Super 18 Predictions for Round 15
I have updated these predictions because I had not realised that the Chiefs Crusaders game was on a neutral ground.
Team Ratings for Round 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.81 | 9.84 | -0.00 |
| Highlanders | 7.08 | 6.80 | 0.30 |
| Hurricanes | 6.99 | 7.26 | -0.30 |
| Brumbies | 5.22 | 3.15 | 2.10 |
| Waratahs | 5.13 | 4.88 | 0.30 |
| Lions | 4.88 | -1.80 | 6.70 |
| Chiefs | 4.55 | 2.68 | 1.90 |
| Sharks | 2.86 | -1.64 | 4.50 |
| Stormers | 0.33 | -0.62 | 1.00 |
| Bulls | -3.03 | -0.74 | -2.30 |
| Blues | -4.91 | -5.51 | 0.60 |
| Rebels | -6.09 | -6.33 | 0.20 |
| Cheetahs | -7.01 | -9.27 | 2.30 |
| Jaguares | -9.08 | -10.00 | 0.90 |
| Reds | -9.34 | -9.81 | 0.50 |
| Force | -10.81 | -8.43 | -2.40 |
| Sunwolves | -18.62 | -10.00 | -8.60 |
| Kings | -21.19 | -13.66 | -7.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 108 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Highlanders | May 27 | 27 – 20 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Chiefs | May 27 | 45 – 25 | 2.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Kings vs. Jaguares | May 27 | 29 – 22 | -10.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Blues vs. Crusaders | May 28 | 21 – 26 | -12.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Sunwolves | May 28 | 66 – 5 | 23.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Cheetahs | May 28 | 31 – 24 | 11.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulls vs. Lions | May 28 | 20 – 56 | -0.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Rebels vs. Force | May 29 | 27 – 22 | 8.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 15
Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Jul 01 | Crusaders | -5.30 |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Reds | Jul 01 | Brumbies | 18.10 |
| 3 | Sunwolves vs. Waratahs | Jul 02 | Waratahs | -19.70 |
| 4 | Hurricanes vs. Blues | Jul 02 | Hurricanes | 15.40 |
| 5 | Rebels vs. Stormers | Jul 02 | Stormers | -2.40 |
| 6 | Cheetahs vs. Force | Jul 02 | Cheetahs | 7.80 |
| 7 | Kings vs. Highlanders | Jul 02 | Highlanders | -24.30 |
| 8 | Lions vs. Sharks | Jul 02 | Lions | 5.50 |
| 9 | Jaguares vs. Bulls | Jul 02 | Bulls | -2.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »