Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 16.32 | 14.78 | 1.50 |
| Wellington | 11.48 | -1.62 | 13.10 |
| Taranaki | 10.66 | 7.04 | 3.60 |
| Tasman | 4.74 | 9.54 | -4.80 |
| North Harbour | 3.14 | -1.27 | 4.40 |
| Otago | 2.22 | -0.34 | 2.60 |
| Counties Manukau | -0.03 | 5.70 | -5.70 |
| Auckland | -1.08 | 6.11 | -7.20 |
| Bay of Plenty | -1.32 | -3.98 | 2.70 |
| Manawatu | -3.19 | -3.59 | 0.40 |
| Northland | -3.26 | -12.37 | 9.10 |
| Waikato | -3.35 | -0.26 | -3.10 |
| Hawke’s Bay | -14.33 | -5.85 | -8.50 |
| Southland | -24.60 | -16.50 | -8.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 62 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tasman vs. North Harbour | Oct 04 | 21 – 14 | 4.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 05 | 24 – 29 | 2.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Canterbury vs. Taranaki | Oct 06 | 43 – 55 | 14.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Otago vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 07 | 28 – 36 | 11.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 07 | 34 – 7 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Southland vs. Wellington | Oct 07 | 12 – 61 | -28.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Tasman vs. Auckland | Oct 08 | 31 – 18 | 8.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | Waikato vs. North Harbour | Oct 08 | 11 – 13 | -2.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taranaki vs. Manawatu | Oct 11 | Taranaki | 17.90 |
| 2 | Wellington vs. Northland | Oct 12 | Wellington | 18.70 |
| 3 | Auckland vs. Canterbury | Oct 13 | Canterbury | -13.40 |
| 4 | Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato | Oct 14 | Bay of Plenty | 6.00 |
| 5 | Otago vs. Southland | Oct 14 | Otago | 30.80 |
| 6 | Counties Manukau vs. Tasman | Oct 14 | Tasman | -0.80 |
| 7 | North Harbour vs. Taranaki | Oct 15 | Taranaki | -3.50 |
| 8 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu | Oct 15 | Manawatu | -7.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »