NRL Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.95 | 8.49 | 2.50 |
| Broncos | 7.45 | 4.36 | 3.10 |
| Raiders | 4.68 | 9.94 | -5.30 |
| Cowboys | 4.41 | 6.90 | -2.50 |
| Panthers | 2.90 | 6.08 | -3.20 |
| Sharks | 2.51 | 5.84 | -3.30 |
| Eels | 1.74 | -0.81 | 2.50 |
| Roosters | 0.86 | -1.17 | 2.00 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.08 | -2.98 | 3.10 |
| Dragons | -2.02 | -7.74 | 5.70 |
| Rabbitohs | -2.29 | -1.82 | -0.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -4.63 | -3.89 | -0.70 |
| Warriors | -4.87 | -6.02 | 1.10 |
| Bulldogs | -6.48 | -1.34 | -5.10 |
| Titans | -7.60 | -0.98 | -6.60 |
| Knights | -9.75 | -16.94 | 7.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 96 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Eels | Aug 03 | 4 – 20 | -2.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 04 | 24 – 26 | 4.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Storm | Aug 04 | 8 – 26 | -0.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Knights vs. Warriors | Aug 05 | 26 – 10 | -4.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Broncos | Aug 05 | 0 – 54 | -4.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Aug 05 | 12 – 30 | 4.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sea Eagles vs. Roosters | Aug 06 | 36 – 18 | -0.10 | FALSE |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 06 | 28 – 14 | 10.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs | Aug 10 | Rabbitohs | 7.70 |
| 2 | Eels vs. Knights | Aug 11 | Eels | 15.00 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Sharks | Aug 11 | Broncos | 8.40 |
| 4 | Dragons vs. Titans | Aug 12 | Dragons | 9.10 |
| 5 | Storm vs. Roosters | Aug 12 | Storm | 13.60 |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | Aug 12 | Panthers | 2.00 |
| 7 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Aug 13 | Raiders | -5.50 |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 13 | Sea Eagles | -1.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »