1.20
Waikato -0.67 5.46 -6.10
North Harbour -1.76 1.50 -3.30
Northland -7.85 -6.54 -1.30
Southland -8.21 -5.90 -2.30
Manawatu -12.23 -13.45 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Wellington Sept 11 43 – 26 -9.60 FALSE
2 Waikato vs. North Harbour Sept 12 29 – 28 5.10 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sept 13 21 – 24 7.30 FALSE
4 Otago vs. Taranaki Sept 13 28 – 26 -6.00 FALSE
5 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sept 14 52 – 29 14.60 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Sept 14 31 – 25 11.70 TRUE
7 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sept 14 10 – 64 -0.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Hawke’s Bay Sept 19 Taranaki 6.50
2 Counties Manukau vs. Auckland Sept 20 Counties Manukau 2.50
3 Wellington vs. Southland Sept 20 Wellington 12.60
4 Canterbury vs. Otago Sept 20 Canterbury 11.60
5 Tasman vs. Waikato Sept 20 Tasman 6.00
6 North Harbour vs. Northland Sept 21 North Harbour 9.10
7 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sept 21 Bay of Plenty -16.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 13.60 10.01 3.60
Griquas 3.64 -2.85 6.50
Bulls 2.01 5.94 -3.90
Cheetahs 1.04 4.33 -3.30
Pumas 0.52 -4.16 4.70
Sharks -0.60 6.68 -7.30
Western Province -5.26 -1.94 -3.30
Boland Cavaliers -6.95 -10.00 3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Boland Cavaliers Sept 13 67 – 19 20.00 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Sept 13 25 – 5 3.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Sept 20 Lions 13.50

 

AFL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 27.86 15.04 12.80
Hawthorn Hawks 26.01 21.95 4.10
Western Bulldogs 25.54 18.20 7.30
Brisbane Lions 19.48 22.65 -3.20
Adelaide Crows 14.77 2.69 12.10
Collingwood 13.55 5.39 8.20
Gold Coast Suns 10.16 -6.41 16.60
GWS Giants 9.94 9.08 0.90
Fremantle Dockers 6.56 5.99 0.60
Sydney Swans 1.16 12.60 -11.40
Melbourne Demons 0.76 -0.21 1.00
Carlton Blues -4.46 5.01 -9.50
St Kilda Saints -6.98 0.89 -7.90
Port Adelaide Power -12.97 7.63 -20.60
North Melbourne -23.62 -37.08 13.50
Essendon Bombers -27.28 -10.15 -17.10
Richmond Tigers -31.46 -31.00 -0.50
West Coast Eagles -41.44 -34.67 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 213 matches played, 147 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 12 67 – 101 5.20 FALSE
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns Sept 13 100 – 47 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 19 Hawthorn Hawks -9.20
2 Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 20 Collingwood 5.10

 

September 9, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.97 11.56 0.40
Bordeaux Begles 4.48 4.78 -0.30
Toulon 3.95 3.49 0.50
Section Paloise 2.62 2.21 0.40
Bayonne 2.00 1.48 0.50
Stade Rochelais 1.52 1.22 0.30
Clermont 1.48 1.88 -0.40
Racing 92 1.20 1.88 -0.70
Lyon 0.23 -0.45 0.70
Castres Olympique 0.18 0.59 -0.40
Montpellier -0.68 -0.21 -0.50
Stade Francais -1.65 -2.17 0.50
USA Perpignan -3.89 -3.37 -0.50
Montauban -10.52 -10.00 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais vs. Montauban Sept 06 47 – 24 14.30 TRUE
2 USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne Sept 07 19 – 26 1.60 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise Sept 07 15 – 17 4.90 FALSE
4 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Sept 07 32 – 7 4.20 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. Toulon Sept 07 17 – 27 2.80 FALSE
6 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais Sept 07 23 – 18 10.10 TRUE
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 08 24 – 34 -3.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Montauban vs. Lyon Sept 14 Lyon -4.30
2 Bayonne vs. Montpellier Sept 14 Bayonne 9.20
3 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Sept 14 Section Paloise 10.80
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Sept 14 Stade Rochelais 6.50
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Sept 14 Stade Toulousain 22.40
6 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Sept 14 Toulon 10.30
7 Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 15 Racing 92 3.20

 

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.56 7.44 1.10
Storm 8.07 9.29 -1.20
Panthers 6.62 8.50 -1.90
Sharks 5.34 5.10 0.20
Broncos 4.19 -1.82 6.00
Bulldogs 3.05 0.07 3.00
Raiders 1.90 -3.61 5.50
Dolphins 1.52 -1.96 3.50
Sea Eagles 1.02 2.97 -2.00
Warriors -0.74 -1.68 0.90
Cowboys -1.69 4.11 -5.80
Eels -1.79 -3.02 1.20
Rabbitohs -5.19 -4.35 -0.80
Dragons -5.45 -4.55 -0.90
Titans -7.67 -5.50 -2.20
Wests Tigers -7.73 -10.97 3.20
Knights -10.01 -0.05 -10.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 204 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sept 04 30 – 14 -2.50 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Sept 05 27 – 26 5.80 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Sept 05 36 – 6 15.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Panthers Sept 06 20 – 40 -7.90 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Sept 06 36 – 28 2.40 TRUE
6 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Sept 06 6 – 24 2.50 FALSE
7 Dolphins vs. Raiders Sept 07 62 – 24 -0.30 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Knights Sept 07 66 – 10 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Bulldogs Sept 12 Storm 8.00
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Sept 13 Panthers -3.90
3 Sharks vs. Roosters Sept 13 Roosters -0.20
4 Raiders vs. Broncos Sept 14 Raiders 0.70

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 7

By

Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.33 4.02 6.30
Taranaki 9.08 5.30 3.80
Bay of Plenty 8.19 6.48 1.70
Hawke’s Bay 3.87 0.68 3.20
Wellington 3.05 6.60 -3.50
Tasman 1.63 3.49 -1.90
Auckland 0.35 -0.04 0.40
Otago 0.12 -1.15 1.30
Waikato -0.18 5.46 -5.60
Counties Manukau -2.01 -0.26 -1.70
North Harbour -2.24 1.50 -3.70
Southland -5.31 -5.90 0.60
Northland -9.51 -6.54 -3.00
Manawatu -11.22 -13.45 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Sept 04 22 – 19 3.30 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Northland Sept 05 29 – 10 10.60 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Sept 06 45 – 19 0.60 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Waikato Sept 06 36 – 26 -10.80 FALSE
5 Southland vs. Canterbury Sept 06 14 – 54 -8.90 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Bay of Plenty Sept 07 17 – 43 7.90 FALSE
7 Tasman vs. Auckland Sept 07 21 – 29 6.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Wellington Sept 11 Wellington -9.60
2 Waikato vs. North Harbour Sept 12 Waikato 5.10
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sept 13 Bay of Plenty 7.30
4 Otago vs. Taranaki Sept 13 Taranaki -6.00
5 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sept 14 Auckland 14.60
6 Canterbury vs. Tasman Sept 14 Canterbury 11.70
7 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sept 14 Counties Manukau -0.30

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 11.59 10.01 1.60
Cheetahs 2.36 4.33 -2.00
Griquas 2.32 -2.85 5.20
Bulls 2.01 5.94 -3.90
Pumas 0.52 -4.16 4.70
Sharks -0.60 6.68 -7.30
Boland Cavaliers -4.93 -10.00 5.10
Western Province -5.26 -1.94 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Sept 06 19 – 13 1.00 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Boland Cavaliers Sept 07 40 – 22 0.40 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Griquas Sept 07 37 – 7 9.60 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Sept 07 35 – 31 2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Boland Cavaliers Sept 13 Lions 20.00
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Sept 13 Griquas 3.50

 

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