ITM Cup Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 14.93 | 10.90 | 4.00 |
| Tasman | 14.34 | 12.86 | 1.50 |
| Taranaki | 8.00 | 7.70 | 0.30 |
| Auckland | 5.47 | 5.14 | 0.30 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.91 | -0.57 | 5.50 |
| Wellington | 4.89 | -4.62 | 9.50 |
| Counties Manukau | -0.43 | 7.86 | -8.30 |
| Otago | -3.87 | -4.84 | 1.00 |
| Waikato | -4.46 | -6.96 | 2.50 |
| Manawatu | -4.50 | -1.52 | -3.00 |
| Bay of Plenty | -9.01 | -9.77 | 0.80 |
| Southland | -10.43 | -6.01 | -4.40 |
| North Harbour | -10.97 | -10.54 | -0.40 |
| Northland | -12.86 | -3.64 | -9.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 38 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland vs. Manawatu | Sep 09 | 45 – 28 | 16.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waikato vs. Southland | Sep 10 | 30 – 25 | 11.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wellington vs. Tasman | Sep 11 | 17 – 36 | -2.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 12 | 28 – 20 | -9.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki | Sep 12 | 9 – 32 | -10.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 12 | 29 – 14 | 13.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Auckland vs. Otago | Sep 13 | 35 – 29 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Manawatu vs. Northland | Sep 13 | 42 – 17 | 9.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tasman vs. North Harbour | Sep 16 | Tasman | 29.30 |
| 2 | Wellington vs. Otago | Sep 17 | Wellington | 12.80 |
| 3 | Taranaki vs. Waikato | Sep 18 | Taranaki | 16.50 |
| 4 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty | Sep 19 | Hawke’s Bay | 17.90 |
| 5 | Southland vs. Manawatu | Sep 19 | Manawatu | -1.90 |
| 6 | Northland vs. Counties Manukau | Sep 19 | Counties Manukau | -8.40 |
| 7 | North Harbour vs. Canterbury | Sep 20 | Canterbury | -21.90 |
| 8 | Tasman vs. Auckland | Sep 20 | Tasman | 12.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »