March 25, 2015

Gimme that old time nutrition

Q: Did you see that eating a bowl of quinoa every day helps you live longer?

A: No.

Q: There’s story on Stuff (well, from the West Island branches). Is it true?

A: Hard to say.

Q: Well, does the research claim it’s true?

A: Hard to say.

Q: Why? Didn’t they link?

A: No, they linked, and the paper is even open-access. It just doesn’t say anything about the effects of quinoa.

Q: But the story said “A new study by Harvard Public School of Health has found that eating a daily bowl of the protein-packed, gluten-free grain significantly reduces the risk of premature death from cancer, heart disease, respiratory disease and diabetes.”

A: Sadly, yes.

Q: This is your correlation and causation thing again, isn’t it?

A: No, the paper just doesn’t mention quinoa. It talks about grains and cereals.

Q: Ok. So they just didn’t break out the data for quinoa separately. It’s still a grain and a cereal, isn’t it?

A: Yes, as long as you aren’t even more pedantic than me. But it’s not just data analysis. They didn’t even ask their study participants about eating quinoa.

Q: So? Some of the grain they ate must have been quinoa, and there’s no reason to expect it’s different from other grains, is there? Won’t it all get averaged in somehow?

A: I suppose so. But there can’t have been that much of it getting “averaged in”

Q: Why not? You old folks may not have caught on, but quinoa’s getting popular now.

A: The study was in people over 50. That’s older than both of us. Even assuming we weren’t the same person.

Q: Even so. Things are changing. People have more adventurous diets. It’s not the twentieth century any more.

A: It is in the study.

Q: Huh?

A: The dietary data were collected in 1995 and 1997, from people with average age 61 years.

Q: Oh.

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »