NRL Predictions, Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 6, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.95 | 9.73 | 1.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 9.97 | 4.78 | 5.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 5.68 | 5.23 | 0.40 |
| Bulldogs | 3.61 | 7.33 | -3.70 |
| Cowboys | 3.55 | 7.05 | -3.50 |
| Knights | 3.35 | 0.44 | 2.90 |
| Broncos | 2.11 | -1.55 | 3.70 |
| Titans | 0.66 | -1.85 | 2.50 |
| Roosters | -1.25 | -5.68 | 4.40 |
| Dragons | -1.44 | -0.33 | -1.10 |
| Sharks | -3.43 | -1.78 | -1.60 |
| Raiders | -3.48 | 2.03 | -5.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.69 | -3.71 | -1.00 |
| Panthers | -8.56 | -6.58 | -2.00 |
| Eels | -10.11 | -8.82 | -1.30 |
| Warriors | -10.68 | -10.01 | -0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles | Apr 05 | 6 – 20 | 1.17 | FALSE |
| 2 | Titans vs. Broncos | Apr 05 | 12 – 32 | 8.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Eels vs. Sharks | Apr 06 | 13 – 6 | -4.47 | FALSE |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | Apr 06 | 30 – 0 | 13.26 | TRUE |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Knights | Apr 07 | 19 – 16 | -1.12 | FALSE |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Rabbitohs | Apr 07 | 22 – 24 | -14.32 | TRUE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Roosters | Apr 07 | 24 – 22 | 2.34 | TRUE |
| 8 | Storm vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 08 | 26 – 12 | 21.68 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Cowboys | Apr 12 | Broncos | 3.10 |
| 2 | Roosters vs. Bulldogs | Apr 12 | Bulldogs | -0.40 |
| 3 | Knights vs. Panthers | Apr 13 | Knights | 16.40 |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Warriors | Apr 13 | Raiders | 11.70 |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Apr 13 | Storm | -0.80 |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Sharks | Apr 14 | Sea Eagles | 17.90 |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Dragons | Apr 14 | Wests Tigers | 1.20 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Eels | Apr 14 | Titans | 15.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »