October 10, 2017

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

After trying to deal with the Cheetahs playing their first team in the Pro14 and a second or third team in the Currie Cup, I have come up with the appropriate solution, which is to have two separate Cheetahs teams. Cheetahs is the team when there is no Pro14 game, so the first choice players should be playing. Cheetahs2 is the team when there is a Pro14 game that week, so the reserve players will be playing in the Currie Cup.

I arbitrarily started the Cheetahs2 at a rating of -30, which is a bit of a rough guess based on results so far, and reran all my predictions so far to produce this weeks predictions. Note that the Cheetahs2 rating has not changed very much over the games so far, nor has the rating for the Cheetahs.

I would welcome comments on the assumptions underlying this approach.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.08 4.33 0.70
Sharks 4.45 2.15 2.30
Western Province 3.47 3.30 0.20
Lions 2.66 7.41 -4.70
Blue Bulls 0.09 2.32 -2.20
Pumas -8.17 -10.63 2.50
Griquas -10.19 -11.62 1.40
Cheetahs2 -30.14 -30.00 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs2 vs. Blue Bulls Oct 06 36 – 64 -25.30 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Oct 07 35 – 38 7.30 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Western Province Oct 08 29 – 20 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Pumas Oct 13 Blue Bulls 12.80
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 14 Lions 2.50
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Oct 14 Sharks 5.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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