Top 14 Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.69 | 7.24 | 0.50 |
| Stade Rochelais | 6.07 | 6.40 | -0.30 |
| Toulon | 5.11 | 3.11 | 2.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.69 | 4.07 | 0.60 |
| Racing 92 | 3.84 | 3.42 | 0.40 |
| Stade Francais | 2.50 | 2.62 | -0.10 |
| Section Paloise | 0.38 | -0.44 | 0.80 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.22 | -0.39 | 0.20 |
| Clermont | -0.45 | 1.47 | -1.90 |
| Montpellier | -0.53 | 2.09 | -2.60 |
| Lyon | -0.64 | 2.97 | -3.60 |
| USA Perpignan | -1.02 | -3.64 | 2.60 |
| Bayonne | -1.28 | -1.32 | 0.00 |
| US Oyonnax | -8.54 | -10.00 | 1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 154 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Bordeaux Begles | Apr 28 | 15 – 34 | 1.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Section Paloise | Apr 28 | 38 – 20 | 4.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan | Apr 28 | 20 – 25 | 7.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon | Apr 28 | 27 – 17 | 7.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 | Apr 28 | 32 – 12 | 9.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | US Oyonnax vs. Castres Olympique | Apr 28 | 22 – 19 | -2.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Stade Francais | Apr 29 | 41 – 18 | 2.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Rochelais | May 12 | Bordeaux Begles | 5.10 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier | May 12 | Castres Olympique | 6.80 |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Bayonne | May 12 | Racing 92 | 11.60 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. US Oyonnax | May 12 | Section Paloise | 15.40 |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Lyon | May 12 | Toulon | 12.30 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Clermont | May 12 | USA Perpignan | 5.90 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais | May 13 | Stade Toulousain | 11.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »