September 5, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 18.66 14.78 3.90
Taranaki 4.65 7.04 -2.40
Tasman 4.59 9.54 -5.00
Counties Manukau 4.49 5.70 -1.20
North Harbour 4.09 -1.27 5.40
Wellington 3.23 -1.62 4.80
Waikato 2.42 -0.26 2.70
Otago 1.40 -0.34 1.70
Auckland -1.03 6.11 -7.10
Manawatu -3.04 -3.59 0.50
Bay of Plenty -4.60 -3.98 -0.60
Northland -7.27 -12.37 5.10
Hawke’s Bay -10.51 -5.85 -4.70
Southland -19.68 -16.50 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Auckland vs. Waikato Aug 30 27 – 35 7.00 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Aug 31 10 – 31 -0.10 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Sep 01 10 – 53 -21.20 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Manawatu Sep 02 40 – 30 8.10 TRUE
5 Southland vs. Northland Sep 02 13 – 44 -3.50 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 30 – 27 4.40 TRUE
7 Waikato vs. Tasman Sep 03 29 – 31 1.30 FALSE
8 North Harbour vs. Auckland Sep 03 57 – 10 -0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 06 Wellington 17.70
2 Counties Manukau vs. North Harbour Sep 07 Counties Manukau 4.40
3 Canterbury vs. Southland Sep 08 Canterbury 42.30
4 Manawatu vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 08 Manawatu 5.60
5 Auckland vs. Taranaki Sep 09 Taranaki -1.70
6 Northland vs. Waikato Sep 09 Waikato -5.70
7 Tasman vs. Wellington Sep 10 Tasman 5.40
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago Sep 10 Otago -7.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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