February 27, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 3

Team Ratings for Round 3

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.03 9.03 0.00
Chiefs 7.47 6.98 0.50
Sharks 4.63 4.57 0.10
Bulls 3.05 2.55 0.50
Stormers 2.83 3.34 -0.50
Hurricanes 2.49 4.40 -1.90
Brumbies 1.02 -1.06 2.10
Reds -0.72 0.46 -1.20
Blues -1.11 -3.02 1.90
Highlanders -3.90 -3.41 -0.50
Cheetahs -4.22 -4.16 -0.10
Waratahs -4.29 -4.10 -0.20
Kings -9.37 -10.00 0.60
Force -10.79 -9.73 -1.10
Rebels -10.93 -10.64 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 88.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 22 27 – 41 -7.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 22 13 – 30 -8.00 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 22 25 – 17 1.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 23 20 – 34 9.90 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 23 25 – 17 5.70 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Feb 23 22 – 29 -6.20 TRUE
7 Kings vs. Force Feb 23 22 – 10 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 01 Crusaders -7.60
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 01 Waratahs 9.10
3 Reds vs. Hurricanes Mar 01 Reds 0.80
4 Chiefs vs. Cheetahs Mar 02 Chiefs 15.70
5 Bulls vs. Force Mar 02 Bulls 17.80
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 02 Sharks 4.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Jarred

    Could the size of the number in the prediction column help predict how big the points difference will be?

    1 year ago Reply

    • avatar

      It is my estimate of the expected points difference, so yes, a bigger number indicates a bigger expected points difference.

      1 year ago Reply

  • avatar
    Kristi

    Hi there,

    When will you load the predictions for round 4?
    Also could you explain the points in the last column?

    Thanks :)

    1 year ago Reply

    • avatar

      I aim to post the new predictions on Wednesday each week.

      The points in the final column are my estimated expected points difference between the two teams. There will of course be variability about that expected value. The larger the value (either positive or negative), the higher is the chance that my predicted winner will actually win the game.

      1 year ago Reply

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