Super 15 Predictions, Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 11, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.36 | 10.46 | -1.10 |
| Stormers | 7.60 | 6.59 | 1.00 |
| Bulls | 7.19 | 4.16 | 3.00 |
| Chiefs | 4.07 | -1.17 | 5.20 |
| Waratahs | 0.77 | 4.98 | -4.20 |
| Sharks | -0.03 | 0.87 | -0.90 |
| Reds | -1.68 | 5.03 | -6.70 |
| Highlanders | -1.95 | -5.69 | 3.70 |
| Hurricanes | -2.16 | -1.90 | -0.30 |
| Brumbies | -2.16 | -6.66 | 4.50 |
| Blues | -2.23 | 2.87 | -5.10 |
| Cheetahs | -2.56 | -1.46 | -1.10 |
| Force | -4.98 | -4.95 | -0.00 |
| Lions | -10.83 | -10.82 | -0.00 |
| Rebels | -13.72 | -15.64 | 1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 66 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Reds | Apr 27 | 11 – 23 | 7.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Lions vs. Brumbies | Apr 27 | 20 – 34 | -2.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Hurricanes | Apr 28 | 33 – 14 | 9.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Force vs. Stormers | Apr 28 | 3 – 17 | -7.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cheetahs vs. Highlanders | Apr 28 | 33 – 36 | 5.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Waratahs vs. Crusaders | Apr 29 | 33 – 37 | -4.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Blues | May 04 | Hurricanes | 4.60 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Bulls | May 04 | Bulls | -16.40 |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Lions | May 05 | Chiefs | 19.40 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Waratahs | May 05 | Brumbies | 1.60 |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Highlanders | May 05 | Sharks | 6.40 |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Force | May 05 | Cheetahs | 6.90 |
| 7 | Crusaders vs. Reds | May 06 | Crusaders | 15.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »