AFL Predictions for Quarter Final
Team Ratings for Quarter Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 24.44 | 26.20 | -1.80 |
| Sydney Swans | 23.04 | 0.56 | 22.50 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 22.75 | 6.56 | 16.20 |
| Geelong Cats | 22.64 | 26.75 | -4.10 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 16.57 | 22.83 | -6.30 |
| Adelaide Crows | 14.94 | 15.32 | -0.40 |
| Carlton Blues | 9.31 | -4.77 | 14.10 |
| Melbourne Demons | 9.05 | 1.64 | 7.40 |
| Western Bulldogs | 5.03 | 26.06 | -21.00 |
| Collingwood | 3.06 | 11.76 | -8.70 |
| GWS Giants | -0.48 | 9.54 | -10.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -1.87 | 10.24 | -12.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.24 | -7.63 | 4.40 |
| North Melbourne | -10.83 | -21.71 | 10.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -18.07 | -14.65 | -3.40 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.36 | -39.36 | 6.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -33.74 | -29.44 | -4.30 |
| Essendon Bombers | -37.26 | -27.89 | -9.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 209 matches played, 148 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood | Aug 28 | 96 – 93 | 1.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Melbourne Demons vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 29 | 55 – 74 | 3.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Quarter Finals
Here are the predictions for Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Sept 03 | Fremantle Dockers | 17.20 |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues | Sept 04 | Geelong Cats | 2.30 |
| 3 | Sydney Swans vs. Brisbane Lions | Sept 05 | Sydney Swans | 9.60 |
| 4 | Adelaide Crows vs. Western Bulldogs | Sept 05 | Adelaide Crows | 20.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »