March 6, 2013

Super 15 Predictions, Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 4, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 9.58 6.98 2.60
Crusaders 6.90 9.03 -2.10
Sharks 4.76 4.57 0.20
Stormers 2.70 3.34 -0.60
Bulls 2.42 2.55 -0.10
Hurricanes 2.07 4.40 -2.30
Brumbies 1.02 -1.06 2.10
Blues 1.02 -3.02 4.00
Reds -0.30 0.46 -0.80
Highlanders -3.90 -3.41 -0.50
Waratahs -4.62 -4.10 -0.50
Cheetahs -6.32 -4.16 -2.20
Kings -9.37 -10.00 0.60
Force -10.16 -9.73 -0.40
Rebels -10.60 -10.64 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 86.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 01 34 – 15 -7.60 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 01 31 – 26 9.10 TRUE
3 Reds vs. Hurricanes Mar 01 18 – 12 0.80 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Cheetahs Mar 02 45 – 3 15.70 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Force Mar 02 36 – 26 17.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Stormers Mar 02 12 – 6 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 08 Crusaders -2.30
2 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 08 Reds -7.80
3 Highlanders vs. Cheetahs Mar 09 Highlanders 6.40
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 09 Brumbies 8.10
5 Stormers vs. Chiefs Mar 09 Chiefs -2.90
6 Kings vs. Sharks Mar 09 Sharks -11.60
7 Blues vs. Bulls Mar 10 Blues 2.60

 
 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Willem du Plessis

    Do you also do predictions for the South African Currie cup ? and if not How do you calculate your predictions if we want to calculate it ourselves .

    Willem

    9 months ago Reply

    • avatar

      I haven’t done predictions on the Currie Cup, but could easily do so. The only problem would be getting a few years (maybe 5 at least) of data of past games. If you could supply a file of results, I would be happy to provide some predictions.

      9 months ago Reply

      • avatar
        Willem du Plessis

        Thanks, I’ll see if we could gather the info

        9 months ago Reply

  • avatar
    Willem du Plessis

    I have found the Currie cup results from 2008 – 2012. Please send met an e-mail address to send the PDF files with the results

    Regards

    Willem

    9 months ago Reply

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