Top 14 Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 10.76 | 12.37 | -1.60 |
| Montpellier | 8.20 | 6.36 | 1.80 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.47 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| Section Paloise | 4.84 | 4.18 | 0.70 |
| Stade Francais | 4.68 | 5.68 | -1.00 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.28 | 4.97 | -0.70 |
| Clermont | 2.34 | 4.21 | -1.90 |
| Racing 92 | 1.47 | 3.59 | -2.10 |
| Toulon | 0.41 | -0.81 | 1.20 |
| Lyon | 0.32 | -0.94 | 1.30 |
| Bayonne | -1.40 | -2.02 | 0.60 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.75 | -0.29 | -1.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.73 | -5.39 | 0.70 |
| Vannes | -9.29 | -10.00 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne | Nov 01 | 19 – 14 | 14.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Racing 92 | Nov 01 | 37 – 30 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Vannes | Nov 01 | 48 – 25 | 15.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 01 | 69 – 10 | 13.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais | Nov 01 | 43 – 24 | 6.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Toulon | Nov 01 | 24 – 25 | 1.70 | FALSE |
| 7 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 02 | 34 – 14 | -0.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 | Nov 08 | Castres Olympique | 3.30 |
| 2 | Montpellier vs. Lyon | Nov 08 | Montpellier | 14.40 |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 08 | Section Paloise | 16.10 |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne | Nov 08 | Stade Rochelais | 12.20 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont | Nov 08 | Stade Toulousain | 14.90 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Stade Francais | Nov 08 | Toulon | 2.20 |
| 7 | Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 08 | Bordeaux Begles | -8.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »