Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10
Team Ratings for Week 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blues | 14.35 | 12.20 | 2.20 |
| Chiefs | 13.31 | 13.21 | 0.10 |
| Hurricanes | 13.30 | 9.73 | 3.60 |
| Crusaders | 13.24 | 18.86 | -5.60 |
| Brumbies | 6.31 | 6.52 | -0.20 |
| Reds | 2.26 | 0.07 | 2.20 |
| Highlanders | -1.04 | 1.17 | -2.20 |
| Waratahs | -2.05 | -1.90 | -0.10 |
| Rebels | -3.87 | -4.59 | 0.70 |
| Western Force | -6.91 | -6.15 | -0.80 |
| Fijian Drua | -7.73 | -9.21 | 1.50 |
| Moana Pasifika | -12.06 | -10.80 | -1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes | Apr 19 | 15 – 38 | -15.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Highlanders | Apr 19 | 31 – 0 | 6.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Blues vs. Brumbies | Apr 20 | 46 – 7 | 11.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Western Force vs. Crusaders | Apr 20 | 37 – 15 | -17.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 10
Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Rebels | Apr 26 | Crusaders | 22.10 |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Chiefs | Apr 26 | Chiefs | -10.40 |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika | Apr 27 | Fijian Drua | 9.30 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Hurricanes | Apr 27 | Hurricanes | -2.00 |
| 5 | Highlanders vs. Western Force | Apr 27 | Highlanders | 10.90 |
| 6 | Reds vs. Blues | Apr 27 | Blues | -7.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
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Hi David, I look at your predictions every week. Are you able to tell me if your picks are -12 or +13 for the winners. I do a picks comp each week and knowing this would be a big help.
Thank you, in advance.
Heather McLean
0212467762
1 week ago
The prediction column gives the *expected* points difference (first named team – second named team). Note there is variability about that expected value.
5 days ago