Super 15 Predictions, Week 19
Team Ratings for Week 19
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 19, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 10.50 | 10.46 | 0.00 |
| Stormers | 6.62 | 6.59 | 0.00 |
| Bulls | 4.53 | 4.16 | 0.40 |
| Chiefs | 2.99 | -1.17 | 4.20 |
| Sharks | 2.65 | 0.87 | 1.80 |
| Hurricanes | 2.49 | -1.90 | 4.40 |
| Reds | 0.72 | 5.03 | -4.30 |
| Brumbies | -0.01 | -6.66 | 6.60 |
| Waratahs | -2.01 | 4.98 | -7.00 |
| Cheetahs | -2.92 | -1.46 | -1.50 |
| Highlanders | -3.06 | -5.69 | 2.60 |
| Blues | -5.97 | 2.87 | -8.80 |
| Force | -8.17 | -4.95 | -3.20 |
| Lions | -9.21 | -10.82 | 1.60 |
| Rebels | -12.45 | -15.64 | 3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 100 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Jun 01 | 51 – 18 | 15.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Brumbies | Jun 01 | 19 – 27 | -7.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Blues vs. Chiefs | Jun 02 | 34 – 41 | -4.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Hurricanes | Jun 02 | 12 – 33 | 4.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Lions vs. Sharks | Jun 02 | 38 – 28 | -10.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Jun 02 | 14 – 19 | 3.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 19
Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | Jun 29 | Chiefs | -1.50 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Reds | Jun 29 | Reds | -8.70 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Hurricanes | Jun 30 | Crusaders | 12.50 |
| 4 | Force vs. Brumbies | Jun 30 | Brumbies | -3.70 |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Lions | Jun 30 | Stormers | 20.30 |
| 6 | Bulls vs. Cheetahs | Jun 30 | Bulls | 11.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »