Super 15 Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 8.02 | 8.80 | -0.80 |
| Waratahs | 7.48 | 1.67 | 5.80 |
| Sharks | 5.65 | 4.57 | 1.10 |
| Hurricanes | 3.40 | -1.44 | 4.80 |
| Bulls | 2.62 | 4.87 | -2.30 |
| Brumbies | 2.13 | 4.12 | -2.00 |
| Stormers | 1.98 | 4.38 | -2.40 |
| Blues | 1.76 | -1.92 | 3.70 |
| Chiefs | 1.13 | 4.38 | -3.20 |
| Highlanders | -1.37 | -4.48 | 3.10 |
| Reds | -3.16 | 0.58 | -3.70 |
| Force | -4.40 | -5.37 | 1.00 |
| Cheetahs | -4.52 | 0.12 | -4.60 |
| Lions | -6.02 | -6.93 | 0.90 |
| Rebels | -7.70 | -6.36 | -1.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 106 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Chiefs | Jun 27 | 29 – 25 | -0.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Reds | Jun 27 | 20 – 36 | -0.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hurricanes vs. Crusaders | Jun 28 | 16 – 9 | -3.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Waratahs vs. Brumbies | Jun 28 | 39 – 8 | 4.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Force vs. Blues | Jun 28 | 14 – 40 | 0.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Hurricanes | Jul 04 | Chiefs | 0.20 |
| 2 | Lions vs. Rebels | Jul 04 | Lions | 5.70 |
| 3 | Crusaders vs. Blues | Jul 05 | Crusaders | 8.80 |
| 4 | Force vs. Reds | Jul 05 | Force | 1.30 |
| 5 | Stormers vs. Bulls | Jul 05 | Stormers | 1.90 |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Sharks | Jul 05 | Sharks | -7.70 |
| 7 | Waratahs vs. Highlanders | Jul 06 | Waratahs | 12.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »