Posts written by David Scott (1793)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

May 19, 2026

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 15

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Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.94 8.29 5.60
Chiefs 12.66 12.36 0.30
Crusaders 8.22 8.41 -0.20
Blues 7.43 8.91 -1.50
Brumbies 3.91 5.59 -1.70
Reds 0.72 1.74 -1.00
Highlanders -3.43 -3.06 -0.40
Western Force -3.66 -6.29 2.60
Waratahs -4.34 -5.84 1.50
Fijian Drua -7.85 -7.64 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -13.01 -7.88 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 67 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders May 15 42 – 12 20.20 TRUE
2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs May 16 35 – 50 2.90 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 16 24 – 47 0.20 FALSE
4 Western Force vs. Reds May 16 19 – 14 0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 22 Crusaders 0.60
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 22 Brumbies -3.30
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds May 23 Reds -10.20
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 23 Hurricanes 22.40
5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 23 Western Force 9.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 12.04 10.30 1.70
Leicester Tigers 11.97 5.55 6.40
Saracens 10.00 5.03 5.00
Northampton Saints 9.34 -1.47 10.80
Exeter Chiefs 3.35 -4.58 7.90
Bristol 0.62 3.66 -3.00
Sale Sharks -1.92 6.70 -8.60
Gloucester -4.89 4.13 -9.00
Harlequins -5.42 -3.02 -2.40
Newcastle Red Bulls -27.23 -18.45 -8.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol May 16 94 – 33 8.70 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Red Bulls May 17 69 – 12 44.30 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 17 41 – 24 -5.00 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester May 17 30 – 14 23.00 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 18 33 – 47 -5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath May 30 Bath -4.40
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks May 31 Sale Sharks -18.30
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 31 Northampton Saints 21.20
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins May 31 Saracens 22.40
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 01 Leicester Tigers 15.60

 

NRL Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.27 8.77 4.50
Roosters 6.98 9.50 -2.50
Sea Eagles 6.56 0.21 6.30
Warriors 5.80 -1.18 7.00
Sharks 5.76 7.25 -1.50
Dolphins 4.05 1.85 2.20
Storm 2.17 6.96 -4.80
Broncos 0.83 7.06 -6.20
Rabbitohs 0.60 -5.05 5.70
Cowboys -0.30 -2.69 2.40
Raiders -1.60 1.62 -3.20
Knights -4.69 -14.06 9.40
Bulldogs -5.05 2.13 -7.20
Wests Tigers -5.35 -7.26 1.90
Eels -6.88 -0.37 -6.50
Titans -7.94 -8.02 0.10
Dragons -14.22 -6.72 -7.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 15 38 – 16 8.80 TRUE
2 Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins May 15 10 – 32 -5.00 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles May 16 18 – 46 -9.20 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 16 12 – 18 9.50 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Storm May 16 8 – 34 -6.30 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Knights May 17 12 – 36 0.00 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Broncos May 17 42 – 12 -3.40 FALSE
8 Panthers vs. Dragons May 17 28 – 6 29.00 TRUE

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Dolphins May 21 Dolphins -1.70
2 Bulldogs vs. Storm May 22 Storm -3.20
3 Dragons vs. Warriors May 23 Warriors -16.00
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans May 23 Sea Eagles 18.50
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs May 24 Cowboys 3.10

AFL Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 28.48 26.75 1.70
Sydney Swans 20.78 0.56 20.20
Brisbane Lions 19.79 26.20 -6.40
Hawthorn Hawks 15.89 22.83 -6.90
Fremantle Dockers 15.62 6.56 9.10
Adelaide Crows 11.54 15.32 -3.80
Gold Coast Suns 10.65 10.24 0.40
Collingwood 10.22 11.76 -1.50
Western Bulldogs 9.85 26.06 -16.20
Melbourne Demons 3.97 1.64 2.30
St Kilda Saints 0.91 -7.63 8.50
GWS Giants -3.61 9.54 -13.20
Carlton Blues -5.61 -4.77 -0.80
Port Adelaide Power -6.99 -14.65 7.70
North Melbourne -13.75 -21.71 8.00
Essendon Bombers -26.37 -27.89 1.50
Richmond Tigers -39.51 -29.44 -10.10
West Coast Eagles -39.85 -39.36 -0.50

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats May 14 76 – 117 9.80 FALSE
2 Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood May 15 81 – 75 24.40 TRUE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power May 15 98 – 73 16.00 TRUE
4 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne May 16 133 – 65 30.70 TRUE
5 Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 16 120 – 81 -20.70 FALSE
6 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs May 16 74 – 62 -20.40 FALSE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers May 17 61 – 104 -28.70 TRUE
8 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers May 17 109 – 73 41.40 TRUE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants May 17 88 – 71 -32.60 FALSE

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows May 21 Hawthorn Hawks 15.30
2 Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers May 22 Essendon Bombers -13.10
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints May 22 Fremantle Dockers 25.70
4 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns May 23 Gold Coast Suns -13.40
5 Geelong Cats vs. Sydney Swans May 23 Geelong Cats 18.70
6 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles May 23 Collingwood 61.10
7 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues May 23 Port Adelaide Power 9.60
8 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions May 24 Brisbane Lions -12.40
9 Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons May 24 Western Bulldogs 5.90
May 12, 2026

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 16

By

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 11.29 5.55 5.70
Bath 11.06 10.30 0.80
Saracens 10.58 5.03 5.50
Northampton Saints 5.82 -1.47 7.30
Exeter Chiefs 4.97 -4.58 9.60
Bristol 4.15 3.66 0.50
Sale Sharks -1.24 6.70 -7.90
Gloucester -5.47 4.13 -9.60
Harlequins -7.04 -3.02 -4.00
Newcastle Red Bulls -26.25 -18.45 -7.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 75 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks May 09 21 – 15 2.00 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Saracens May 10 26 – 41 3.30 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints May 10 41 – 17 10.40 TRUE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath May 11 35 – 12 -2.80 FALSE
5 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Harlequins May 11 17 – 76 -5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol May 16 Northampton Saints 8.70
2 Bath vs. Newcastle Red Bulls May 17 Bath 44.30
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs May 17 Exeter Chiefs -5.00
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester May 17 Saracens 23.00
5 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers May 18 Leicester Tigers -5.50

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 18

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Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 9.57 8.86 0.70
Leinster 8.75 13.41 -4.70
Stormers 6.69 4.17 2.50
Glasgow 5.94 6.18 -0.20
Lions 3.18 -1.19 4.40
Munster 2.48 3.65 -1.20
Connacht 1.68 -1.39 3.10
Sharks 1.39 1.29 0.10
Ulster 0.20 -3.24 3.40
Ospreys -2.08 -2.15 0.10
Edinburgh -2.24 2.67 -4.90
Cardiff Rugby -2.26 -2.74 0.50
Scarlets -3.03 -0.54 -2.50
Benetton -6.66 -2.32 -4.30
Dragons -10.20 -15.66 5.50
Zebre -13.41 -11.02 -2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby May 09 40 – 17 14.10 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Stormers May 09 38 – 38 0.70 FALSE
3 Bulls vs. Zebre May 09 54 – 19 28.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Benetton May 10 46 – 7 12.50 TRUE
5 Leinster vs. Lions May 10 31 – 7 11.10 TRUE
6 Ospreys vs. Scarlets May 10 27 – 20 1.80 TRUE
7 Connacht vs. Munster May 10 26 – 7 -0.90 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Edinburgh May 10 15 – 24 0.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers May 16 Stormers -1.90
2 Edinburgh vs. Connacht May 16 Edinburgh 3.10
3 Ulster vs. Glasgow May 16 Ulster 1.30
4 Sharks vs. Zebre May 16 Sharks 21.80
5 Bulls vs. Benetton May 17 Bulls 23.20
6 Leinster vs. Ospreys May 17 Leinster 17.80
7 Scarlets vs. Dragons May 17 Scarlets 9.20
8 Munster vs. Lions May 17 Munster 6.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.41 11.56 2.80
Montpellier 5.80 -0.21 6.00
Bordeaux Begles 5.11 4.78 0.30
Section Paloise 4.39 2.21 2.20
Clermont 4.07 1.88 2.20
Stade Rochelais 4.03 1.22 2.80
Stade Francais 3.94 -2.17 6.10
Racing 92 2.37 1.88 0.50
Toulon -0.17 3.49 -3.70
Lyon -0.92 -0.45 -0.50
Castres Olympique -1.06 0.59 -1.70
Bayonne -2.89 1.48 -4.40
USA Perpignan -5.15 -3.37 -1.80
Montauban -21.04 -10.00 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 161 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles May 10 38 – 40 -1.40 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan May 10 45 – 14 14.60 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Montauban May 10 59 – 7 32.00 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique May 10 27 – 15 11.90 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Lyon May 10 59 – 17 9.40 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain May 10 27 – 51 -6.90 TRUE
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais May 11 24 – 26 5.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan May 17 Bordeaux Begles 16.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier May 17 Montpellier -0.40
3 Lyon vs. Bayonne May 17 Lyon 8.50
4 Montauban vs. Stade Francais May 17 Stade Francais -18.50
5 Racing 92 vs. Toulon May 17 Racing 92 9.00
6 Section Paloise vs. Clermont May 17 Section Paloise 6.80
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain May 17 Stade Toulousain -3.90

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14

By

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.07 8.29 4.80
Chiefs 12.22 12.36 -0.10
Blues 8.30 8.91 -0.60
Crusaders 8.22 8.41 -0.20
Brumbies 3.91 5.59 -1.70
Reds 0.97 1.74 -0.80
Highlanders -2.99 -3.06 0.10
Western Force -3.91 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -5.04 -5.84 0.80
Fijian Drua -7.15 -7.64 0.50
Moana Pasifika -13.01 -7.88 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Blues May 08 36 – 20 3.90 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Chiefs May 08 21 – 31 -7.40 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Waratahs May 09 31 – 26 5.60 TRUE
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes May 09 17 – 50 -20.00 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Western Force May 09 32 – 15 12.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders May 15 Chiefs 20.20
2 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs May 16 Fijian Drua 2.90
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 16 Blues 0.20
4 Western Force vs. Reds May 16 Western Force 0.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.04 8.77 5.30
Roosters 8.12 9.50 -1.40
Sea Eagles 5.23 0.21 5.00
Sharks 4.78 7.25 -2.50
Warriors 3.64 -1.18 4.80
Broncos 2.99 7.06 -4.10
Dolphins 2.83 1.85 1.00
Rabbitohs 1.83 -5.05 6.90
Storm 0.78 6.96 -6.20
Cowboys -1.43 -2.69 1.30
Raiders -1.60 1.62 -3.20
Wests Tigers -4.02 -7.26 3.20
Bulldogs -4.07 2.13 -6.20
Eels -5.49 -0.37 -5.10
Titans -6.30 -8.02 1.70
Knights -6.33 -14.06 7.70
Dragons -14.99 -6.72 -8.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Bulldogs May 07 44 – 12 7.60 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Titans May 08 28 – 12 19.10 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Eels May 08 30 – 33 10.00 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Knights May 09 10 – 44 -0.30 TRUE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks May 09 36 – 12 -2.50 FALSE
6 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 09 32 – 4 2.80 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Wests Tigers May 10 44 – 16 5.70 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Panthers May 10 18 – 30 -11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Bulldogs May 15 Sharks 8.80
2 Rabbitohs vs. Dolphins May 15 Dolphins -5.00
3 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles May 16 Sea Eagles -9.20
4 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 16 Roosters 9.50
5 Eels vs. Storm May 16 Storm -6.30
6 Titans vs. Knights May 17 Titans 0.00
7 Warriors vs. Broncos May 17 Broncos -3.40
8 Panthers vs. Dragons May 17 Panthers 29.00

 

AFL Predictions for Week 11

By

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 24.72 26.75 -2.00
Brisbane Lions 23.55 26.20 -2.60
Sydney Swans 22.22 0.56 21.70
Hawthorn Hawks 20.26 22.83 -2.60
Fremantle Dockers 14.49 6.56 7.90
Western Bulldogs 12.30 26.06 -13.80
Gold Coast Suns 9.84 10.24 -0.40
Collingwood 8.79 11.76 -3.00
Adelaide Crows 8.74 15.32 -6.60
St Kilda Saints 1.39 -7.63 9.00
GWS Giants 0.06 9.54 -9.50
Melbourne Demons -0.41 1.64 -2.00
Port Adelaide Power -6.18 -14.65 8.50
Carlton Blues -8.06 -4.77 -3.30
North Melbourne -10.95 -21.71 10.80
Essendon Bombers -25.25 -27.89 2.60
Richmond Tigers -40.00 -29.44 -10.60
West Coast Eagles -43.52 -39.36 -4.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 81 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 07 88 – 73 3.10 TRUE
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues May 08 100 – 89 48.20 TRUE
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Western Bulldogs May 08 72 – 74 -8.70 TRUE
4 North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans May 09 97 – 105 -24.80 TRUE
5 GWS Giants vs. Essendon Bombers May 09 103 – 89 40.30 TRUE
6 Gold Coast Suns vs. St Kilda Saints May 09 89 – 60 4.70 TRUE
7 Geelong Cats vs. Collingwood May 09 122 – 68 9.30 TRUE
8 Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles May 10 99 – 67 58.10 TRUE
9 Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows May 10 61 – 98 -37.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats May 14 Brisbane Lions 9.80
2 Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood May 15 Sydney Swans 24.40
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Port Adelaide Power May 15 Gold Coast Suns 16.00
4 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne May 16 Adelaide Crows 30.70
5 Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 16 Hawthorn Hawks -20.70
6 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs May 16 Western Bulldogs -20.40
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Fremantle Dockers May 17 Fremantle Dockers -28.70
8 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers May 17 St Kilda Saints 41.40
9 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants May 17 GWS Giants -32.60

 

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