Posts from September 2017 (36)

September 5, 2017

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 15.68 8.49 7.20
Broncos 6.96 4.36 2.60
Raiders 4.07 9.94 -5.90
Sharks 2.98 5.84 -2.90
Cowboys 2.25 6.90 -4.70
Panthers 2.00 6.08 -4.10
Eels 1.26 -0.81 2.10
Roosters 0.93 -1.17 2.10
Sea Eagles -0.33 -2.98 2.60
Dragons -0.94 -7.74 6.80
Bulldogs -3.55 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -3.72 -3.89 0.20
Rabbitohs -3.84 -1.82 -2.00
Warriors -7.23 -6.02 -1.20
Titans -9.03 -0.98 -8.10
Knights -9.54 -16.94 7.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 192 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 31 10 – 20 0.50 FALSE
2 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Sep 01 22 – 16 9.20 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Titans Sep 02 20 – 16 15.20 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 02 28 – 12 -1.60 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Raiders Sep 02 32 – 6 13.10 TRUE
6 Knights vs. Sharks Sep 03 0 – 18 -7.30 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 20 – 26 8.40 FALSE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Sep 03 28 – 16 6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Sep 08 Broncos -2.50
2 Storm vs. Eels Sep 09 Storm 17.90
3 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Sep 09 Panthers -2.30
4 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sep 10 Sharks 4.20

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.88 2.15 2.70
Cheetahs 4.29 4.33 -0.00
Lions 3.05 7.41 -4.40
Western Province 2.99 3.30 -0.30
Blue Bulls 0.09 2.32 -2.20
Pumas -8.12 -10.63 2.50
Griquas -9.93 -11.62 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Griquas Sep 01 44 – 42 15.50 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Sep 02 45 – 15 3.50 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Pumas Sep 02 29 – 28 16.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Sep 08 Lions -8.50
2 Western Province vs. Cheetahs Sep 09 Western Province 3.20
3 Pumas vs. Sharks Sep 09 Sharks -8.50

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 18.66 14.78 3.90
Taranaki 4.65 7.04 -2.40
Tasman 4.59 9.54 -5.00
Counties Manukau 4.49 5.70 -1.20
North Harbour 4.09 -1.27 5.40
Wellington 3.23 -1.62 4.80
Waikato 2.42 -0.26 2.70
Otago 1.40 -0.34 1.70
Auckland -1.03 6.11 -7.10
Manawatu -3.04 -3.59 0.50
Bay of Plenty -4.60 -3.98 -0.60
Northland -7.27 -12.37 5.10
Hawke’s Bay -10.51 -5.85 -4.70
Southland -19.68 -16.50 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 27 – 35 7.00 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Aug 31 10 – 31 -0.10 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 01 10 – 53 -21.20 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 02 40 – 30 8.10 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Northland Sep 02 13 – 44 -3.50 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 30 – 27 4.40 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 03 29 – 31 1.30 FALSE
8 North Harbour vs. Auckland Sep 03 57 – 10 -0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 06 Wellington 17.70
2 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Sep 07 Counties Manukau 4.40
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 08 Canterbury 42.30
4 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 Manawatu 5.60
5 Auckland vs. Taranaki Sep 09 Taranaki -1.70
6 Northland vs. Waikato Sep 09 Waikato -5.70
7 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 10 Tasman 5.40
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 10 Otago -7.90

 

September 4, 2017

Before and after

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We’re in the interesting situation this election where it looks like political preferences are actually changing quite rapidly (though some of this could be changes in non-response that don’t show up in actual voting).

On Thursday, One News released a poll by Colmar Brunton that found Labour ahead of National by 43% to 41% for the first time in years.  Yesterday, NewsHub released a Reid Research poll with Labour back behind National 39% to 43%.

“Released” is important here. The Colmar Brunton poll was taken over August 26-30. The Reid Research poll was taken over August 22-30. That is, despite being released  later, the Reid Research poll was (on average) taken earlier. Comments (and even analysis) of polls often ignore the interview time and focus on the release date, but here we can see why the code of conduct for pollers requires the interview period to be described.

A difference of 4 percentage points in Labour’s support is quite large for two polls of this size (though not out of the question just from sampling error). If the polls were really discrete events four days apart, it would be plausible to argue they showed Labour’s support had stopped increasing — that the Ardern effect had reached its limit. If the two polls were taken over exactly the same period, the most plausible conclusion would be that the true support was in between and that we knew nothing more about Labour’s trajectory. With the Sunday poll actually taken slightly earlier, the difference is still likely to mostly be noise, but to the (very limited) extent that it says anything about trajectory, the story is positive for Labour.

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Stat of the Week Competition: September 2 – 8 2017

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Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher.

Here’s how it works:

  • Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday September 8 2017.
  • Statistics can be bad, exemplary or fascinating.
  • The statistic must be in the NZ media during the period of September 2 – 8 2017 inclusive.
  • Quote the statistic, when and where it was published and tell us why it should be our Stat of the Week.

Next Monday at midday we’ll announce the winner of this week’s Stat of the Week competition, and start a new one.

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Stat of the Week Competition Discussion: September 2 – 8 2017

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If you’d like to comment on or debate any of this week’s Stat of the Week nominations, please do so below!

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