Posts written by David Scott (1643)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 17, 2025

Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 14.41 11.43 3.00
Blues 11.30 14.92 -3.60
Crusaders 10.67 8.99 1.70
Hurricanes 9.86 10.97 -1.10
Brumbies 6.44 6.19 0.20
Reds 2.36 1.35 1.00
Highlanders -2.95 -2.50 -0.40
Waratahs -6.93 -5.17 -1.80
Western Force -7.15 -6.41 -0.70
Fijian Drua -8.52 -7.98 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -8.96 -11.25 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 13 21 – 14 2.20 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jun 14 37 – 17 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Jun 21 Chiefs -0.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.54 9.29 1.20
Panthers 4.95 8.50 -3.60
Roosters 4.73 7.44 -2.70
Dolphins 3.82 -1.96 5.80
Sharks 3.48 5.10 -1.60
Bulldogs 2.62 0.07 2.50
Sea Eagles 1.88 2.97 -1.10
Raiders 1.65 -3.61 5.30
Warriors 0.98 -1.68 2.70
Broncos -0.78 -1.82 1.00
Cowboys -1.00 4.11 -5.10
Knights -3.28 -0.05 -3.20
Eels -4.58 -3.02 -1.60
Rabbitohs -4.81 -4.35 -0.50
Dragons -4.92 -4.55 -0.40
Titans -6.87 -5.50 -1.40
Wests Tigers -8.42 -10.97 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 12 30 – 18 11.30 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 13 28 – 8 -8.10 FALSE
3 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 14 8 – 12 -5.20 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 14 4 – 58 2.20 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jun 15 18 – 24 -7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Jun 20 Raiders -7.10
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Jun 21 Panthers -0.50
3 Dolphins vs. Knights Jun 21 Dolphins 10.10
4 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Jun 21 Storm -12.30
5 Broncos vs. Sharks Jun 22 Sharks -1.30
6 Roosters vs. Cowboys Jun 22 Roosters 8.70
7 Eels vs. Titans Jun 22 Eels 5.30

 

AFL Predictions for Week 16

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Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 25.29 15.04 10.30
Western Bulldogs 23.17 18.20 5.00
Collingwood 20.28 5.39 14.90
Adelaide Crows 19.16 2.69 16.50
Hawthorn Hawks 12.68 21.95 -9.30
Brisbane Lions 11.97 22.65 -10.70
Fremantle Dockers 5.56 5.99 -0.40
GWS Giants 4.84 9.08 -4.20
Gold Coast Suns 4.34 -6.41 10.80
Carlton Blues 1.55 5.01 -3.50
Sydney Swans -0.40 12.60 -13.00
Melbourne Demons -3.10 -0.21 -2.90
Port Adelaide Power -3.18 7.63 -10.80
St Kilda Saints -6.55 0.89 -7.40
Essendon Bombers -16.68 -10.15 -6.50
North Melbourne -23.90 -37.08 13.20
Richmond Tigers -32.33 -31.00 -1.30
West Coast Eagles -35.08 -34.67 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 12 60 – 132 -23.20 TRUE
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 13 47 – 44 5.00 TRUE
3 Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 96 – 107 22.90 FALSE
4 Essendon Bombers vs. Geelong Cats Jun 14 56 – 151 -21.70 TRUE
5 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 14 67 – 73 -46.00 TRUE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 15 93 – 68 8.30 TRUE
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Jun 15 52 – 86 -23.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 19 Fremantle Dockers 33.20
2 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 20 Geelong Cats 17.30
3 Carlton Blues vs. North Melbourne Jun 21 Carlton Blues 29.50
4 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Jun 21 Port Adelaide Power 8.20
5 Collingwood vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 21 Collingwood 30.80
6 GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 22 GWS Giants 11.50
7 Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 22 Western Bulldogs 59.50

 

June 10, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.13 12.09 2.00
Bulls 11.28 8.83 2.50
Glasgow 6.79 9.39 -2.60
Stormers 5.77 6.75 -1.00
Munster 4.95 9.28 -4.30
Edinburgh 3.68 0.09 3.60
Sharks 2.93 -2.94 5.90
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Scarlets 0.62 -10.65 11.30
Lions -1.37 6.73 -8.10
Connacht -1.88 -0.76 -1.10
Cardiff Rugby -2.01 -2.55 0.50
Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30
Benetton -2.30 1.02 -3.30
Ulster -4.44 2.52 -7.00
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -12.09 -16.17 4.10
Dragons -18.16 -15.41 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 08 37 – 19 11.40 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 08 25 – 13 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Bulls Jun 15 Leinster 8.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.02 8.76 5.30
Toulon 4.79 5.32 -0.50
Bordeaux Begles 4.39 3.96 0.40
Clermont 3.05 0.41 2.60
Stade Rochelais 2.17 4.85 -2.70
Racing 92 1.31 2.75 -1.40
Section Paloise 0.95 1.38 -0.40
Castres Olympique 0.73 -0.09 0.80
Montpellier 0.51 -0.96 1.50
Bayonne -0.07 -1.69 1.60
Lyon -1.06 -0.18 -0.90
Stade Francais -2.54 1.86 -4.40
USA Perpignan -3.88 -0.66 -3.20
Vannes -8.65 -10.00 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 137 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Toulon Jun 08 18 – 10 1.90 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Vannes Jun 08 59 – 28 18.40 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Jun 08 34 – 47 5.40 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Jun 08 10 – 23 5.50 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 08 32 – 18 5.90 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jun 08 21 – 10 3.00 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 08 42 – 35 -12.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Castres Olympique Jun 15 Toulon 11.90
2 Bayonne vs. Clermont Jun 14 Bayonne 4.50

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 14.01 11.43 2.60
Blues 11.63 14.92 -3.30
Crusaders 10.34 8.99 1.40
Hurricanes 9.86 10.97 -1.10
Brumbies 6.84 6.19 0.60
Reds 2.36 1.35 1.00
Highlanders -2.95 -2.50 -0.40
Waratahs -6.93 -5.17 -1.80
Western Force -7.15 -6.41 -0.70
Fijian Drua -8.52 -7.98 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -8.96 -11.25 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds Jun 06 32 – 12 11.20 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Blues Jun 07 19 – 20 6.60 FALSE
3 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jun 07 35 – 28 0.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 13 Crusaders 2.20
2 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jun 14 Chiefs 11.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 10.82 5.55 5.30
Sale Sharks 6.93 4.73 2.20
Leicester Tigers 5.48 3.27 2.20
Saracens 5.27 9.68 -4.40
Gloucester 4.57 -9.04 13.60
Bristol 3.83 9.58 -5.80
Northampton Saints -1.27 7.50 -8.80
Harlequins -2.64 -2.73 0.10
Exeter Chiefs -4.28 1.23 -5.50
Newcastle Falcons -17.96 -19.02 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Bristol Jun 07 34 – 20 13.40 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Jun 08 21 – 16 5.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 15 Bath 5.30

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.54 9.29 1.20
Panthers 4.95 8.50 -3.60
Roosters 4.83 7.44 -2.60
Sharks 3.43 5.10 -1.70
Sea Eagles 3.03 2.97 0.10
Bulldogs 2.76 0.07 2.70
Dolphins 1.81 -1.96 3.80
Raiders 1.65 -3.61 5.30
Cowboys 1.01 4.11 -3.10
Warriors 0.98 -1.68 2.70
Broncos -0.78 -1.82 1.00
Knights -3.37 -0.05 -3.30
Eels -4.58 -3.02 -1.60
Dragons -4.87 -4.55 -0.30
Rabbitohs -4.94 -4.35 -0.60
Titans -8.03 -5.50 -2.50
Wests Tigers -8.42 -10.97 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Jun 05 26 – 22 -4.30 FALSE
2 Storm vs. Cowboys Jun 06 38 – 14 11.30 TRUE
3 Dolphins vs. Dragons Jun 06 56 – 6 6.40 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Warriors Jun 07 10 – 40 8.90 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 07 44 – 14 8.40 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jun 08 36 – 12 8.10 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 08 14 – 18 -11.10 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 09 30 – 12 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 12 Sharks 11.30
2 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jun 13 Sea Eagles -8.10
3 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 14 Roosters -5.20
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 14 Cowboys 2.20
5 Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs Jun 15 Bulldogs -7.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 20.67 15.04 5.60
Collingwood 20.28 5.39 14.90
Western Bulldogs 19.90 18.20 1.70
Adelaide Crows 18.92 2.69 16.20
Brisbane Lions 14.37 22.65 -8.30
Hawthorn Hawks 12.92 21.95 -9.00
Fremantle Dockers 8.32 5.99 2.30
Gold Coast Suns 4.34 -6.41 10.80
GWS Giants 2.44 9.08 -6.60
Carlton Blues 0.23 5.01 -4.80
Sydney Swans -0.40 12.60 -13.00
Melbourne Demons -1.79 -0.21 -1.60
St Kilda Saints -3.28 0.89 -4.20
Port Adelaide Power -4.49 7.63 -12.10
Essendon Bombers -12.07 -10.15 -1.90
North Melbourne -26.66 -37.08 10.40
Richmond Tigers -32.33 -31.00 -1.30
West Coast Eagles -33.76 -34.67 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 05 59 – 81 11.80 FALSE
2 Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 68 – 63 17.60 TRUE
3 Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans Jun 07 36 – 80 -17.00 TRUE
4 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 07 61 – 37 19.20 TRUE
5 GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 07 50 – 66 23.40 FALSE
6 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 08 62 – 52 -6.50 FALSE
7 Carlton Blues vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 08 78 – 70 13.60 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood Jun 09 71 – 72 -25.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 12 Western Bulldogs -23.20
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 13 Hawthorn Hawks 5.00
3 Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 Brisbane Lions 22.90
4 Essendon Bombers vs. Geelong Cats Jun 14 Geelong Cats -21.70
5 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 14 Fremantle Dockers -46.00
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 15 Port Adelaide Power 8.30
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues Jun 15 Carlton Blues -23.00

 

June 3, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.40 12.09 1.30
Bulls 11.12 8.83 2.30
Glasgow 7.51 9.39 -1.90
Stormers 5.77 6.75 -1.00
Munster 4.95 9.28 -4.30
Edinburgh 3.68 0.09 3.60
Sharks 3.09 -2.94 6.00
Cheetahs 0.80 0.80 0.00
Scarlets 0.62 -10.65 11.30
Lions -1.37 6.73 -8.10
Connacht -1.88 -0.76 -1.10
Cardiff Rugby -2.01 -2.55 0.50
Ospreys -2.18 -2.51 0.30
Benetton -2.30 1.02 -3.30
Ulster -4.44 2.52 -7.00
Southern Kings -6.52 -6.52 0.00
Zebre -12.09 -16.17 4.10
Dragons -18.16 -15.41 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 105 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Stormers May 31 36 – 18 5.30 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Edinburgh May 31 42 – 33 14.00 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Scarlets Jun 01 33 – 21 20.00 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Munster Jun 01 25 – 24 4.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Glasgow Jun 08 Leinster 11.40
2 Bulls vs. Sharks Jun 08 Bulls 10.50

 

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