Super 15 Predictions, Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 11, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 7.58 | 9.03 | -1.40 |
| Chiefs | 5.37 | 6.98 | -1.60 |
| Sharks | 4.10 | 4.57 | -0.50 |
| Bulls | 3.92 | 2.55 | 1.40 |
| Stormers | 3.70 | 3.34 | 0.40 |
| Brumbies | 2.77 | -1.06 | 3.80 |
| Blues | 2.08 | -3.02 | 5.10 |
| Reds | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.00 |
| Hurricanes | -0.14 | 4.40 | -4.50 |
| Cheetahs | -1.30 | -4.16 | 2.90 |
| Waratahs | -5.09 | -4.10 | -1.00 |
| Highlanders | -6.13 | -3.41 | -2.70 |
| Force | -8.34 | -9.73 | 1.40 |
| Kings | -10.51 | -10.00 | -0.50 |
| Rebels | -13.27 | -10.64 | -2.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 61 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Force | Apr 19 | 22 – 16 | 13.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Chiefs | Apr 19 | 25 – 20 | -8.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Highlanders | Apr 20 | 24 – 8 | 16.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Reds vs. Brumbies | Apr 20 | 19 – 19 | 0.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Cheetahs | Apr 20 | 6 – 12 | 10.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Kings vs. Bulls | Apr 20 | 0 – 34 | -7.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Stormers | Apr 26 | Hurricanes | 0.20 |
| 2 | Reds vs. Blues | Apr 26 | Reds | 2.40 |
| 3 | Chiefs vs. Sharks | Apr 27 | Chiefs | 5.30 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Force | Apr 27 | Brumbies | 13.60 |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Waratahs | Apr 27 | Bulls | 13.00 |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Kings | Apr 27 | Cheetahs | 11.70 |
| 7 | Crusaders vs. Rebels | Apr 28 | Crusaders | 24.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »