August 31, 2016

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 10.67 9.69 1.00
Western Province 5.25 6.46 -1.20
Sharks 1.80 -0.60 2.40
Blue Bulls 0.67 1.80 -1.10
Cheetahs 0.13 -3.42 3.50
Griquas -11.01 -12.45 1.40
Pumas -11.07 -8.62 -2.40
Cavaliers -12.35 -10.00 -2.30
Kings -15.53 -14.29 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.0%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Kings vs. Western Province Aug 26 6 – 36 -15.60 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 26 35 – 41 4.80 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Cavaliers Aug 27 60 – 12 24.00 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Aug 27 26 – 19 4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cavaliers vs. Pumas Sep 02 Cavaliers 2.20
2 Cheetahs vs. Kings Sep 02 Cheetahs 19.20
3 Blue Bulls vs. Lions Sep 03 Lions -6.50
4 Western Province vs. Sharks Sep 03 Western Province 7.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »