October 10, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.32 14.78 1.50
Wellington 11.48 -1.62 13.10
Taranaki 10.66 7.04 3.60
Tasman 4.74 9.54 -4.80
North Harbour 3.14 -1.27 4.40
Otago 2.22 -0.34 2.60
Counties Manukau -0.03 5.70 -5.70
Auckland -1.08 6.11 -7.20
Bay of Plenty -1.32 -3.98 2.70
Manawatu -3.19 -3.59 0.40
Northland -3.26 -12.37 9.10
Waikato -3.35 -0.26 -3.10
Hawke’s Bay -14.33 -5.85 -8.50
Southland -24.60 -16.50 -8.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. North Harbour Oct 04 21 – 14 4.80 TRUE
2 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 05 24 – 29 2.10 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 06 43 – 55 14.40 FALSE
4 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 07 28 – 36 11.00 FALSE
5 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 07 34 – 7 12.40 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Wellington Oct 07 12 – 61 -28.40 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 08 31 – 18 8.90 TRUE
8 Waikato vs. North Harbour Oct 08 11 – 13 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Oct 11 Taranaki 17.90
2 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 12 Wellington 18.70
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Oct 13 Canterbury -13.40
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Oct 14 Bay of Plenty 6.00
5 Otago vs. Southland Oct 14 Otago 30.80
6 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Oct 14 Tasman -0.80
7 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Oct 15 Taranaki -3.50
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 15 Manawatu -7.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

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