Posts written by David Scott (1793)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

July 14, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.21 8.77 4.40
Sharks 10.27 7.25 3.00
Warriors 8.19 -1.18 9.40
Roosters 6.25 9.50 -3.30
Sea Eagles 4.09 0.21 3.90
Dolphins 3.51 1.85 1.70
Rabbitohs 0.90 -5.05 6.00
Storm 0.37 6.96 -6.60
Cowboys -0.02 -2.69 2.70
Raiders -2.59 1.62 -4.20
Knights -3.22 -14.06 10.80
Bulldogs -4.59 2.13 -6.70
Broncos -4.88 7.06 -11.90
Titans -5.63 -8.02 2.40
Eels -5.94 -0.37 -5.60
Wests Tigers -9.46 -7.26 -2.20
Dragons -10.46 -6.72 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 140 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 10 6 – 32 -11.50 TRUE
2 Dolphins vs. Sharks Jul 11 0 – 66 5.50 FALSE
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 11 16 – 40 6.00 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 11 28 – 12 16.20 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 12 26 – 24 9.90 TRUE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 12 18 – 19 9.80 FALSE
7 Storm vs. Titans Jul 12 22 – 18 11.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 16 Panthers 22.10
2 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 17 Sharks 17.50
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 17 Roosters 9.90
4 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 Raiders 0.50
5 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 18 Warriors 22.70
6 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 18 Bulldogs 8.90
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jul 19 Sea Eagles -5.70
8 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Jul 19 Dolphins 7.50

 

AFL Predictions for Week 20

By

Team Ratings for Week 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 25.32 6.56 18.80
Geelong Cats 22.98 26.75 -3.80
Brisbane Lions 20.31 26.20 -5.90
Hawthorn Hawks 16.95 22.83 -5.90
Adelaide Crows 16.07 15.32 0.80
Sydney Swans 15.99 0.56 15.40
Melbourne Demons 8.27 1.64 6.60
GWS Giants 8.17 9.54 -1.40
Collingwood 4.09 11.76 -7.70
Western Bulldogs 3.54 26.06 -22.50
St Kilda Saints 1.11 -7.63 8.70
Gold Coast Suns -2.79 10.24 -13.00
Carlton Blues -5.01 -4.77 -0.20
Port Adelaide Power -5.43 -14.65 9.20
North Melbourne -15.06 -21.71 6.70
West Coast Eagles -30.35 -39.36 9.00
Richmond Tigers -35.87 -29.44 -6.40
Essendon Bombers -36.29 -27.89 -8.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 153 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Jul 09 111 – 73 17.10 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. North Melbourne Jul 10 89 – 85 21.90 TRUE
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 11 87 – 73 18.30 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats Jul 11 86 – 73 -6.90 FALSE
5 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 11 39 – 103 -14.60 TRUE
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 11 128 – 49 21.40 TRUE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 12 86 – 70 50.00 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 12 111 – 65 43.70 TRUE
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 12 149 – 59 63.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 20

Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 16 Geelong Cats 32.90
2 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 17 Sydney Swans 10.90
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 18 Fremantle Dockers -19.70
4 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 18 Melbourne Demons -23.30
5 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Jul 18 Collingwood 9.10
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 18 Brisbane Lions -39.70
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 19 Hawthorn Hawks -52.80
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 19 Gold Coast Suns 4.70
9 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants Jul 19 GWS Giants -33.50

 

July 7, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 19

By

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.21 8.77 4.40
Dolphins 7.66 1.85 5.80
Warriors 7.12 -1.18 8.30
Roosters 6.27 9.50 -3.20
Sharks 6.13 7.25 -1.10
Sea Eagles 4.92 0.21 4.70
Rabbitohs 1.77 -5.05 6.80
Storm 1.21 6.96 -5.70
Cowboys -0.85 -2.69 1.80
Bulldogs -2.61 2.13 -4.70
Knights -4.09 -14.06 10.00
Raiders -4.57 1.62 -6.20
Broncos -4.88 7.06 -11.90
Eels -5.97 -0.37 -5.60
Titans -6.47 -8.02 1.50
Wests Tigers -8.39 -7.26 -1.10
Dragons -10.46 -6.72 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 133 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 36 – 14 13.60 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 04 24 – 10 -0.20 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 16 – 28 -5.60 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jul 05 23 – 14 -9.50 FALSE
5 Knights vs. Dolphins Jul 05 13 – 12 -9.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Jul 10 Warriors -11.50
2 Dolphins vs. Sharks Jul 11 Dolphins 5.50
3 Bulldogs vs. Raiders Jul 11 Bulldogs 6.00
4 Roosters vs. Eels Jul 11 Roosters 16.20
5 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 12 Rabbitohs 9.90
6 Sea Eagles vs. Cowboys Jul 12 Sea Eagles 9.80
7 Storm vs. Titans Jul 12 Storm 11.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 19

By

Team Ratings for Week 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 24.53 26.75 -2.20
Fremantle Dockers 23.70 6.56 17.10
Brisbane Lions 18.29 26.20 -7.90
Sydney Swans 17.60 0.56 17.00
Hawthorn Hawks 13.29 22.83 -9.50
Adelaide Crows 11.83 15.32 -3.50
Melbourne Demons 8.06 1.64 6.40
GWS Giants 6.63 9.54 -2.90
Western Bulldogs 6.11 26.06 -19.90
Collingwood 5.49 11.76 -6.30
St Kilda Saints 1.49 -7.63 9.10
Gold Coast Suns 1.44 10.24 -8.80
Carlton Blues -1.35 -4.77 3.40
Port Adelaide Power -5.82 -14.65 8.80
North Melbourne -16.45 -21.71 5.30
West Coast Eagles -32.92 -39.36 6.40
Essendon Bombers -34.27 -27.89 -6.40
Richmond Tigers -35.66 -29.44 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 02 101 – 123 24.10 FALSE
2 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 03 90 – 55 20.20 TRUE
3 West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 03 74 – 99 -35.70 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 04 90 – 125 25.00 FALSE
5 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 04 109 – 88 -10.90 FALSE
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jul 04 98 – 104 9.40 FALSE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Jul 04 72 – 74 -40.00 TRUE
8 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 05 50 – 117 -30.20 TRUE
9 Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Jul 05 73 – 52 21.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 19

Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans Jul 09 Fremantle Dockers 17.10
2 Collingwood vs. North Melbourne Jul 10 Collingwood 21.90
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 11 St Kilda Saints 18.30
4 GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats Jul 11 Geelong Cats -6.90
5 Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 11 Hawthorn Hawks -14.60
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 11 Adelaide Crows 21.40
7 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 12 Western Bulldogs 50.00
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 12 Melbourne Demons 43.70
9 Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 12 Brisbane Lions 63.60

 

June 30, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.29 8.77 3.50
Dolphins 8.46 1.85 6.60
Warriors 7.12 -1.18 8.30
Roosters 6.27 9.50 -3.20
Sea Eagles 6.23 0.21 6.00
Sharks 5.42 7.25 -1.80
Rabbitohs 2.69 -5.05 7.70
Storm 1.21 6.96 -5.70
Cowboys -0.85 -2.69 1.80
Bulldogs -2.61 2.13 -4.70
Broncos -4.17 7.06 -11.20
Raiders -4.57 1.62 -6.20
Knights -4.89 -14.06 9.20
Titans -6.47 -8.02 1.50
Eels -7.28 -0.37 -6.90
Wests Tigers -7.34 -7.26 -0.10
Dragons -11.51 -6.72 -4.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 25 12 – 32 -3.60 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Bulldogs Jun 26 12 – 30 3.10 FALSE
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Jun 26 18 – 24 -6.60 TRUE
4 Dolphins vs. Warriors Jun 27 26 – 24 6.30 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 27 26 – 12 -12.70 FALSE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jun 27 30 – 4 6.20 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Jun 28 24 – 16 11.80 TRUE
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jun 28 12 – 6 6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 03 Panthers 13.60
2 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Jul 04 Wests Tigers -0.20
3 Broncos vs. Sharks Jul 04 Sharks -5.60
4 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jul 05 Sea Eagles -9.50
5 Knights vs. Dolphins Jul 05 Dolphins -9.40

 

AFL Predictions for Week 18

By

Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 27.95 26.75 1.20
Fremantle Dockers 26.12 6.56 19.60
Hawthorn Hawks 17.70 22.83 -5.10
Sydney Swans 16.44 0.56 15.90
Brisbane Lions 14.86 26.20 -11.30
Adelaide Crows 12.79 15.32 -2.50
Western Bulldogs 7.28 26.06 -18.80
Collingwood 4.28 11.76 -7.50
GWS Giants 4.22 9.54 -5.30
Melbourne Demons 3.66 1.64 2.00
Gold Coast Suns 2.65 10.24 -7.60
Carlton Blues 1.50 -4.77 6.30
St Kilda Saints -1.27 -7.63 6.40
Port Adelaide Power -5.75 -14.65 8.90
North Melbourne -17.89 -21.71 3.80
Essendon Bombers -30.14 -27.89 -2.20
West Coast Eagles -33.88 -39.36 5.50
Richmond Tigers -38.51 -29.44 -9.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans Jun 25 126 – 83 3.50 TRUE
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Jun 26 96 – 82 26.80 TRUE
3 Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 27 117 – 64 44.90 TRUE
4 Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 27 106 – 72 44.70 TRUE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 27 97 – 71 -26.30 FALSE
6 North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 28 79 – 65 11.90 TRUE
7 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 28 80 – 29 31.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 02 Geelong Cats 24.10
2 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 03 Sydney Swans 20.20
3 West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 03 Adelaide Crows -35.70
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 04 Hawthorn Hawks 25.00
5 GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 04 Fremantle Dockers -10.90
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood Jul 04 Gold Coast Suns 9.40
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues Jul 04 Carlton Blues -35.00
8 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 05 St Kilda Saints -23.90
9 Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne Jul 05 Port Adelaide Power 23.10

 

June 23, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.08 8.77 5.30
Dolphins 8.93 1.85 7.10
Warriors 6.65 -1.18 7.80
Roosters 6.34 9.50 -3.20
Sharks 5.42 7.25 -1.80
Sea Eagles 4.84 0.21 4.60
Storm 2.60 6.96 -4.40
Rabbitohs 1.51 -5.05 6.60
Cowboys -2.65 -2.69 0.00
Bulldogs -4.08 2.13 -6.20
Raiders -4.16 1.62 -5.80
Broncos -4.24 7.06 -11.30
Knights -4.82 -14.06 9.20
Titans -5.01 -8.02 3.00
Eels -6.10 -0.37 -5.70
Wests Tigers -7.41 -7.26 -0.20
Dragons -11.93 -6.72 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 19 22 – 20 12.80 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins Jun 20 22 – 36 -11.90 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Panthers Jun 20 19 – 18 -17.70 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 13 – 12 -6.60 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jun 21 38 – 20 12.00 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Raiders Jun 21 42 – 20 8.80 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Sharks Jun 21 27 – 8 2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 25 Rabbitohs -3.60
2 Titans vs. Bulldogs Jun 26 Titans 3.10
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Jun 26 Roosters -6.60
4 Dolphins vs. Warriors Jun 27 Dolphins 6.30
5 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 27 Panthers -12.70
6 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jun 27 Sea Eagles 6.20
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Jun 28 Raiders 11.80
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jun 28 Knights 6.60

 

AFL Predictions for Week 17

By

Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 27.95 26.75 1.20
Fremantle Dockers 24.60 6.56 18.00
Sydney Swans 19.39 0.56 18.80
Hawthorn Hawks 18.85 22.83 -4.00
Adelaide Crows 16.65 15.32 1.30
Brisbane Lions 11.90 26.20 -14.30
Western Bulldogs 7.28 26.06 -18.80
Collingwood 5.25 11.76 -6.50
Gold Coast Suns 4.17 10.24 -6.10
Melbourne Demons 3.66 1.64 2.00
GWS Giants 3.07 9.54 -6.50
Carlton Blues 0.77 -4.77 5.50
St Kilda Saints -1.27 -7.63 6.40
Port Adelaide Power -9.60 -14.65 5.00
North Melbourne -18.08 -21.71 3.60
Essendon Bombers -29.94 -27.89 -2.00
West Coast Eagles -33.15 -39.36 6.20
Richmond Tigers -39.48 -29.44 -10.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Jun 18 99 – 90 7.40 TRUE
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 19 97 – 113 -1.40 TRUE
3 Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 20 79 – 62 25.50 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues Jun 20 65 – 88 19.70 FALSE
5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 20 78 – 51 25.60 TRUE
6 Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne Jun 21 48 – 73 -20.60 TRUE
7 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 21 61 – 83 -6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans Jun 25 Brisbane Lions 3.50
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Jun 26 Hawthorn Hawks 26.80
3 Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 27 Carlton Blues 44.90
4 Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 27 Collingwood 44.70
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 27 Adelaide Crows -26.30
6 North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 28 North Melbourne 11.90
7 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 28 Fremantle Dockers 31.40

 

June 16, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.50 11.56 0.90
Stade Francais 6.18 -2.17 8.40
Montpellier 6.13 -0.21 6.30
Stade Rochelais 4.87 1.22 3.70
Racing 92 4.78 1.88 2.90
Bordeaux Begles 4.05 4.78 -0.70
Section Paloise 3.90 2.21 1.70
Clermont 3.53 1.88 1.60
Lyon -0.72 -0.45 -0.30
Toulon -0.73 3.49 -4.20
Castres Olympique -0.74 0.59 -1.30
Bayonne -1.91 1.48 -3.40
USA Perpignan -5.85 -3.37 -2.50
Montauban -23.12 -10.00 -13.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 142 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Jun 14 31 – 33 6.70 FALSE
2 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 15 45 – 5 5.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Jun 20 Stade Toulousain 14.20
2 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Jun 21 Montpellier 6.50

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

By

Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 14.76 8.29 6.50
Chiefs 14.40 12.36 2.00
Crusaders 9.09 8.41 0.70
Blues 5.40 8.91 -3.50
Brumbies 1.90 5.59 -3.70
Reds 0.41 1.74 -1.30
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.89 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.57 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.96 -7.64 -0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.80 -7.88 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 12 49 – 12 8.30 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jun 13 57 – 21 12.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 20 Hurricanes 5.40

 

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