AFL Predictions for Week 7
Team Ratings for Week 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 25.67 | 26.06 | -0.40 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 23.78 | 22.83 | 0.90 |
| Brisbane Lions | 23.36 | 26.20 | -2.80 |
| Geelong Cats | 19.98 | 26.75 | -6.80 |
| Sydney Swans | 17.97 | 0.56 | 17.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 14.83 | 15.32 | -0.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 12.65 | 10.24 | 2.40 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 12.63 | 6.56 | 6.10 |
| Collingwood | 8.31 | 11.76 | -3.40 |
| GWS Giants | 5.43 | 9.54 | -4.10 |
| Melbourne Demons | -2.80 | 1.64 | -4.40 |
| St Kilda Saints | -5.14 | -7.63 | 2.50 |
| Carlton Blues | -11.34 | -4.77 | -6.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -15.81 | -14.65 | -1.20 |
| North Melbourne | -17.63 | -21.71 | 4.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -24.30 | -27.89 | 3.60 |
| Richmond Tigers | -35.84 | -29.44 | -6.40 |
| West Coast Eagles | -39.77 | -39.36 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 45 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 09 | 114 – 86 | 39.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 10 | 39 – 45 | -3.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | North Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 11 | 66 – 92 | -43.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Melbourne Demons | Apr 11 | 113 – 68 | -32.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sydney Swans vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 11 | 100 – 68 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 11 | 104 – 64 | -9.20 | FALSE |
| 7 | Geelong Cats vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 12 | 122 – 76 | 62.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | GWS Giants vs. Richmond Tigers | Apr 12 | 131 – 75 | 38.50 | TRUE |
| 9 | Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 12 | 67 – 81 | 3.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 7
Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood | Apr 16 | Collingwood | -19.70 |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 17 | Geelong Cats | 5.30 |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants | Apr 17 | Sydney Swans | 23.50 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 18 | Gold Coast Suns | 48.00 |
| 5 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 18 | Hawthorn Hawks | 50.60 |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 18 | Adelaide Crows | 31.00 |
| 7 | North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers | Apr 19 | North Melbourne | 18.20 |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 19 | Brisbane Lions | -15.20 |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 19 | Fremantle Dockers | -52.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »