NRL Predictions, Round 13
Team Ratings for Round 13
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 13, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 9.55 | 5.23 | 4.30 |
| Storm | 7.39 | 9.73 | -2.30 |
| Roosters | 6.08 | -5.68 | 11.80 |
| Sea Eagles | 5.55 | 4.78 | 0.80 |
| Panthers | 2.25 | -6.58 | 8.80 |
| Knights | 1.78 | 0.44 | 1.30 |
| Sharks | 1.05 | -1.78 | 2.80 |
| Raiders | 0.43 | 2.03 | -1.60 |
| Titans | 0.21 | -1.85 | 2.10 |
| Bulldogs | 0.15 | 7.33 | -7.20 |
| Cowboys | -0.71 | 7.05 | -7.80 |
| Dragons | -3.15 | -0.33 | -2.80 |
| Broncos | -3.96 | -1.55 | -2.40 |
| Warriors | -4.71 | -10.01 | 5.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.21 | -3.71 | -7.50 |
| Eels | -14.44 | -8.82 | -5.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 92 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.96%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Dragons | May 31 | 16 – 14 | 9.24 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rabbitohs vs. Knights | Jun 01 | 25 – 18 | 13.58 | TRUE |
| 3 | Titans vs. Cowboys | Jun 02 | 31 – 12 | 2.02 | TRUE |
| 4 | Broncos vs. Warriors | Jun 03 | 18 – 56 | 16.07 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 13
Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Roosters | Jun 07 | Roosters | -16.00 |
| 2 | Knights vs. Dragons | Jun 08 | Knights | 9.40 |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Bulldogs | Jun 08 | Cowboys | 3.60 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 09 | Sea Eagles | -5.80 |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 09 | Panthers | 18.00 |
| 6 | Storm vs. Sharks | Jun 09 | Storm | 10.80 |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Jun 10 | Raiders | 8.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »