October 25, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.35 14.78 0.60
Wellington 12.26 -1.62 13.90
Taranaki 6.90 7.04 -0.10
North Harbour 6.48 -1.27 7.80
Tasman 3.60 9.54 -5.90
Counties Manukau 2.02 5.70 -3.70
Otago 0.25 -0.34 0.60
Bay of Plenty -0.14 -3.98 3.80
Auckland -0.33 6.11 -6.40
Waikato -3.17 -0.26 -2.90
Northland -4.04 -12.37 8.30
Manawatu -4.54 -3.59 -1.00
Hawke’s Bay -13.26 -5.85 -7.40
Southland -23.99 -16.50 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 20 49 – 21 18.60 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Oct 21 48 – 32 0.90 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 21 35 – 24 13.30 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 21 29 – 30 9.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 27 Wellington 16.40
2 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 28 Canterbury 15.80

 

avatar

David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Add a comment

First time commenting? Please use your real first name and surname and read the Comment Policy.