Posts written by David Scott (1643)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 26, 2025

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 7.80 10.01 -2.20
Cheetahs 5.05 4.33 0.70
Bulls 4.07 5.94 -1.90
Griquas 1.36 -2.85 4.20
Sharks -0.58 6.68 -7.30
Pumas -0.63 -4.16 3.50
Boland Cavaliers -4.27 -10.00 5.70
Western Province -4.79 -1.94 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 23 26 – 29 9.20 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Western Province Aug 23 29 – 21 7.60 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 24 47 – 31 -2.10 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 25 21 – 42 10.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 30 Cheetahs 7.20
2 Lions vs. Bulls Aug 31 Lions 7.20
3 Sharks vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 31 Sharks 7.20
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Aug 31 Pumas -0.70

 

August 19, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.62 9.29 1.30
Roosters 7.65 7.44 0.20
Panthers 7.54 8.50 -1.00
Sharks 3.97 5.10 -1.10
Raiders 2.91 -3.61 6.50
Bulldogs 2.59 0.07 2.50
Broncos 1.83 -1.82 3.60
Dolphins 1.48 -1.96 3.40
Sea Eagles -0.48 2.97 -3.50
Warriors -1.00 -1.68 0.70
Cowboys -1.60 4.11 -5.70
Dragons -2.66 -4.55 1.90
Eels -5.33 -3.02 -2.30
Rabbitohs -6.05 -4.35 -1.70
Knights -6.59 -0.05 -6.50
Wests Tigers -7.12 -10.97 3.80
Titans -7.77 -5.50 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 14 18 – 22 0.40 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 15 14 – 10 5.40 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 32 – 12 6.80 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 16 54 – 22 13.10 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Dolphins Aug 16 38 – 28 2.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Aug 16 20 – 16 -1.30 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 17 26 – 12 -8.60 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Knights Aug 17 38 – 4 5.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Aug 21 Dragons -0.40
2 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 22 Panthers 4.60
3 Storm vs. Bulldogs Aug 22 Storm 11.00
4 Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins Aug 23 Sea Eagles 1.00
5 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 23 Warriors -3.30
6 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 23 Roosters -10.00
7 Knights vs. Broncos Aug 24 Broncos -5.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 24 Cowboys -2.50

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4

By

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Taranaki 9.41 5.30 4.10
Bay of Plenty 7.38 6.48 0.90
Canterbury 6.35 4.02 2.30
Wellington 5.04 6.60 -1.60
Hawke’s Bay 4.24 0.68 3.60
Tasman 3.87 3.49 0.40
Waikato 3.56 5.46 -1.90
Otago 0.06 -1.15 1.20
Auckland -1.56 -0.04 -1.50
North Harbour -2.08 1.50 -3.60
Counties Manukau -2.39 -0.26 -2.10
Southland -7.28 -5.90 -1.40
Northland -7.72 -6.54 -1.20
Manawatu -12.71 -13.45 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Manawatu Aug 15 29 – 22 8.90 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Aug 16 7 – 21 6.70 FALSE
3 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 16 14 – 28 -6.90 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Taranaki Aug 16 8 – 50 -3.50 TRUE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 16 36 – 22 7.80 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Otago Aug 17 41 – 46 10.10 FALSE
7 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 17 27 – 26 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Aug 21 Bay of Plenty 17.70
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Aug 22 Hawke’s Bay 0.90
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Aug 23 Taranaki 8.80
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 23 Tasman -3.00
5 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 23 Auckland 9.20
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Aug 24 Otago 5.50
7 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 24 Wellington -14.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.22 10.01 -0.80
Bulls 6.29 5.94 0.30
Cheetahs 3.63 4.33 -0.70
Pumas 0.41 -4.16 4.60
Sharks -0.64 6.68 -7.30
Griquas -0.86 -2.85 2.00
Western Province -4.73 -1.94 -2.80
Boland Cavaliers -5.31 -10.00 4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Sharks Aug 16 26 – 17 1.00 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Lions Aug 16 35 – 36 -7.00 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 17 31 – 24 13.80 TRUE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Bulls Aug 18 28 – 20 -11.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 23 Pumas 9.20
2 Sharks vs. Western Province Aug 23 Sharks 7.60
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 24 Lions -2.10
4 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 25 Bulls 10.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 25

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Team Ratings for Week 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 28.93 18.20 10.70
Geelong Cats 27.09 15.04 12.10
Adelaide Crows 22.31 2.69 19.60
Hawthorn Hawks 22.18 21.95 0.20
Brisbane Lions 17.93 22.65 -4.70
GWS Giants 13.10 9.08 4.00
Collingwood 11.09 5.39 5.70
Gold Coast Suns 10.42 -6.41 16.80
Fremantle Dockers 4.00 5.99 -2.00
Melbourne Demons 0.17 -0.21 0.40
Sydney Swans -1.66 12.60 -14.30
Carlton Blues -5.81 5.01 -10.80
St Kilda Saints -8.63 0.89 -9.50
Port Adelaide Power -14.36 7.63 -22.00
Essendon Bombers -22.52 -10.15 -12.40
North Melbourne -25.39 -37.08 11.70
Richmond Tigers -32.63 -31.00 -1.60
West Coast Eagles -38.62 -34.67 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 197 matches played, 137 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 15 75 – 77 -16.20 TRUE
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 15 44 – 101 5.10 FALSE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants Aug 16 76 – 111 15.00 FALSE
4 Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 16 118 – 64 14.00 TRUE
5 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 16 92 – 56 19.40 TRUE
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Aug 16 59 – 56 25.60 TRUE
7 North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 17 135 – 87 5.40 TRUE
8 Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats Aug 17 68 – 111 -13.50 TRUE
9 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 17 126 – 32 75.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 25

Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Aug 21 Carlton Blues -16.70
2 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 22 Collingwood 10.90
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 23 Brisbane Lions 6.70
4 GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 23 GWS Giants 32.70
5 North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 23 Adelaide Crows -36.70
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 23 Gold Coast Suns -13.80
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Geelong Cats Aug 23 Geelong Cats -48.70
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Aug 23 Sydney Swans -26.00
9 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 23 Western Bulldogs 35.90
10 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 27 Gold Coast Suns 43.90

 

August 12, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.36 9.29 1.10
Panthers 7.80 8.50 -0.70
Roosters 7.02 7.44 -0.40
Bulldogs 3.22 0.07 3.10
Sharks 3.13 5.10 -2.00
Raiders 2.91 -3.61 6.50
Dolphins 1.88 -1.96 3.80
Broncos 1.43 -1.82 3.20
Sea Eagles 0.49 2.97 -2.50
Warriors -0.89 -1.68 0.80
Cowboys -2.76 4.11 -6.90
Dragons -2.77 -4.55 1.80
Eels -5.03 -3.02 -2.00
Knights -5.43 -0.05 -5.40
Rabbitohs -6.35 -4.35 -2.00
Titans -6.93 -5.50 -1.40
Wests Tigers -8.08 -10.97 2.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 172 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos Aug 07 22 – 2 11.00 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Panthers Aug 08 12 – 48 -7.90 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 08 28 – 12 4.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 09 22 – 14 -4.10 FALSE
5 Dolphins vs. Roosters Aug 09 12 – 64 1.70 FALSE
6 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 09 32 – 14 6.50 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 10 18 – 20 3.00 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Cowboys Aug 10 19 – 18 0.70 TRUE

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 14 Panthers 0.40
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 15 Warriors 5.40
3 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 Roosters 6.80
4 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 16 Sharks 13.10
5 Broncos vs. Dolphins Aug 16 Broncos 2.50
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Aug 16 Eels -1.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 17 Sea Eagles -8.60
8 Cowboys vs. Knights Aug 17 Cowboys 5.70
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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bay of Plenty 8.74 6.48 2.30
Taranaki 7.18 5.30 1.90
Wellington 6.09 6.60 -0.50
Canterbury 4.99 4.02 1.00
Waikato 4.28 5.46 -1.20
Hawke’s Bay 3.50 0.68 2.80
Tasman 3.02 3.49 -0.50
Auckland 0.66 -0.04 0.70
Otago -0.99 -1.15 0.20
North Harbour -1.34 1.50 -2.80
Counties Manukau -3.11 -0.26 -2.80
Northland -6.87 -6.54 -0.30
Southland -7.06 -5.90 -1.20
Manawatu -12.93 -13.45 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Southland Aug 08 22 – 17 2.60 TRUE
2 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Aug 09 24 – 46 -3.00 TRUE
3 Waikato vs. Wellington Aug 09 24 – 35 3.20 FALSE
4 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 09 49 – 17 16.80 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 09 19 – 15 8.40 TRUE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 10 22 – 39 -7.40 TRUE
7 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 10 21 – 27 -0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Manawatu Aug 15 Southland 8.90
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Aug 16 Bay of Plenty 6.70
3 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 16 Tasman -6.90
4 Auckland vs. Taranaki Aug 16 Taranaki -3.50
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 16 Hawke’s Bay 7.80
6 Wellington vs. Otago Aug 17 Wellington 10.10
7 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 17 Waikato 10.40

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 10.06 10.01 0.00
Bulls 7.77 5.94 1.80
Cheetahs 4.58 4.33 0.20
Sharks 0.47 6.68 -6.20
Pumas -0.43 -4.16 3.70
Griquas -1.98 -2.85 0.90
Western Province -5.68 -1.94 -3.70
Boland Cavaliers -6.79 -10.00 3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Western Province Aug 09 47 – 17 3.30 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Aug 10 7 – 41 18.30 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Aug 10 5 – 7 -0.10 TRUE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Lions Aug 11 29 – 10 -18.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Sharks Aug 16 Griquas 1.00
2 Pumas vs. Lions Aug 16 Lions -7.00
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 17 Cheetahs 13.80
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Bulls Aug 18 Bulls -11.10

 

AFL Predictions for Week 24

By

Team Ratings for Week 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 27.52 18.20 9.30
Geelong Cats 24.96 15.04 9.90
Adelaide Crows 24.01 2.69 21.30
Hawthorn Hawks 20.87 21.95 -1.10
Brisbane Lions 13.92 22.65 -8.70
Gold Coast Suns 13.75 -6.41 20.20
GWS Giants 9.76 9.08 0.70
Collingwood 9.39 5.39 4.00
Fremantle Dockers 8.02 5.99 2.00
Melbourne Demons 1.48 -0.21 1.70
Sydney Swans 0.47 12.60 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -7.48 0.89 -8.40
Carlton Blues -8.57 5.01 -13.60
Port Adelaide Power -11.60 7.63 -19.20
Essendon Bombers -23.67 -10.15 -13.50
North Melbourne -28.30 -37.08 8.80
Richmond Tigers -29.72 -31.00 1.30
West Coast Eagles -37.20 -34.67 -2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 188 matches played, 130 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood Aug 07 110 – 46 3.70 TRUE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 08 109 – 65 62.50 TRUE
3 Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 09 52 – 56 -25.50 TRUE
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans Aug 09 90 – 92 28.90 FALSE
5 Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 09 74 – 93 -8.90 TRUE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 09 86 – 92 -9.40 TRUE
7 GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne Aug 10 133 – 79 47.50 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs Aug 10 99 – 105 -29.60 TRUE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 10 78 – 87 -56.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 24

Here are the predictions for Week 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 15 St Kilda Saints -16.20
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 15 Fremantle Dockers 5.10
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants Aug 16 Gold Coast Suns 15.00
4 Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 16 Carlton Blues 14.00
5 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 16 Hawthorn Hawks 19.40
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Aug 16 Adelaide Crows 25.60
7 North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 17 North Melbourne 5.40
8 Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats Aug 17 Geelong Cats -13.50
9 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 17 Western Bulldogs 75.70

 

August 5, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.89 9.29 0.60
Panthers 6.65 8.50 -1.90
Roosters 5.08 7.44 -2.40
Dolphins 3.82 -1.96 5.80
Sharks 3.72 5.10 -1.40
Bulldogs 2.66 0.07 2.60
Raiders 2.33 -3.61 5.90
Broncos 1.89 -1.82 3.70
Sea Eagles 1.06 2.97 -1.90
Warriors -0.33 -1.68 1.30
Cowboys -2.74 4.11 -6.90
Dragons -3.35 -4.55 1.20
Knights -4.27 -0.05 -4.20
Eels -5.05 -3.02 -2.00
Rabbitohs -6.64 -4.35 -2.30
Titans -6.64 -5.50 -1.10
Wests Tigers -8.08 -10.97 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Storm Jul 31 10 – 16 -12.70 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Dolphins Aug 01 18 – 20 -0.40 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Aug 01 60 – 14 8.60 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Panthers Aug 02 26 – 30 -11.10 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Raiders Aug 02 18 – 12 -3.70 FALSE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Roosters Aug 02 4 – 20 0.50 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Aug 03 28 – 14 -9.80 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Cowboys Aug 03 32 – 12 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Aug 07 Storm 11.00
2 Knights vs. Panthers Aug 08 Panthers -7.90
3 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 08 Raiders 4.30
4 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 09 Sharks -4.10
5 Dolphins vs. Roosters Aug 09 Dolphins 1.70
6 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 09 Bulldogs 6.50
7 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 10 Titans 3.00
8 Eels vs. Cowboys Aug 10 Eels 0.70

 

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