Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1
Some South African readers have asked for Currie Cup predictions and since the methodology should work, I have decided to provide them. Interestingly, the home ground advantage in past games appears to be large, and the predictability of games has varied enormously. Last year’s competition was very hard to predict it seems.
Team Ratings for Round 1
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Province | 4.68 | 4.68 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | 3.30 | 3.30 | 0.00 |
| Blue Bulls | 0.87 | 0.87 | -0.00 |
| Lions | -1.52 | -1.52 | 0.00 |
| Cheetahs | -3.10 | -3.10 | 0.00 |
| Griquas | -6.38 | -6.38 | -0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Griquas | Aug 09 | Sharks | 17.20 |
| 2 | Lions vs. Cheetahs | Aug 10 | Lions | 9.10 |
| 3 | Western Province vs. Blue Bulls | Aug 10 | Western Province | 11.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Dear David, Why would your starting rating for the 2013 Currie Cup differs so much from the closing log point before the play-offs. The Lions ended 2nd on the log. In the semi final they lost to the winners of the CC in the 83rd minute. The Bulls (5 log point behind the Lions) lost to the runners up but ended with a positive ranking in 3rd spot but the Lions with a negative rating in 4th. It doesn’t make sense to me. Please help
Regards
Pierre
11 years ago
I actually have not looked at the results you mention. I simply use a statistical prediction method which has worked well for other rugby competitions. I do note that you seem to be mentioning recent games though, and the method does take in a lot of past history, not just the most recent results.
I have some trepidation about my predictions in this case however which I believe I flagged in my initial comments. You might wish to reread them.
11 years ago