February 21, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.22 13.22 -0.00
Chiefs 9.75 9.75 -0.00
Highlanders 9.17 9.17 0.00
Crusaders 8.75 8.75 0.00
Lions 7.64 7.64 0.00
Waratahs 5.81 5.81 -0.00
Brumbies 3.83 3.83 0.00
Stormers 1.51 1.51 0.00
Sharks 0.42 0.42 -0.00
Bulls 0.29 0.29 0.00
Blues -1.07 -1.07 0.00
Jaguares -4.36 -4.36 -0.00
Cheetahs -7.36 -7.36 0.00
Rebels -8.17 -8.17 -0.00
Force -9.45 -9.45 0.00
Reds -10.28 -10.28 0.00
Sunwolves -17.76 -17.76 0.00
Kings -19.02 -19.02 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rebels vs. Blues Feb 23 Blues -3.10
2 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 Highlanders 2.90
3 Reds vs. Sharks Feb 24 Sharks -6.70
4 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 Hurricanes -27.00
5 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Feb 25 Crusaders 8.90
6 Waratahs vs. Force Feb 25 Waratahs 18.80
7 Cheetahs vs. Lions Feb 25 Lions -11.50
8 Kings vs. Jaguares Feb 25 Jaguares -10.70
9 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 25 Stormers 4.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Paul dee

    Hi David – This is great, I’m going to try a more statistical approach to my selections….how do you calculate the team ratings to begin with?

    4 months ago

    • avatar

      I start from 2006 with all teams on zero. When new teams are added they get a ranking of -10, which is arbitrary, but seems to work ok.

      4 months ago